Breaking Down the NHL's 2015 Calder Trophy Candidates

Aaron Ekblad of the Florida Panthers, Johnny Gaudreau of the Calgary Flames and Mark Stone of the Ottawa Senators are the three finalists for the Calder Trophy that is awarded to the NHL's top rookie, reported by the league's official site, and there's been a lot of debate over who should win the award.

Initially, there was some outrage about the oversight of Filip Forsberg of the Nashville Predators, but a playoff hat trick helped defuse the situation to a degree. There are certainly cases to be made for each youngster, but who should walk away with the trophy?

Snapshot of Each Candidate

Aaron Ekblad

The Panthers rearguard appeared in 81 games and finished with 39 points. His rookie year was no cakewalk, and the 2014 No. 1 overall draft pick averaged 21:49 a game.

What was impressive about Ekblad's season was his ability to generate offense at even strength, and 26 of his 39 points came in even-strength situations. He also had a Corsi percentage of 53.9 on a team with a collective total was 50.7.

War-on-Ice's glossary defines Corsi percentage as "the number of on-ice shot attempts (on goal, missed, or blocked) taken by the player's team." This is notable because Ekblad was able to drive possession and offense despite his team being middle of the road.

Mark Stone

The Senators made an impressive run that resulted in their making the playoffs despite having a spotty start to the season. Stone led the team offensively with 26 goals and 64 points, and the dynamic winger averaged 17:01 a game. His surge in the second half was impressive, and from January 1 to the end of the season, he tallied 47 points.

In addition, Stone ranked No. 21 in the league in points per 60 minutes—his 2.82 points in that time ranked ahead of Nicklas Backstrom, Steven Stamkos and Corey Perry, among others.

Johnny Gaudreau

Johnny Hockey was a top NCAA prospect who made a full-time jump to the NHL in 2014-15. His performance was impressive as a rookie—even more so when you consider he only has a frame of 5'9" and 150 pounds.

The undersized winger became a household name after his showing at the NHL All-Star Game, and he was one of the league's most entertaining rookies. He finished with 64 points in 80 regular-season games and nine points in 11 playoff games.

Who Should Win: Aaron Ekblad

There are a number of reasons why Ekblad should win the trophy, and the biggest reasons are his age and position, with his relative worth to his team as a close second.

According to Quant Hockey, only two defensemen have entered the league at the age of 18 and finished with better offensive numbers than Ekblad, and both did it at a time when the league was weaker and harder to shut down individual players.

During Phil Housley's 66-point season in 1982-83, there were only 21 teams in the league and 80 games were played. During Bobby Orr's 41-point campaign in 1966-67, there were only 70 games played and six teams in the league.

That is not to discredit two amazing NHL defenders, but it gives you a great appreciation of what Ekblad accomplished in a league with tremendous talent and physicality.

Thomas Nycz/Getty Images

Ekblad played in 81 of 82 games in a 30-team league, was one of the best players on his team and did it as one of the youngest players in the NHL. He was also one of the league's better players from an analytical perspective, and this chart from war-on-Ice measures what he accomplished in comparison to the average NHL player.

War-on-Ice

If you load up the filters to measure Ekblad's 2014-15 with the average, it gives you the above results.

His numbers are outstanding, especially when you consider the age difference between Ekblad and the average NHL player.

If you want to take things a step forward, war-On-Ice also shows that Ekblad's 2014-15 season is comparable to some other top defenders across the categories. This is useful because it lets you see what other players achieved similar results while still being relatively young and inexperienced.

Similarity %	Player	Season	Age	G/60	P/60	TOI% QOC
100.00%	Aaron Ekblad	14-15	18	0.26	0.95	17.25
96.42%	Drew Doughty	10-11	20	0.26	0.97	18.01
95.16%	Ryan Suter	07-08	22	0.28	0.95	17.45
94.19%	Dougie Hamilton	13-14	20	0.30	1.01	17.67

All of these numbers are great, and they bring up a point that isn't often mentioned when comparing players of multiple eras. Ekblad had to overcome something Housley and Orr didn't have to deal with: the scrutiny of technology. In 2015, technology makes it is very easy to pick apart a player's game and exploit weaknesses.

There are a ton of stat sites, and there's access to enough footage to pinpoint particular weaknesses. Each team likely watched a significant amount of Ekblad's tape and looked for ways to beat him.

Rick Nash of the New York Rangers made him look quite foolish at a time when the Panthers were on a power play, but Nash's two-way ability made him especially lethal in shorthanded situations.

The burden of technology was something that also impacted Gaudreau and Stone, but they had the luxury of having linemates and teammates who could pick up the slack when they had an off night.

Forwards have an easier time breaking into the league because they can be placed with linemates who will cover for their mistakes. Coaches also have more places to put them, whereas defenders are limited. In addition to this, both Gaudreau and Stone drew attention for some offensive hot streaks at the right time, and both helped their respective teams make the playoffs.

Stone tallied 38 points in the 36 games after the break, and Gaudreau notched 29 points in his final 34 games. They both came through at the right time, but some of it can be attributed to being supported by lineups full of depth and talent.

It is clear that having some depth was helpful. Here is a list of the top scorers for the Flames and Senators and where Gaudreau and Stone ranked respectively.

Player	G	A	PTS
Player	G	A	PTS
Jiri Hudler	31	45	76
Johnny Gaudreau	24	40	64
Sean Monahan	31	31	62
Dennis Wideman	15	41	56
Mark Giordano	11	37	48
Erik Karlsson	21	45	66
Mark Stone	26	38	64
Kyle Turris	24	40	64
Bobby Ryan	18	36	54
Mike Hoffman	27	21	48

The list makes things interesting, even more so when you consider Mike Hoffman's 27 goals came during his rookie season, even though he is 25. That is something that could hurt Stone's case because voters often consider the impact of teammates and whether they inflate a candidate's numbers.

Circling back to Ekblad, as a No. 1 defender, it is clear he didn't have the luxury of being able to have an off night. That isn't to say that he was perfect the entire season, but it would be accurate to say that Ekblad's worth to the Panthers was higher than Gaudreau's to the Flames and Stone's to the Senators.

While each candidate had an amazing season, it is hard to not pick Ekblad for all that he accomplished and how he accomplished it. Ekblad played a tougher position, had less overall support and still found a way to hold his own and hit some impressive benchmarks.

In addition, both Stone and Gaudreau are older than Ekblad and play in easier positions. Ekblad had the task of facing off against the top line of opponents, whereas the two forwards saw second lines and second defense pairings based on their time on ice.

Not many players enter the league at 18, let alone play well enough to earn a trip to the All-Star game. Having a solid 6'4", 216-pound frame was something of which Ekblad took advantage, and his solid play at even strength suggests he could take a leap forward next season.

It is easy for players with his skills to pad totals in power-play situations, but that didn't happen in 2014-15 for Ekblad. Instead, he showed consistency when he spent significant time on the ice, and his success should be sustainable.

Having two similar forwards helps Ekblad's chances, as Stone and Gaudreau could split the vote, leaving room for a slim margin of victory. The Panthers defender has a bright future, and it would be shocking if he wasn't awarded the Calder Trophy in Las Vegas.

Stats via Hockey-Reference, Quant Hockey, War-on-Ice and Puckalytics unless otherwise indicated.