NHL Free Agents 2015: The All-Risk Team

In less than a week, NHL teams will be backing armored cars full of cash onto the front lawns of unrestricted free agents, dumping dollars into the laps of players they hope make a difference next season and beyond.

Since this is free agency, there will be just as many poor decisions, if not more, than there will be smart ones.

There are a few UFAs who are obvious risks, more than the others, and this will be our attempt at warning GMs about these poor gambles. There are red flags on just about any player in his late 20s or early 30s but this group has far more than any other players on the market.

Left Wing: Matt Beleskey

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There's no more obvious "buyer beware" situation this summer than Matt Beleskey.

After a 22-goal season, Beleskey and the Ducks were unable to come to terms on a new deal. "We made a really fair offer. God bless him," GM Bob Murray said in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

Beleskey won't need divine intervention to get a big contract this summer but he won't be the answer to any team's prayers, either.

In his previous three seasons, the 27-year-old had a total of 21 goals. There will be at least one team that ignores that and focuses on Beleskey's eight goals in 16 postseason games this spring. It's a virtual carbon copy of Bryan Bickell's 2013 season. Bickell had nine goals in 23 postseason games and was awarded a four-year, $16 million deal in the offseason, a contract the Blackhawks probably want to move this summer.

Beleskey is probably best suited as a bottom-six forward capable of a 10-goal season, but with 30 total goals last season someone is going to overpay and regret it.

Center: Mike Ribeiro

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Mike Ribeiro had the prototypical contract year in 2014-15.

After he was bought out by the Coyotes, the 35-year-old signed a one-year deal with the Predators. Ribeiro responded with his best season since 2010-11, posting 15 goals and 62 points with the Predators. 

Not only is there a concern that Ribeiro spent last season pushing for one more big contract this season, there's also the sexual assault civil case hanging over his head.

The details of the allegations that go back as far as 2007 can be read in detail at On The Forecheck. It's a civil suit, so Ribeiro is facing monetary damages and not prison time. The issue is players wanting Ribeiro as a teammate or around friends and family knowing these allegations.

The Predators have said they want to re-sign Ribeiro and were aware of this situation before signing him last summer. Other teams that weren't aware before now may not be as interested. It could create a divisive situation with a new team. 

Right Wing: Justin Williams

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Sometimes teams overpay based on playoff performances. It's possible someone will overpay for Justin Williams based on multiple playoff performances. 

Williams won the Conn Smythe Trophy two years ago along with his third Stanley Cup. In one postseason he went from "unappreciated possession darling" to "clutchiest clutcher to ever clutch in clutch situations." The soon-to-be 34-year-old is now a free agent and a team will want to add that type of player to its lineup and locker room.

But at what cost?

Williams' unblocked SAT percentage last season was 55.7 percent, a really good number without context. But when you consider it's his worst output in five seasons and it was only a plus-1.4 percent relative to his teammates, it's easy to make the case that anyone buying Williams is buying him on the downslope. 

Williams had 18 goals last season, but they came with a 10.3 shooting percentage, about two points higher than 2013-14, when he had 19 goals. 

It's very possible that Williams will sign a big deal and become a 10-15-goal player with middling possession numbers.

Defenseman: Marek Zidlicky

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Marek Zidlicky likely won't be an expensive option for whichever team signs him—figure he gets no more than $3 million for one season.

The 38-year-old has a great shot and the ability to pile up points on the power play. Six of his seven goals last season were scored on the power play and his 34 points are right around his average for the past five seasons.

Zidlicky, however, is a liability at even strength. He finished last season just below 50 percent in SAT percentage with the Devils and Red Wings, a fine number considering the Devils were below 47 percent as a team for the season. But at 38, Zidlicky's decision-making in the neutral zone, be it when to pinch, change or attempt a cross-ice pass, can be an issue because he doesn't have the foot speed to recover.

It's unfair to label Zidlicky a turnover machine but there's a lot of potential for a player of his age to go to pieces next season. 

Defenseman: Mike Green

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There was a time when Mike Green was a 31-goal scorer. That time was 2008-09, when the Capitals were a run-and-gun, dominant regular-season team that had its issues in the postseason.

Six years later, the 29-year-old Green isn't quite as prolific. He remains a terrific offensive player (10 goals, 45 points last season) and as a right-handed shot, teams will be throwing money at him starting July 1. Green was also an excellent possession player (52.4 percent) but those numbers may be deceptive.

Last summer, the Capitals added Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen. That led to a reduced role for Green, who was no longer operating as a top-pair defenseman at even strength. Green excelled against lesser competition, but whichever team signs Green will likely ask him to return to playing big minutes on a top pairing.

On the flip side, coach Barry Trotz used John Carlson on the first power-play unit a lot, which means Green could've had even more points if his offensive skill set was out there with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom more often.

Green may be the most expensive free-agent signing this summer. If his two-way game continues to flourish in a return to a bigger role, his new team will be happy. If not, he could be a detriment as a big cap hit.

Goaltender: Devan Dubnyk

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Devan Dubnyk is either one of the top free agents available or the top free agent on the market this summer. He was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy after posting a .929 save percentage last season (he was at .936 in 39 games with the Wild after arriving in a trade from the Coyotes).

The concern with Dubnyk is whether 2014-15 was a fluke. He had a .920 save percentage with the Oilers in 2013 but otherwise has a career mark of .914, which is about average for a goaltender. 

Every GM is trying to gauge if Dubnyk figured it out last year and is ready to be a consistent No. 1 goaltender or whether his season was just a blip while playing behind a really good possession team. The fact that Dubnyk was still very good on a horrendous Coyotes team says it's probably not a mirage but paying big money for the wildly (get it?) unpredictable goaltending possession is a gamble.

Dubnyk also dipped to .908 in 10 postseason games but that may have been a product of him playing 29 of 30 games down the stretch as opposed to him slipping on the big stage.

Dubnyk was a bargain last summer. He'll probably be a $5 million by the middle of next week.