Breaking Down the NHL's 2014-15 Norris Trophy Candidates

Each year the NHL awards the James Norris Trophy to the league's best defenseman, and this year Drew Doughty of the Los Angeles Kings, Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators and P.K. Subban of the Montreal Canadiens are the finalists.

Both Karlsson and Subban have a Norris Trophy, and Doughty is looking to take home the award for the first time this season. Each defender brings something special to his team each and every night, but who should ultimately win the prestigious award?

There are a number of arguments to be made, and here's a breakdown of the 2014-15 Norris Trophy candidates.

Snapshot of Each Candidate

Drew Doughty

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The Los Angeles Kings' No. 1 defender had a solid season, finishing with a Corsi percentage of 56.48. He only trailed teammate Brayden McNabb (57.04) and defense partner Jake Muzzin (58.14) in the category as a whole. He also tallied 46 points on the season, and with 21 primary assists he finished in a tie with Mike Green and P.K. Subban for seventh-most among defenders.

Erik Karlsson

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The Senators' captain had one of his better seasons in recent memory and was instrumental to the success of his team. Karlsson appeared in every game, and with 1.77 points per 60 minutes he ranked seventh among defenders. In addition to leading the league in scoring with 66 points, Karlsson averaged 3.6 shots per game, which was tops for all defenders.

P.K. Subban

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The Montreal Canadiens' top rearguard had a good season, and his 60 points placed him in a tie with Brent Burns of the San Jose Sharks for second-most among defenders. Subban was a workhorse who played in multiple situations, and he finished fourth overall among defenders in total ice time, with only Karlsson, Ryan Suter and Doughty logging more overall minutes.

Who Should Win: Erik Karlsson

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Before you flip your desk in rage or skip down to the comments section to say, "Karlsson is really a fourth forward who doesn't play defense, or just because he led the league in scoring doesn't mean he should win the award," please consider the following.

While defending is the main job of a defenseman (thanks, Captain Obvious), defenders are also tasked with playing smart with the puck and helping their team generate chances for and limit chances against. You may not believe this, but of all the candidates, Karlsson was the best in terms of generating offense and preventing chances against.

Feast your eyes on Exhibit A, which highlights scoring chances for, scoring chances against and the percentage of scoring chances for and against. 

Player	SCF60	SCA60	DIFFERENTIAL	TEAM SCF%	TEAM SCF%OFF	TEAM DIFFERENTIAL
Doughty	27.60	23.55	4.05	53.96	52.27	1.69
Karlsson	28.98	24.56	4.42	54.13	48.98	5.15
Subban	27.01	27.68	(-0.67)	49.39	46.76	2.63

The key point to see here is that the Senators were drastically better when Karlsson was on the ice. When he was on the ice, they had the puck more and generated chances, and therefore opponents had fewer scoring chances. The logic here is that if you hold onto the puck and remain a threat, chances are an opponent will spend the majority of his time preventing instead of attacking.

On an individual note, Karlsson generated 28.98 scoring chances per 60 minutes, which was tops among the three defenders. He also allowed 24.56 per game (second-most), but his differential of 4.42 is the best of the group.

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This is a stark contrast to Subban, who allowed more chances than he generated and therefore is a negative in this respect.

While the above chart references scoring chances as a whole, you will have more of an appreciation for Karlsson by looking at Exhibit B. The below chart lists "high-quality" chances for and against, with the final column being the difference between them.

PLAYER	HSCF	HSCA	DIFFERENTIAL
Doughty	436	368	68
Karlsson	450	379	71
Subban	409	421	(-12)

You can see here that Karlsson again leads in chances for and is second for most chances allowed, but he takes home the prize for the differential of chances in a positive way. Subban, on the other hand, is in the red again with a negative differential of 12.

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These numbers should be enough to dispel the narrative that Karlsson is terrible defensively because when all is said and done, he helps his team more than he hurts it. He may take some unnecessary risks or go out of his way to try to score, but the numbers are clear.

It's worth noting that Karlsson accomplished a lot of this on his own, whereas Doughty played with a solid partner in Jake Muzzin. That should help Karlsson's chances, because Muzzin could have been a Norris candidate if he had finished with more points.

The difference between Karlsson and Doughty is slim, but Karlsson's solid analytics and total points give him a clear edge. There is also a chance his role in the Senators' run to the playoffs earned him some popularity points and votes, whereas the Kings' failure to make the playoffs could end up hurting Doughty indirectly.

Karlsson has always had a reputation of being a quality offensive player, and at times he's been unfairly criticized for his defensive play. His play this season should silence a lot of his critics, and there's no reason he shouldn't take home his second Norris Trophy.

Stats via Hockey-Reference.com, War-On-Ice.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com unless otherwise indicated.