Breaking Down the NHL's 2014-15 Selke Trophy Candidates

The Selke Trophy is given out each season to the NHL forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.

This year, Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins, Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings and Jonathan Toews of the Chicago Blackhawks were named finalists, and it was another year in which wingers were "excluded" from the process.

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The Selke Trophy has a bias for centers. The last time a winger took home the trophy was in 2003, when Jere Lehtinen won the award for the third time.

Bergeron and Toews have alternated the award over the last three seasons, and there are a number of reasons why each could take home the trophy this season.

Kopitar also has a strong case, and it will be interesting to see if the Professional Hockey Writers Association underrates him for another year. He has been passed over in the past, and it could be a situation in which playing on talented team hurts his individual efforts.

There are a number of reasons why each player could win. With that in mind, here is a look at the 2014-15 Selke Trophy candidates.

Snapshot of Each Candidate

Patrice Bergeron

The Bruins' top pivot was the NHL's top faceoff man this season, taking a league-leading 1,951 faceoffs while winning 60.2 percent of them. In terms of advanced stats, Bergeron led the Bruins with a Corsi percentage of 58.0 and a relative Corsi percentage of plus-9.6.

What was even more impressive for Bergeron is that only 28.6 percent of his draws came in the offensive zone, yet he found a way to lead the team in scoring.

Anze Kopitar

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The Los Angeles Kings' first-line center played an integral role for his team, despite the fact that the defending Stanley Cup champions missed the playoffs.

Kopitar was the league's top puck-possession forward, as the Kings tallied 363 more shot attempts than the opposition while he was on the ice during five-on-five play. Kopitar also tallied 64 points and maintained a respectable faceoff percentage of 52.6.

Jonathan Toews

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Captain Serious is one win away from his third Stanley Cup win, and he is looking to capture his second Selke Trophy. The skilled two-way center led his team's forwards in Corsi percentage at 55.9, and he finished with 66 points in 81 games.

Toews did a lot of things well for the Blackhawks during the 2014-15 campaign and spent the most time on the ice among forwards. He also won 56.5 percent of all faceoffs and the fourth-most in the entire NHL with 947.

Who Should Win: Patrice Bergeron

The Bruins didn't make the playoffs for a number of reasons this season, but Bergeron was one of the biggest bright spots. He was also one of the best defensive players in the NHL, living up to the definition of the award.

While the Selke Trophy is an award that many feel should be given to the best two-way forward in the league, it is for the best defensive forward.

Toews and Kopitar may have been very solid defensive forwards who also contributed offensively, but Bergeron was the top defensive forward in the entire NHL.

Bergeron hit a number of benchmarks that should give him enough support to win the award, so here are the big ones to consider.

Among the finalists, Bergeron was the best in terms of limiting scoring chances, and he also generated the most in five-on-five situations. What is or isn't a scoring chance may be subjective, but for the purposes of this article, the standard agreed upon by war-on-ice.com is used.

In simple terms, not all shots are equal. There is a home-plate area around the net in the scoring zone, and there are different types of chances that are fully outlined here.

Player	Chances Generated	Chances Allowed
Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins	32.76	21.76
Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings	29.55	22.53
Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks	31.23	25.98

To keep things simple, we will use chances per 60 minutes, and Bergeron allowed the fewest with only 21.76 against. Kopitar was No. 2 with 22.53 and Toews was No. 3 with 25.98. Bergeron also had the most scoring chances for in this situation.

What makes this interesting is that Bergeron was cast in the defensive zone the most among the three candidates. His deployment should have led to more chances against by virtue of spending more time on average in his zone and far fewer scoring chances produced as a whole.

For context, here's a look at the three players' zone starts:

Player	Defensive Zone	Neutral Zone	Offensive Zone	Points
Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins	38.2%	33.2%	28.6%	55
Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings	29.6%	37.4%	33.0%	64
Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks	26.7%	38.0%	35.3%	66

As you can see, Bergeron logged heavy time in the defensive zone but still found a way to limit offensive chances against while contributing for the Bruins. While Toews and Kopitar outproduced Bergeron offensively, the Bruins' pivot should be lauded for what he was able to accomplish.

Kopitar did edge Bergeron in overall Corsi percentage, but the Kings as a whole were a much better puck-possession team than Boston.

However, if you account for score effects, Bergeron trumps both Kopitar and Toews. In close-game situations, he also topped the other two candidates in terms of relative Corsi percentage.

There are a number of different queries that can be run, and virtually all of them favor Bergeron. The Bruins' alternate captain was phenomenal is just about every area of play this season, and it would be interesting to see what his numbers would be like on a team with significant depth.

He should be a lock to earn his second consecutive Selke, but anything could have happened during the voting process.

Stats via Hockey-Reference.com, war-on-ice.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com unless otherwise indicated.