Fallen 2024-25 Preseason Contenders Still Capable of March Madness Runs
Every year, there are at least a handful of teams that enter the new men's college basketball season with lofty expectations, only to stumble out of the gates and steadily slide down the rankings as the regular season unfolds.
In many cases, those early struggles are unable to be salvaged and it ends up being a lost season, but sometimes a team can get hot when it matters most and overcome a slow start to make some serious noise in the NCAA tournament.
Ahead, we've highlighted fallen preseason contenders who are still capable of making a March Madness run.
In order to be eligible for inclusion, a team had to appear in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, no longer be ranked, not be projected for better than a No. 8 seed in the Bracket Matrix and still appear in the top 75 in the KenPom rankings, meaning there is still a conceivable path to an NCAA tournament at-large berth.
Texas Longhorns
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Preseason AP Ranking: No. 19
KenPom Ranking: No. 32
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 seed
Head coach Rodney Terry had a busy offseason rebuilding the Texas Longhorns roster, with Max Abmas, Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter and Dillon Mitchell all either graduating or transferring after accounting for nearly 65 percent of the team's scoring a year ago.
However, expectations were still high thanks to a stacked group of transfer portal pickups that included Arthur Kaluma (Kansas State), Jordan Pope (Oregon State), Tramon Mark (Arkansas), Jayson Kent (Indiana State) and Julian Larry (Indiana State) who all averaged double figures last season.
Kaluma (13.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Pope (11.5 PPG) have both been solid, and 5-star freshman Tre Johnson (19.0 PPG, 2.5 APG) has been phenomenal, but the pieces have not all fit together as hoped so far.
After an 11-2 showing in non-conference play, it has been tough going in a stacked SEC. And with a loss to Alabama on Tuesday, Texas fell to 4-8 in conference play.
The good news is, those four wins include Quad 1 victories over Missouri and Texas A&M, and there's a good chance a losing record in SEC play is not going to automatically eliminate a team from tournament consideration this year.
However, the Longhorns also can't afford to keep stacking up losses, so now is the time if they are going to get hot and make a late-season push.
Arkansas Razorbacks
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Preseason AP Ranking: No. 16
KenPom Ranking: No. 41
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 seed
The Arkansas Razorbacks were one of the most compelling teams of the offseason, starting with John Calipari taking over as head coach after Eric Musselman took the USC job.
Calipari essentially had to rebuild the roster from the ground up, with Trevon Brazile (8.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) as the only notable returning player from a team that finished 16-17 after starting the season at No. 14 in the AP poll.
With a mix of players he brought with him from Kentucky (Adou Thiero, D.J. Wagner, Zvonimir Ivisic), big names from the transfer portal (Johnell Davis via Florida Atlantic, Jonas Aidoo via Tennessee) and his usual haul of touted freshmen (Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, Billy Richmond), he assembled a roster that looked capable of making some serious noise in the SEC race.
Even with early losses to Baylor and Illinois, the Razorbacks still hovered around the bottom of the AP poll during an 11-2 start, but that was brought to a screeching halt when they lost five in a row to begin SEC play.
They have since recovered to go 3-2 in their last five games, including a huge win against Kentucky in Calipari's return to Lexington.
They will have ample opportunities to continue building their resume, including back-to-back road games against No. 8 Texas A&M (Feb. 15) and No. 1 Auburn (Feb. 19) in the next week.
North Carolina Tar Heels
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Preseason AP Ranking: No. 9
KenPom Ranking: No. 47
Bracket Matrix: N/A
After a disappointing 2022-23 season, the North Carolina Tar Heels bounced back in a big way last year, securing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and reaching the Elite Eight before they were knocked off by Alabama.
With leading scorer RJ Davis back for another year, both Seth Trimble and Elliot Cadeau poised to step into large roles offensively, and a pair of incoming 5-star freshmen in Ian Jackson and Drake Powell, they looked like a serious threat atop the ACC standings once again.
However, they started the season with a 4-4 record, including a pair of losses at the Maui Invitational, and by the Dec. 9 poll they had fallen out of the Top 25 entirely.
That was followed by an 8-2 stretch of games that had them knocking on the door for a spot in the rankings once again, but they have stumbled of late, losing five of their last seven following Monday's loss on the road against Clemson.
