Andre Ward vs. Paul Smith: Preview and Prediction for Upcoming Bout
After 19 long months away from the ring, Andre Ward finally returns to action this weekend in his native city of Oakland. Among the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, conflicts with his promoters and a lack of truly worthwhile opponents have caused him to be extremely inactive in recent years.
In his absence, new stars have emerged. Still, Ward's return is anticipated by serious fans of skilled, technical boxing.
Englishman Paul Smith is not a level of opponent who could have hoped to share the ring with Ward a couple of years ago. But after his long layoff, Ward is apparently opting for a second-tier contender in his return bout.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Andre Ward | Paul Smith |
| Record: | 27-0, 14 KOs | 35-5, 20 KOs |
| Height: | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Reach: | 71" | 72" |
| Weight: | 172 lbs | 172 lbs |
| Age: | 31 | 32 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Oakland, California | Liverpool, England |
| Rounds: | 185 | 203 |
These two are super middleweights, but the fight is being held at a catchweight of 172 pounds, just three pounds shy of the light heavyweight limit of 175.
Ward is an inch taller, but Smith has a one-inch advantage in reach. Still, Ward's control of range should make that inch negligible.
Main Storylines
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Andre Ward is one of the most talented boxers on the planet. He was an Olympic gold medalist in 2004 and hasn't lost a boxing match of any kind since grade school.
Between 2009 and 2011, Ward emerged as a top star when he cruised through the Showtime Super Six tournament, thoroughly cleaning out the super middleweight division. In September 2012, he brutalized light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson, beating him by a Round 10 TKO.
But since beating Dawson, he has fought just once, beating Edwin Rodriguez by unanimous decision in November 2013. A protracted legal battle with his former promoter, Goossen Promotions, kept him in the courtroom and out of the ring, but last January he was able to reach a deal to finally sever relations with them and sign with rap superstar Jay-Z's Roc Nation.
Hopefully, that means he'll be returning to regular competition. At 31, he's now passed by what could have been prime years for him.
The scene at super middleweight is more interesting now than it has been in years. James DeGale's outstanding victory over Ward's teammate on the 2004 Olympic team, Andre Dirrell, last May served notice to the sport.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. was hammered by Andrzej Fonfara when he attempted to move up to light heavyweight. I don't really think Chavez deserves a high-profile fight again at this point, but his name recognition still might make him an attractive opponent for Ward at 168 pounds.
Of course, the big name Ward has been calling out this year is undefeated middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. So far, GGG has declined to move up. But Ward-Golovkin would probably be a pay-per-view event if it was built up properly.
Meanwhile, Ward is returning to action against a good, if limited, opponent in Paul Smith. Smith is coming off back-to-back losses against WBO super middleweight champion Arthur Abraham, who lost to Ward in the Super Six tournament.
Still, Smith fought well enough in his first loss to Abraham to earn a rematch. He should be completely outclassed by Ward, but if the undefeated former champion is rusty from his long layoff, Smith might have enough talent and punching power to give him trouble.
Strengths
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Andre Ward is an extremely smart, technically skilled fighter. He is athletic and strong and uses all of his physical tools. He controls range and tempo, avoids getting hit and punches with accuracy.
He's one of the elite talents in the sport.
Paul Smith is a rugged super middleweight with world-class experience. He doubles up well with his jab and has pop in his right hand.
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Weaknesses
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Andre Ward has fought just once since September 2012 and not at all since November 2013. I know he has stayed active in the gym, but gym rounds are a different story than fight rounds.
Until he has taken care of business against Paul Smith, it will be impossible not to wonder how much rust he has.
Paul Smith leaves a lot of holes in his defense. He has a habit of dropping his right hand while he jabs, leaving a huge opening. His footwork is below average.
Andre Ward Will Win If...
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Andre Ward will win this fight with ease, so long as he is anything like the version of himself we last saw in the ring in November 2013. He should be able to control the range and tempo of the fight in order to get off with his own punches and then move out of range to prevent Paul Smith from landing in return.
Ward should use movement to draw Smith forward and then look to counter over the top of the Brit's jab. He should be able to land heavy power punches down the middle on Smith.
Ward needs to remain patient in the early rounds and then turn up the pressure in the middle of the fight as he gets his feet under him after such a long layoff. Realistically, there's no reason Ward should lose this fight.
Paul Smith Will Win If...
6 of 7Paul Smith is thoroughly overmatched in terms of talent in this fight. So his best chance to win is to get aggressive and ugly early, hoping to catch Andre Ward before he is comfortable and take advantage of the American fighter's ring rust after his 19-month layoff.
Smith needs to double up his jab and move forward, working at a brisk pace. He's got to try to bully Ward in the clinch, which is no easy task, as Ward is skilled at maneuvering inside.
Smith should be particularly aggressive about letting his straight right hand go. This is a fight he has little chance of winning, so he should roll the dice and take the fight to Ward. If he's going to lose, he should at least do it by taking the fight to the more talented fighter.
Prediction
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Even though he has been out of action for 19 months, if Andre Ward loses this fight to Paul Smith, it will be the biggest upset of recent years. Smith fought well in his first fight with Arthur Abraham last year, but in the rematch last February, he was bullied and beaten thoroughly.
Abraham is a strong, experienced champion, but he's also past his prime. And when he was much closer to his prime in 2011, Ward beat him with ease.
Ward should be able to win this fight by stoppage, but that's not what I'm predicting. I think he'll fight a careful, methodical fight and stack up rounds, winning by a near shutout.
Ward is among the most talented boxers on the planet, so it's exciting to see him back in action. I think it's inevitable that he'll fight Gennady Golovkin in a superfight, but in the meantime, I think he should keep building interest in the fight by beating another belt-holder at super middleweight, like James DeGale.
And Ward shouldn't rule out a move to light heavyweight. A fight between he and Sergey Kovalev might be even bigger than one between he and Golovkin.
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