Dark-Horse Fits for Lottery Teams in the 2015 NHL Draft

If past NHL entry drafts have taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected on the draft floor. Whether it’s picking a prospect who is projected to go much later in the draft or ignoring a positional need, at least one or two teams make a surprise move every year.

Bold moves for dark-horse picks don’t always pay off, but sometimes they do in a big way. In 2011, for example, the Winnipeg Jets went against the grain by selecting former Barrie Colts center Mark Scheifele seventh overall.

NHL Central Scouting felt he was a mid-first-round prospect, ranking him 16th among North American skaters. He has since went on to develop into one of the top forwards of the 2011 draft class, racking up 49 points this past year in his second season with the Jets.

Since it’s inevitable that Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel will don the first two sweaters in the draft, we’ve skipped over the top two picks. Here’s a look at dark-horse fits for the remaining 12 clubs with lottery selections.

3. Arizona Coyotes: Mitchell Marner, W, London Knights (OHL)

With the third selection, the consensus is the Coyotes will either go with Boston College blueliner Noah Hanifin or Erie Otters center Dylan Strome. Hanifin offers size (6’2”, 205 lbs), a complete game and loads of skill on the defensive side of the puck while Strome offers size (6’3”, 185 lbs), elite vision and raw offensive abilities at the other end of the ice. These types of talents obviously don’t grow on trees.

Since Mitchell Marner is undersized with a 5’10”, 163-pound frame, it seems his lack of height puts him slightly behind Strome and Hanifin. But since his offensive abilities are just as good as any other prospect in this draft besides McDavid, he’s in the running to go third overall.

Moreover, the Coyotes should be quite familiar with the 18-year-old winger, who notched 44 goals and 126 points in 63 games this past year as he played alongside their top 2013 draft pick, Max Domi, in London.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs: Ivan Provorov, D, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

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The Leafs are expected to go with either Marner, Strome or Hanifin. In addition, since nearly every scouting service pegs Hanifin as the third-best prospect and top blueliner in the draft, the Norwood, Massachusetts, native should be a no-brainer if the club looks for help on the back end.

There is, however, the odd voice, including TSN’s Craig Button, who gives Ivan Provorov the edge over Hanifin. It’s a bold opinion in a sense, but not overly when considering what the Russia product accomplished in his WHL rookie season. While using his elite skating abilities, top-notch shot and creative offensive mindset, he led all rookies in points with 15 goals and 61 points in 60 contests.

5. Carolina Hurricanes: Lawson Crouse, W, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

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At No. 5, the consensus is the Hurricanes will take whoever is left of Strome, Marner or Hanifin. Lawson Crouse, a 6’4”, 216-pound power forward, could trump one of the three, though. International Scouting Services certainly believes so, as the organization ranks him fourth overall in the draft.

Crouse is the type of player whom every team wants on its side because he’s extremely hard to play against. He has a tenacious style of the play that entails heavy hits, big fights, hard shots and top-end skill. His game has elicited comparisons to Philadelphia Flyers veteran Wayne Simmonds.

6. New Jersey Devils: Kyle Connor, W/C, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)

For the most part, Kyle Connor is projected to go somewhere in the 11-15 range. There’s an outside chance, however, that he could hurdle some of his peers into the top 10. TSN’s Craig Button believes there’s a good shot, as he projected him seventh overall in his final ranking.

The University of Michigan commit is without a doubt the top USHL talent in the draft. The dynamic two-way forward, who possesses top-speed speed and elite offensive abilities, was named the Player of the Year and Forward of the Year this past season in the USHL following netting 34 markers and 80 points 56 matches.

7. Philadelphia Flyers: Zachary Werenski, D, Michigan University (NCAA)

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The Flyers are expected to look for help up front in the first round after investing their last two top 30 picks on rearguards (Travis Sanheim in 2014 and Samuel Morin in 2013). Moreover, Philadelphia only drafted two forwards (Nicolas Aube-Kubel in 2014 and Tyrell Goulbourne in 2013) with top-100 picks in the past two drafts.

Nonetheless, Zachary Werenski might be too enticing for the Flyers to pass over because of the appealing combination of his 6’2”, 207-pound build and raw offensive abilities. He made a seamlessly smooth transition to college hockey a year early, racking up nine goals and 25 points in 35 games while maintaining a plus-nine ratio.

8. Columbus Blue Jackets: Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SM-Liiga)

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After investing four of their last five top picks into forwards, it seems the Blue Jackets are poised to look for defensive help this year. But with the possibility of two or even three of the draft’s top defensemen being off the board by the eighth pick, it could make a lot of sense for Columbus’ hockey brass to go with the top forward available.

