7 MLB Teams That'll Have a Worse Record in 2025
A year ago, the Texas Rangers had a World Series hangover, going from winning 90 games and their first title in 2023 to just 78 in what was a very winnable AL West in 2024.
As much as everyone wants to be optimistic this time of the year, there inevitably will be teams who underperform relative to what they did a year ago, whether it's by one win or a much larger number.
With that acknowledged, here are seven teams we believe will have worse records in 2025 than they did in 2024.
Milwaukee Brewers
1 of 7
Perhaps we're making the same mistake as a year ago, when the Brewers seemed destined to fall off a cliff post-Craig Counsell and Corbin Burnes, only for first-year skipper Pat Murphy to win NL Manager of the Year as the Crew captured the NL Central with 93 wins.
But while the Brewers will get Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff back from injuries, eventually constantly losing stars catches up to you.
The Brewers traded closer Devin Williams—perhaps the best reliever in baseball since he entered the league in 2019—to the New York Yankees in December.
Shortstop Willy Adames—who homered 32 times and drove in 112 runs for the Brewers a year ago—departed for a seven-year, $182 million deal with the San Francisco Giants in free agency.
Even with the possibility for a bounce-back season from Rhys Hoskins and continued development from Jackson Chourio, it feels hard to imagine the Brewers winning 93 or more games again in 2025.
Houston Astros
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The Astros are difficult to evaluate. Not only do they still have Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez and Josh Hader, but they added Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes in the offseason. What's more, they won the AL West with just 88 wins last year.
Still, the Astros lost franchise icon Alex Bregman in free agency. They traded away Kyle Tucker—probably one of the 10-best position players in baseball—ahead of his contract year. It's just hard to square losing those two players, even if you did relatively well in trying to backfill their presences, and not facing any sort of dip the following season.
When you consider the possibility that the four other teams in the AL West—the Seattle Mariners, Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Athletics—are all better than they were a year ago, we'll take the under on 88 wins for the Astros in 2025, even if it's only by bit.
St. Louis Cardinals
3 of 7
The vibes are kind of weird in St. Louis. This was supposed to be an offseason about shedding payroll and reinvesting that money in player development. The problem is neither Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray were inclined to change teams, and a trade that Nolan Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade clause for never materialized. By all accounts, St. Louis never seriously entertained moving star closer Ryan Helsley.
So the Cardinals don't look dramatically different from the team that won 83 games a year ago, outside of not bringing back Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in free agency. Is there a scenario where Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar reach their ceilings this season and the Cardinals win 87 games? Perhaps.
Still, players aren't blind to what management thinks about their chances to win in 2025. The Cardinals have questionable starting pitching depth after Gray and Erick Fedde, and there's a chance they actually sell in earnest this summer if they aren't in position to win an NL Central where the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds both look likely to be better than they were a year ago.
Cleveland Guardians
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Like the Brewers, the Guardians seem to have mastered churning their roster and somehow continuing to contend even when stars depart. But they are definitely a team that you could see regressing in 2025, especially if the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins all post winning records again.
It's cool that Carlos Santana is back for a third stint in Cleveland, but he's going to turn 39 in April. In all likelihood, he'll be a downgrade from Josh Naylor, who was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks after hitting 31 home runs and driving in 108 runs in 2024.
Offloading the contract of Andrés Giménez in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays was probably a smart long-term move with No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana possibly in play as soon as the second half of 2025. But Giménez is arguably the best defensive player at any position in baseball, so it's going to be impossible to replace his glove.
A year ago, Cleveland won 92 games with one of the greatest bullpens in MLB history. Closer Emmanuel Clase finished third in AL Cy Young Award voting after recording 47 saves and posting a minuscule 0.61 ERA. Cade Smith, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis all were among the best relievers in the sport as well. Even a small regression from this unit will put more pressure on a starting rotation that still looks pretty thin after Tanner Bibee, even once former AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber returns.
If recent history is any indication, the Guardians will find their way into the postseason and somehow win a playoff series with John Means or another injury-plagued veteran making meaningful starts. But common sense tells you that Stephen Vogt's club is poised for some regression in 2025.
San Diego Padres
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If the Padres had defeated the eventual World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers Game 5 of the NLDS, they may very well have gone on to win a title themselves.
But in addition to the Dodgers managing to find a way to get better this offseason, the Diamondbacks and Giants both improved this winter. Mind you, Arizona already won 89 games a year ago, while the Giants won 80. If both those teams improve by even a few games—and the Dodgers probably win 100+ after coming out victorious 98 times last season—someone in the NL West is going to dip.
Even this deep into Spring Training, we're not 100% sure that one of Dylan Cease, Michael King or Robert Suarez won't be traded before the season starts. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller did add Nick Pivetta, Connor Joe and Jason Heyward in free agency, but with a seemingly-restricted budget, the Padres saw Tanner Scott, Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim all leave in free agency.
Mike Schildt's team should still be competitive for an NL Wild Card spot. But considering that the Diamondbacks likely have leapfrogged them as the biggest competition to the Dodgers in the NL West, the Padres are unlikely to match the 93 wins they posted last season.
New York Yankees
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The Yankees were far too reliant on two players—Aaron Judge and Juan Soto—to carry their offense a year ago. But they were arguably the two best hitters in baseball, and both Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres managed to get red-hot in time for them to win their first AL pennant since 2009.
In the offseason, Soto departed in free agency for the crosstown-rival Mets. Spreading some of that money around to the likes of Goldschmidt, Williams, Cody Bellinger and Max Fried could make the Yankees a more well-rounded team in 2025. But would you rather have Soto—who hit 41 home runs and posted 8.1 WAR last year—than that quartet? You bet.
Also, the Yankees still have a serious question mark at third base; you don't really have a good feel for how good Jazz Chisholm Jr. is; and they could be in trouble if Jasson Dominguez doesn't work in left field. Stanton (elbows) and DJ LeMahieu (left calf) are at advanced age and already injured. Torres departed for the Tigers in free agency.
It's hard to lose a Hall of Fame-caliber hitter at the height of his powers and not regress to some degree the following season. Add in some of the bad vibes the Yankees have so far in camp and they seem likely to win less than the 94 games they did a year ago. It's just a matter of how far they dip.
Detroit Tigers
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We're not going to project the Tigers to fall off a cliff, because they brought back Jack Flaherty in free agency, took a flier on the aforementioned Torres and should get more than 87 games from Kerry Carpenter, arguably their best offensive player.
But the Tigers went 47-50 prior to the All-Star Break last year, and traded Flaherty to the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline because they didn't believe they were playoff contenders. As it turned out, shortstop Trey Sweeney proved to be a nice get in return for Flaherty, and the Tigers went on a magical run back to the postseason for the first time since 2014.
Still, there were times during the postseason where you liked at the lineups that A.J. Hinch was running out and wondered how the Tigers were a team that not only reached the postseason, but upset the Astros in the ALWCS. They were connected to Bregman for much of the offseason, but didn't ultimately land him. Torres was a smart guy to take a gamble on with a one-year prove-it deal, but feels underwhelming as the biggest offseason addition to a lineup that probably needed to add multiple veteran bats.
It's also fair to wonder if Flaherty and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal—both of whom have dealt with injuries in the past—will combine for the 354 innings they logged last season.
We're not saying the Tigers are going to post a losing record. But if you set aside what felt like an unsustainable run late last year, their roster seems more like one that would produce 82 wins, as opposed to the 86 they wound up winning in 2024.