They are just 3-6 in road games and 2-3 in neutral-site games, and they rank outside the Top 50 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.
Despite all of that, the Tar Heels still have a potential path to the tournament. If they can put together a strong showing over their next six games against a weak ACC field, and then pull off an upset of rival Duke in the regular-season finale on March 8, they will likely be right back in the projected field.
Baylor Bears
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Preseason AP Ranking: No. 8
KenPom Ranking: No. 27
Bracket Matrix: No. 8 seed
Despite losing Ja'Kobe Walter, Jalen Bridges, Rayj Dennis and Yves Missi to the NBA from a team that landed a No. 3 seed in last year's NCAA tournament, the Baylor Bears were still picked to finish fourth in the preseason Big 12 poll.
Head coach Scott Drew added transfer portal hot commodities Norchad Omier (Miami) and Jeremy Roach (Duke) to join returning starter Jayden Nunn (10.5 PPG), but the biggest name on the roster is prized freshman V.J. Edgecombe.
Edgecombe (15.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and fellow freshman Robert Wright (12.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) have both made an immediate impact, while Omier (15.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG) continues to be a double-double machine.
However, a 101-63 loss to Gonzaga in the season opener set the tone for what has been a season filled with blowout losses against top-tier competition. They also suffered double-digit defeats at the hands of Tennessee (77-62), Iowa State (74-55), Texas Tech (73-59) and Houston (76-65).
All told, the Bears are 4-8 in Quad 1 games while also sporting a Quad 3 loss at home to TCU on their resume, so they have work to do if they want to be viewed as a serious contender and not just a fringe tournament team.
Home games against Arizona and Houston down the stretch will give them a golden opportunity to pad their resume.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Preseason AP Ranking: No. 6
KenPom Ranking: No. 13
Bracket Matrix: No. 9 seed
The Gonzaga Bulldogs returned as much talent as any team in the country, with Graham Ike (16.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG), Nolan Hickman (14.0 PPG), Ryan Nembhard (12.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG), Braden Huff (9.3 PPG), Ben Gregg (9.0 PPG) and Dusty Stromer (5.3 PPG) all returning from what was a 27-win team a year ago.
On top of that, they also added Khalif Battle (Arkansas) and Michael Ajayi (Pepperdine) in the transfer portal, leaving the Bulldogs looking like a potential contender for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament after settling for a No. 5 seed the last year.
They are just 2-6 in Quad 1 games, and those two victories came against Baylor and San Diego State, two teams that are currently unranked and far from the upper echelon of contenders.
On a positive note, they do rank No. 7 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 13 overall in his rankings. No team ranked inside the top 20 has missed the NCAA tournament since 2018.
The Bulldogs still face Saint Mary's once and San Francisco twice, and those are the two teams they are currently staring up at in the WCC standings, so there's still time for them to build some momentum heading into March Madness.
UConn Huskies
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Preseason AP Ranking: No. 3
KenPom Ranking: No. 34
Bracket Matrix: No. 8 seed
On the heels of back-to-back national titles and an absolutely dominant 37-3 season last year, the UConn Huskies were bound for some level of regression, but expectations were still high enough for them to check in No. 3 in the preseason AP poll.
Alex Karaban (13.3 PPG) was the only returning starter from last year's team, but Hassan Diarra (6.1 PPG), Samson Johnson (5.4 PPG) and Solomon Ball (3.3 PPG) all returned as role players capable of stepping into a larger role.
That group, coupled with Michigan transfer Tarris Reed Jr. and 5-star freshman Liam McNeeley, gave the Huskies a deep enough core of talent to believe they could again contend for a national title.
However, McNeeley missed almost the entire month of January with a high ankle sprain. And while the offense has filled in the gaps to rank No. 12 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency, the defense ranks all the way down at No. 108 in that same metric.
A neutral-site win over Gonzaga and road victories over Marquette and Texas are part of a 4-4 record in Quad 1 games, but they also have two Quad 2 and one Quad 3 loss dragging their resume in the other direction.
After a 12-3 start, the Huskies are 5-4 in their last nine games, but there is still time for Dan Hurley to get this group ready for another deep March Madness run.
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