Mikko Rantanen, Central Scouting's top-ranked European skater, has built a strong case to suggest he’s one of the top scorers pegged to don a sweater in the No. 6 to 10 range. Albeit he’s known for his playmaking abilities, he showed off his sniper skills at this past World Junior Championship, lighting the lamp four times in in five games for Finland.

9. San Jose Sharks: Nick Merkley, W, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

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It would be one bold move to select Merkley, who ISS ranks 19th overall, with a top-10 pick, but it could pay off big time if he keeps developing at the rate he has in his two seasons with the Rockets. He not only produced 20 goals and 90 points in 72 games this year, but he also put on one of the better performances at the 2015 Memorial Cup.

The biggest knock on the Calgary, Alberta, native is his smaller 5’10”, 192-pound frame. He is without question undersized, but he plays a big man’s game. He will battle anyone on the ice for the puck and isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty in the tough areas of the ice. This was evident at the Memorial Cup when he went at it with 6’6”, 225-pound Michael McCarron of the Oshawa Generals.

10. Colorado Avalanche: Pavel Zacha, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

Led by the likes of Matt Duchene (24 years old), Nathan MacKinnon (19) and Gabriel Landeskog (22), the Avalanche have their fair share of young, talented forwards. Their biggest concern is on the back end with Tyson Barrie and Erik Johnson not having much of a supporting cast.

That said, if the top three defenders in the draft, Hanifin, Provorov and Werenski, are off the board, it would make more sense for them to go with the best prospect available rather than forcing a blue-line selection.

Pavel Zacha, who scored 16 goals and 34 points in 37 matches with the Sting, would undoubtedly be a fine option for Colorado, as the budding power forward is a dynamic center who possesses an enticing blend of speed, skill, size (6’3”, 212 lbs) and strength.

11. Florida Panthers: Thomas Chabot, D, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

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Having selected Aaron Ekblad first overall last year—plus having other young defenders like Dmitry Kulikov and Erik Gudbranson in their system—the Panthers seem to be more likely to look for offensive help in the draft, especially if Hanifin, Provorov and Werenski don’t drop.

In saying that, though, a future top defensive pairing of Ekblad and Chabot should entice Florida’s hockey brass enough for it to give the Sea Dog a hard look. The 6’2”, 181-pounder is a smart two-way defender who possesses excellent mobility and superb puck skills. In addition, he has the endurance to eat up big minutes on a nightly basis.

12. Dallas Stars: Jansen Harkins, C, Prince George Cougars (WHL)

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At the No. 12 pick, Jansen Harkins, whom Future Considerations and ISS rank 25th overall, simply wouldn’t be the most talented forward available.

But what he may lack in skill, he makes up for with character and hard work. He’s the type of selfless player who battles hard in all three zones while possessing the offensive abilities to make his mark at the far end of the ice. These valuable attributes could entice the Stars or any team in the 11-20 range to take a chance on him.

On top of all of that, deep hockey bloodlines run through the North Vancouver, British Columbia, native’s veins. His father, Todd Harkins, and uncle, Brett Harkins, both played in The Show. Furthermore, his younger brother, Jonas Harkins, was drafted 29th overall by the Cougars in the 2015 WHL bantam draft.

13. Los Angeles Kings: Jakub Zboril, D, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Projected 22nd overall by ISS, 13th is a bit high for Jakub Zboril by at least some scout’s standards. But since bigger blueliners (6’1”, 185 lbs) who play with an edge (73 penalty minutes) and can produce offensively (13 goals and 33 points in 40 games) don’t grow on trees, the Czech Republic product might entice the Kings enough for them to invest their top selection on him.

NHL Director of Central Scouting Dan Marr spoke highly of Zboril’s two-way game, per NHL.com's Adam Kimelman:

"We think he's a solid two-way player," he said. "His game with the puck, without the puck, I don't know there's too many holes in his game. … He's a solid two-way guy that these are the type of guys you see playing in the [Stanley Cup] playoffs."

14. Boston Bruins: Paul Bittner, W, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

Ranked 26th overall by Central Scouting, Paul Bittner is one of the more enticing prospects in the latter half of the first round because of the combination of his 6’4”, 203-pound frame, edgy play, speed and relentless forecheck. Moreover, he posted quality numbers in his third season with the Winterhawks, netting 34 goals and 71 points in 66 games.

Despite his lower draft status, the Bruins might be willing to take a chance on the Crookston, Minnesota, native since they love big, tenacious forwards. He has the potential to develop into the next Milan Lucic, albeit he isn’t quite as fierce, if he can adapt his offensive skills to the pro game.