Championship Play-Off Final Preview: Which Club Will Reach the Premier League?

It’s known as the richest game in football, with the victor winning the right to pit themselves against the best that English football has to offer on a weekly basis. It’s also the culmination of a gruelling campaign that has so far consisted of 48 league games for both clubs.

Here, we’ll look at the six separate criteria—form and momentum (including previous Play-Offs), attack, defence, key players, managers and head-to-head record—that will play a crucial role in determining whether it is Norwich City or Middlesbrough that emerge from the Championship Play-Off Final as the final Premier League side for next season.

The criteria are unranked, with each playing a potentially decisive part in the outcome of the game. All stats used are from Statto unless stated otherwise.

Form and Momentum

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Norwich form (last 10 games of regular Championship season): Won six, drew three, lost one, 18 goals for, nine goals against, 21 points

Middlesbrough form (last 10 games of regular Championship season): Won six, drew one, lost three, 14 goals for, 11 goals against, 19 points

City and Boro have been largely inseparable across the last few weeks of the season, although there’s no doubt that the Teessiders will have been more than disappointed with the manner in which they finished the season, having been top as recently as the beginning of April. Their slide was encapsulated by their failed gamble to keep goalkeeper Dimitrios Konstantopoulos up front in the dying seconds against Fulham in order to try and grab a winner, and in the process losing the game, per BBC Sport.

In contrast, Norwich’s comfortable third-place finish was the culmination of a significant upturn in their form which coincided with the club replacing Neil Adams with Alex Neil when the club were down in seventh.

In terms of the Play-Offs so far, both teams can make the case for having more momentum going into the Final. Boro comprehensively swept aside Brentford 5-1 on aggregate, winning both legs, while Norwich drew away at fierce local rivals Ipswich Town before beating them 3-1 at Carrow Road. Boro will arguably be more well-rested and confident having won both legs, but the added bonus of beating their local rivals will no doubt have the Canaries in buoyant mood.

Both teams are relatively inexperienced in the Play-Offs, having each only appeared once before this season. Boro achieved promotion to the top flight in 1988 by overcoming Bristol Rovers over two legs and then beating First Division Chelsea. However, Norwich’s history in the format is considerably less happy; they bested Wolverhampton Wanderers in the semi-final, but lost to Birmingham City on penalties at Wembley in 2002.

Attack

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Norwich goals scored (regular Championship season): 88, third most in the Championship

Middlesbrough goals scored (regular Championship season): 68, ninth most in the Championship

There’s a clear gulf in goalscoring ability between the teams, with Norwich comprehensively outscoring their opponents, as well as averaging more shots, more shots on target and more successful dribbles than Boro, per WhoScored.

What’s more, Norwich can boast a more rounded contribution of goals from across their squad. They had 16 different scorers in the league and Play-Offs, while Boro had just 12. The Canaries also had four players break double figures, compared to three for the Teessiders.

Defence

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Norwich goals conceded (regular Championship season): 48, third best defence in the Championship

Middlesbrough goals conceded (regular Championship season): 37, best defence in the Championship

Just as Norwich hold a clear advantage in the attacking stakes, so too do Middlesbrough in defence. Daniel Ayala has been the fulcrum of the most miserly defence in the Championship this season. Although Norwich have allowed fewer shots per game on average, Boro have typically made four more tackles than the Canaries.

In terms of attack and defence, the game couldn’t be more finely poised. The result will rest on how both teams’ key players perform on the day.

Key Players

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Middlesbrough’s season may have been defined by the goalscoring exploits of on-loan Chelsea forward Patrick Bamford, but they’re far more than a one-man team. As their defensive record suggests, former Norwich player Daniel Ayala has been a rock at the heart of the back four, and has been ably assisted by another Chelsea loanee, Tomas Kalas. Boro also have proven stars, in the form of Jonathan Woodgate and Fernando Amorebieta, who won’t be intimidated by the occasion.

Captain Grant Leadbitter in the defensive midfield role has once again proven indispensable, and if he and partner Adam Clayton are at their harmonious best, Norwich will have serious issues getting anywhere close to the Boro goal.

Bradley Johnson, operating from a similarly defensive position in the midfield as Leadbitter, has been Norwich’s fulcrum this season, contributing 15 goals, while this campaign has finally seen Nathan Redmond truly begin to live up to his early promise. Thirteen assists have made him the joint-best creator in the league.

Up front, Norwich should be well equipped to cope with Boro’s imposing defence, with Cameron Jerome’s physical presence providing the perfect foil for the likes of Gary Hooper and Lewis Grabban. However, expect to see Jerome start by himself, as both teams tend to favour the solidity of a 4-2-3-1 system—another reason why individual performances will be so critical.

Managers

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Aitor Karanka took over an ailing Middlesbrough team that looked to be settling into a long, bleak stint in the Football League. Having enjoyed heady days under Steve McClaren, including reaching the 2006 UEFA Cup final, the club was relegated in 2009. Gareth Southgate, Gordon Strachan and Tony Mowbray all failed to trouble the top of the Championship table during their tenures, and Karanka faced a major task when he took over several games into last season.

Karanka has performed exceptionally well, utilising his previous history with Jose Mourinho to secure two fantastic loans, and moulding the players already at the club into a cohesive group. The one blot on his copybook for the season was the shambolic end to Boro’s game at Fulham, which fatally damaged the team’s push for automatic promotion and was out of character for a manager who has built his success on playing pragmatic, defensively fastidious football.

Unlike Karanka, Alex Neil is a newcomer to the Championship, having only arrived in January—however, his impact has been similarly profound. Had the season begun when Neil took the reins from Neil Adams, Norwich would have achieved automatic promotion at a canter, taking 49 points from a possible 66, conceding 19 (one better than Boro and the best in the league) and scoring 44 (an average of two a game and 14 more than Boro).

Even if Norwich do fall at the final hurdle, they’ll be confident in achieving automatic promotion next term under Neil—and this confidence may well translate to less nerves for the Final.

Head-to-Head Records

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While Norwich may feel they have more momentum, their head-to-head record against the Teessiders is enough to stop them in their tracks.

The clubs first met in November, in one of the games which played a part in Neil Adams eventually resigning as Norwich manager. Boro ran rampant, with Bamford scoring a brace in a 4-0 win that Adams described bluntly as the “worst performance I have seen. It's a heavy defeat and there are no positives," per BBC Sport.

A more likely barometer of the coming game came in mid-April, when Boro again defeated the Canaries, this time at Carrow Road. The game was considerably more even, with Norwich dominating much of the play yet succumbing to an Alex Tettey own goal in the eighth minute. It was one of only three defeats that Neil has suffered in the Norwich hot seat.

Prediction: Which Club Will Reach the Premier League?

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Despite having been beaten by Middlesbrough twice this season, Norwich are narrow favourites to join Bournemouth and Watford in the Premier League next season.

Their form since Alex Neil took over has been sensational. In terms of attack, they're less reliant on one single player for goals than Boro are with Patrick Bamford.

They may have been less convincing over the two legs of their semi-final, but the fact they knocked out their biggest local rivals will have more than offset that fact.