NBA Finals 2015: Prop Odds, Stat Projections for Warriors vs. Cavaliers Game 3
It wasn't pretty or conventional, but the Cleveland Cavaliers managed to get the NBA Finals back to Ohio tied at one game apiece against the Golden State Warriors.
With Kyrie Irving suffering a fractured kneecap, it appeared the Cavs' chances of winning Game 2 were dead on arrival. But Matthew Dellavedova had something to say about that.
Well, really a guy named LeBron James had a lot to say about that. His 39 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists were nothing short of incredible in carrying the Cavs. However, it was Dellavedova who got to the line and hit the go-ahead free throw with 10 seconds left in overtime.
It was also the tenacious Australian who was responsible for holding reigning MVP Stephen Curry in check. ESPN Stats & Info shed some light on just how well he did guarding the star guard:
Despite the injury to Irving, the series is shaping up to be a classic. With the first two games going into overtime and taking a toll on both teams physically and mentally, Game 3 will be the most pivotal contest yet. The latest odds from Odds Shark are indicative of just how close these two teams have played each other thus far.
| Golden State | 20-21 (-105) | +1 |
| Cleveland | 20-23 (-115) | -1 |
Prop Bets to Consider
Outside of the traditional moneyline and point spread, there are a few other odds to consider when looking at this game. Vegas Insider has a first-half spread and updated odds to win the whole series available in addition to Odds Shark's over/under for the game.
| Golden State | +.5 | 1-7 (-700) | 194.5 |
| Cleveland | -.5 | 5-1 (+500) |
The first-half line for the Cavs might be the most enticing pick of the bunch. The Cavaliers have taken a slim lead into halftime in each of the first two games and should conceivably receive a boost playing at home for the first time in this series.
Regardless of how the game concludes, a lead for the Cavs at halftime seems likely.
Despite the competitive nature of the game, Vegas still likes the Warriors to win the series by a comfortable margin. That could come down to the fact that right now, Golden State is the deeper team.
As Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders points out, James' minutes are definitely a storyline to watch:
The four-time MVP has already logged 96 minutes in this series. He's clearly on a mission to show he's the greatest player in the game. If he can keep up his torrid pace playing that many minutes, it'll truly be questionable whether he's even human.
Stat Projections
The great subplot of this series has been the matchup of Curry and James. The former is looking for his first title, and the latter is looking for his third title and first one for the hometown team.
The team race might be 1-1, but in terms of individual numbers, it's James 2, Curry 0. Some of that is attributed to the fact that James has to shoulder more of the load without Kevin Love and Irving on the court, but Curry put on one of his worst shooting performances of the season—regardless of workload—in Game 2.
The sharpshooter went 5-of-23 from the field, including an abysmal 2-of-15 from beyond the arc.
Some of that can be chalked up to Dellavedova. Some of it can be chalked up to a plain old bad shooting night. Curry spoke about a general lack of rhythm in the postgame press conference, per Joe Noga of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:
"Shots I normally make I knew as soon as they left my hand that they were off. That doesn't usually happen. I mean, mechanically I don't know if there is an explanation for it, just didn't have a rhythm and didn't find one the whole game. I'm not going to let one game kind of alter my confidence. I know as a team we're not going to let one team alter our belief that we're going to win the series. So nothing we can do about tonight. We've got to move on and be ready to play a good team that's ready to go home.
"
When a player who is shooting .447/.410/.832 for the postseason puts up a shooting performance like that one, some progression to the mean the next time out is to be expected.
In contrast to Curry, James put on one of his all-time best performances on Sunday night. It took him 35 shots from the field to do it, but that's what happens when your team shoots just 32 percent from the field.
That's good news for the Cavaliers, though. On a night where it appeared hope had been lost, they came out and shot poorly yet found a way to win. It's that kind of toughness they will need to rely on to continue to have a chance in this series.
However, they can't continue to force James to score that many every night. Look for him to become a facilitator as the Cavs' team shooting also progresses back to the mean in Game 3.
James' Projected Game 3 Stat Line: 32 points, 14 assists, eight rebounds
Curry's Projected Game 3 Stat Line: 28 points, six rebounds, six assists
Game 3 Prediction
If the Cavaliers come in and drop their first home game after an upset on the road, that's a lot of momentum squandered. That makes this game a must-win for the Cavaliers, as confidence is crucial for a team that is down to just one superstar.
So far, the Cavaliers' small group of rotational players has stepped up when it counted. However, players like J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert are high-variance contributors who have yet to put together impressive games.
With both teams coming off terrible shooting performances, the possibility of a rebound game for both offenses is apparent. The over might just be a good bet, as both teams now have two games of defensive film to make adjustments.
Cavs 103, Warriors 100
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