Blueprint for Kyle Busch to Make the 2015 Chase: Is It Still Possible?

Despite his 43rd-place finish in Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway, Kyle Busch still has 11 races to rally to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Granted, it won’t be easy—and Sunday’s showing didn’t help at all—but he can still do it.

Busch missed the first 11 races of the season recovering from a horrific crash in the Xfinity Series season opener in February in Daytona.

He’s returned and competed in the last four races of the Cup season, with finishes of 11th at Charlotte Motor Speedway, 36th at Dover International Speedway, a season-best ninth at Pocono Raceway and Sunday’s worst showing of the season: last of the 43-driver field.

To his credit, NASCAR is giving Busch a medical exemption to make the Chase provided he wins at least one race and finishes in the top 30 in the standings after the last regular-season race in early September at Richmond International Raceway.

There’s no question the younger Busch brother has the talent to make the Chase. But there are a lot of other variables that have to go his way.

First and foremost, with Sunday’s poor showing, he has to finish at least 15th or better in the remaining 11 races to make the Chase.

That might seem like a hard task given Busch remains in 39th place in the standings, 173 points behind 30th-ranked Justin Allgaier.

In layman’s terms, 173 points is equal to four wins (a minimum of 43 points for each triumph).

That’s a mighty tall order.

But if Busch can start pulling together some top fives and more top 10s, he potentially could still sneak into the Chase—but having at least one win is the make-or-break element of the deal.

There are also several questions that will need to be answered:

Does he have the car? After just two wins in 2014, Joe Gibbs Racing has enjoyed somewhat of a resurgence this season. With the exception of Busch, each driver in the JGR camp (Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth) has won at least one race thus far in 2015.

Does he have the team? Even though he has a new crew chief this season in Adam Stevens, Busch has a team around him that is as hungry as he is for a win—or more. Don’t forget, it had to compete in 11 races without its regular driver (either Matt Crafton, David Ragan or Erik Jones). Busch has one of the best teams in the series. It can get the job done.

Is it too late for him because of the schedule? This is the biggest question of all. With just 11 races remaining until the Chase begins, the pressure will continue to increase markedly with each passing race he fails to win or doesn’t start climbing upward in the Cup rankings. As Nick Bromberg of Yahoo Sports wrote:

"

With 11 races to go before the Chase, Busch has to make up approximately 16 points per race on Justin Allgaier, the driver in 30th. Allgaier is averaging a 27th-place finish in 2015, which means that, without bonus points, Busch has to now finish 11th or higher to surpass Allgaier at their current points paces. Is it impossible? No. But it's highly improbable. Busch's hopes of making the top 30 are currently hanging on by a thread. If he has another day like Sunday, they're probably extinct.

"

How many races must he win? This is kind of a trick question of sorts. There’s no question that Busch has to win as many races as he possibly can. But as long as he wins just one, he’s halfway home to qualifying for the Chase—most likely. Then all he has to do is focus on getting into the top 30 before Richmond.

But here’s the rub: For the most part, the more races he’s won in a season, the lower he’s finished in the Chase. Granted, that was before NASCAR implemented the new format last season (won one race, finished 10th). But for argument’s sake, he won eight races in 2008 and finished 10th. He won four each in 2009 (finished 13th) and 2011 (finished 12th). It was only in 2013, when he won four races, that he finished a career-high fourth in the final standings.

Which upcoming tracks does he have the best chance of a win or top-five/-10 success? In 369 career Sprint Cup starts, Busch has won 29 races. That’s the good news. The bad news is the next 11 tracks include several that he’s not done very well at or marginally at best.

He’s won just once at Sonoma Raceway, in Loudon at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, at Kentucky Speedway, Darlington Raceway, Michigan International Speedway and Daytona International Speedway; twice at Watkins Glen International; four times at Richmond; and five times at Bristol Motor Speedway. 

But he’s also failed to win at two tracks that could be pivotal for him: Pocono and Indianapolis Motor Speedway. If he can win at Bristol, great. But the last thing he wants to do is wait until Richmond to win—because it might wind up being too little and too late of an effort.

And that’s the worst feeling someone can have, going through the countless hours of rehab, the optimism and confident attitude, and all the hard work and effort—only to see it go all for naught.

That’s the last thing KyBu wants, and you can be sure that until he can’t win or earn enough points to make the Chase, he’ll keep battling every step of the way.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.