Bold 2nd-Half Predictions for the Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are heading into the All Star break in first place in the National League West. Their four-game lead over San Francisco is encouraging given everything that has gone wrong: a litany of injuries to the pitching staff, Yasiel Puig’s DL stint and a bullpen collapse.

We should expect the second half of the season to go much better for the Dodgers. Among other things, the July trade deadline means that the front office is likely to improve the devastated starting rotation. Additionally, Clayton Kershaw has already begun his regression to the mean and has been performing as one of the best pitchers in baseball. The lineup should also improve with Yasiel Puig on the field everyday.

As the Dodgers head toward the playoffs, they should be significantly better. How exactly that will happen, though, is a bit less certain. The following predictions are, as the title of this article states, “bold.” They are not, however, impossible. Instead, I would characterize them as unlikely.

Clayton Kershaw Will Finish in the Top 3 of Cy Young Voting

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The scandal du jour is Kershaw’s exclusion from the All-Star game. He is the reigning MVP and Cy Young winner, so the fact that he may not be in baseball’s premier talent exhibition is a bit jarring. He is, of course, a Final Vote candidate, so he may still make the team.

However, he was not selected because of his subpar “traditional” statistics. Through 17 starts, Kershaw is just 5-6 with a 3.08 ERA. Record, though, is a ridiculous way to measure a pitcher’s performance. Run support is an aspect of the game that pitchers have no control over, so we cannot blame Kershaw for the offense’s inability to win his games.

Cy Young voting has become more enlightened, as evidenced by Felix Hernandez’s Cy Young in a year he went just 13-12. I expect that voters will have enough time to research and realize that Kershaw has, in fact, been essentially as good this year as he was last year.

Also relevant, though, is the fact that his ERA is dropping. His FIP and xFIP are fantastic, but his BABIP this year is .301—and it was .378 in April. As his batted ball luck has reverted to his career norm, his overall numbers have stabilized as well. His ERA in June was lower than it was in April or May, and his FIP and xFIP have been great all season. And so with the extra three months of the season, his continued excellent performance should improve his overall numbers and make him look like his traditionally dominant self.

There Will Not Be a Dramatic Trade

John Locher/Associated Press

Do not expect SS Corey Seager to be traded.

The pitching rotation is a clear problem. Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are out for the season, and Brett Anderson’s historically shaky left shoulder is the only body part standing between them and disaster. Carlos Frias and Mike Bolsinger have filled in admirably but neither has pitched deep into games, which has taxed the bullpen.

Don Mattingly, though, has already announced that he plans to split the rotation so that the two youngsters do not pitch back-to-back but will instead be separated by one of Kershaw or Zack Greinke.

Even with that quick fix, this is not a viable playoff rotation, and the expectation is that the front office will rectify that problem. I expect they will—they have to if they are serious about making a World Series run. However, I do not believe it will be a big splash. Johnny Cueto could be a possibility if his price drops far enough, but I do not expect it to. ESPN's Mark Saxon reported that the Dodgers could pursue Jordan Zimmermann or David Price, but I do not believe that is reasonable. Both the Nationals and Tigers would want a huge payment, and this front office does not appear to want to mortgage the future.

It is still too early to truly determine who will be available, so I don’t know what the trade will look like. But I do not believe that one of the Dodgers’ elite prospects (Corey Seager and Julio Urias) will be dealt, and I would be extremely surprised if either Grant Holmes or Jose De Leon were shipped out as well.

Corey Seager Will Not Make His Debut Before September 1

John Locher/Associated Press

I readily admit that I could look foolish with this prediction as early as next week. Jimmy Rollins has struggled mightily, and Seager is a ready-made in-house replacement. However, there has been no real indication that the Dodgers are considering benching Rollins, and they would never call up Seager if he were not going to play every day.

Additionally, Andrew Friedman has said that a Seager call-up is “not imminent.” While there is no particular reason to take him at his word on this matter, that is a firmer statement than he was required to make. And while the Dodgers are in first place, they do not have a real incentive to bring up their top prospect. Even while Rollins is struggling, they remain in playoff position. And for as long as that is the case, they should feel no urgency to change anything.

And once September rolls around, the Dodgers can bring up Seager without any consequences; his playing time will not decrease because the minor league season will be over, and Rollins will not have to be released. Instead, he can have a month to get his feet wet in the majors, and he can still be added to the playoff roster if he sets the world on fire.