Scouts' Breakdown: Who Is the 3rd-Best Prospect in the 2015 NHL Draft?

Unlike some recent drafts, there’s no room for discussion regarding the 2015 NHL draft’s top two prospects. Erie Otters superstar Connor McDavid and Boston University sniper Jack Eichel have separated themselves from the rest of the draft class.

While racking up 44 goals and 120 points in 47 games, McDavid showed the hockey world why he’s the best prospect the NHL has seen since Sidney Crosby. The blend of his uncanny vision, impeccable offensive skills and desire to win gives him the ability to carry a team on his back. It seems it is only a matter of time before he brings the Edmonton Oilers back to their glory days.

Eichel is slightly behind the Newmarket, Ontario, native but is a generational talent nonetheless. He is already touted as one of the best talents to ever come through the NCAA after netting 26 goals and 71 points in 40 contests as a freshman. His stats are a testament to how he’s well beyond his years on the ice, possessing the raw skill, speed and drive of a pro, not a student-athlete.

But outside of those two elite future superstars, who is the next-best prospect in the 2015 NHL draft?

Ultimately, there are three players in the running: Boston College defender Noah Hanifin, Otters center Dylan Strome and London Knights winger/center Mitchell Marner.

The 6’2”, 205-pound Hanifin is the consensus third-best prospect in the draft. Defensemen like him simply don’t come around that often, as he’s regarded as a dynamic two-way defender who has the ability to be the best player at both ends of the ice.  

Up front, it appears that Strome and Marner are neck-and-neck when it comes to pure offensive skill. But since the Otter has four inches on the Knight with a 6’3”, 185-pound stature, he seems to be slightly more enticing because it’s impossible to teach size.

In order to get more insight on who is the third-best prospect in the draft, we reached out to three scouts: Future Considerations owner and managing editor Aaron Vickers, former NHL scout and North American Central Scouting owner Mark Seidel and McKeen’s Hockey scout Brendan Ross.

Who ranks as No. 3 in your opinion?

As expected, the scouts had mixed opinions when asked point-blank who they believe is next in line behind McDavid and Eichel. Hanifin was the prospect of choice for Vickers and Seidel, while Ross was torn between Strome and Marner.

Here's the overall scouts' take on these other talented prospects: 

Vickers: Hanifin has an impressive package of skating, size and puck skills that NHL teams covet in a defensive prospect with the prospective upside to be a franchise cornerstone. His maturity will allow him to step directly into pro hockey next season, but it's his upside that makes Hanifin a promising prospect on the blue line and the consolation prize behind McDavid and Eichel.

Seidel: I think that Noah Hanifin is the third-best prospect in this year’s draft. He has a unique skill set in that he is an elite skater that has great offensive instincts and has shown all year that he can ably defend against men. He can use his feet to get himself into good spots in the defensive end and his gap is very good. But then he can quickly use that foot speed to join the rush to create odd-man rushes when it is needed. His game has matured to the point that he doesn't force things, and it will continue to mature as he gets older and stronger.

Ross: The biggest internal battle I’ve had with respect to ranking players after McDavid and Eichel has been deciphering between Dylan Strome and Mitch Marner, who went head-to-head offensively in the OHL right to the wire.

Marner’s trajectory over the past three seasons has been outstanding as he physically matured and developed into the London Knights’ top skater. His ability to impact that game every time he takes the ice is invaluable, and he’s added a great defensive presence to an already dominating offensive game.

As much as I like Marner’s dynamic two-way game, Dylan Strome edges him out slightly. Big-bodied, skilled centermen are nearly impossible to acquire outside of the draft, which adds value to selecting Strome. The OHL’s leading scorer has a quiet effectiveness about his game (similar to Joe Thornton) and as his skating continues to develop, confidence grows and he learns to better use his size, he will soon find another level of excellence to tap into.

How far is the talent gap between McDavid and Eichel and No. 3?

As noted earlier, it goes without saying that there is a drop in talent after McDavid and Eichel, and as such they are considered generational players. That said, there is room for debate regarding how far the drop is between the phenoms and the third-best prospect. 

Here's what the scouts have to say on this topic:

Vickers: Hanifin definitely projects as the top defenseman in the draft class, but that said, there is a drop between his upside and that of McDavid and Eichel. All signs point to McDavid developing into the generational talent he's been touted as since earning exceptional status into the OHL. Eichel's level, while not quite at McDavid's, would make him a candidate for first overall in any other class. Hanifin, while being the draft's elite blueliner, is a tier below.

Seidel: Those two are some of the best that we have seen in the draft in a very long time so there is a gap that exists but in my mind, [Hanifin] is clearly the next-best prospect. They are both franchise centermen that will define their teams for the next decade, but Hanifin can come in and become a No. 1 defenseman in a couple years. There is a fairly big difference between Hanifin and those two, but that speaks more to McDavid and Eichel's greatness than it does to any significant weaknesses in Noah's game.

Ross: In my opinion, McDavid and Eichel will eventually rise to a Crosby-esque/Ovechkin-esque level in terms of star status. Mitch Marner has the potential to become a Patrick Kane-level of player. There's a similarity about how Marner controls the pace of the game. In saying that, Kane has developed into one of the best all-time playoff performers and that will take a lot to achieve for Marner. 

With Dylan Strome, he's got the chance to develop into a Joe Thornton-esque level of player—a front-line, intelligent centre. Player comparisons aren't the easiest projections to make and each of these young talents will carve out their own niches, but those are the "levels" that I could foresee.

What are the realistic ceilings for the third-best prospect?

Continuing on from where Ross left off, we asked the scouts what the long-term projections are for their third-best prospect. Moreover, how high of a ceiling their prospect has in terms of NHL potential.

LM Otero/Associated Press

Vickers: Our scouts project Hanifin to develop into a cornerstone, top-pairing two-way defenseman. He'll be a player that his coach is able to use in any and all situations. His fluid skating, strong passing game and confidence with the puck give him some intriguing upside offensively, while his rock-solid positioning, ability to make correct reads and an active stick should translate well defensively.

Hanifin's game, when rounded out, should translate to one similar to that of Alex Pietrangelo. The skating, reads and maturity all reflect similarly to the Blues defenseman, while the use of positioning and an active stick instead of being overtly physical reflect other characteristics the pair share.

Seidel: His long-term projection is a franchise defenseman that will be an offensive catalyst and quarterback the power play. His defensive game will still need to continue to evolve, and I'd like to see him be more physical, but he has all of the tools to become a 25-minute-a-night defenseman.

The way he moves on the ice and has the potential to dominate a game reminds me of a young Scott Niedermayer. That is obviously a very lofty comparison, but he has all of the traits that made Niedermayer great. Some have compared him to Jay Bouwmeester due to his ability to skate, but I think he is more assertive in his game and will ultimately create more offense than Jay has been able to produce.

Ross: Marner has the chance to be a special star player. He's not only gifted playing with the puck but also shows a drive to compete without the puck as well. Offensively, the young London Knights star has the potential to crack the 35-goal and 90-point plateaus in his prime. The more realistic projection is quite a few years in the 70- to 80-point territory. 

Compared to Marner, I don't feel that Dylan Strome has quite the star upside as his draft peer. I could envision a lot of years in the same territory (70-80 points) and eclipsing 80 points a couple times in his career. Remember, we witnessed only a handful of players achieve the 80-point plateau in 2014-15 and only seven players did it in 2013-14, with Crosby's 104 points being the only player over 90 points that season. It's becoming very difficult to reach these milestones.”

Unless otherwise noted, quotes were obtained firsthand by the writer.