The 2015 NHL Draft Prospects Most Likely to Slide on Draft Day

It seems every NHL draft has at least one notable prospect fall. Last year, NHL Central Scouting's top-ranked European skater, Kasperi Kapanen, wasn’t chosen until the Pittsburgh Penguins took him off the board with the 22nd selection.

Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler is another prime example, as he wasn’t selected until the 11th pick in 2010 even though some scouting services projected him as the third-best prospect in the draft.

In saying that, it’s easier said than done when projecting who will fall in 2015 NHL draft on June 26 and 27.

The writing is on the wall for some prospects, such as Swedish blueliner Oliver Kylington, because several scouting services have continually dropped their ranking throughout the season. But there are other prospects with concerns surrounding their games that teams might be willing to overlook because of enticing intangibles like raw skill or size.

Here’s a look at seven NHL prospects who have good odds of sliding on draft day. The ranking only consists of players with the potential to don a sweater in the first round. It was put together with the help of some scouts who targeted these prospects as players with notable concerns that could cause teams to pass them over. Moreover, these are prospects the various scouting services notably disagree on.

7. Pavel Zacha, Center/Wing, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

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With a 6’3”, 214-pound frame, a dynamic skill set and an edge to his game, Zacha has separated himself from the masses in the 2015 draft class. The Czech Republic native put it all on display in North America this year as he joined the Sting after being the top pick in the 2014 CHL import draft.

Draft status: Central Scouting’s eighth overall ranking among North American skaters fits the trend with other scouting services’ takes on Zacha. It’s one spot ahead of McKeen’s Hockey’s ranking and two ahead of International Scouting Services.

Cause for concern: Although he clearly has a lot of upside, there seems to be a little more risk in Zacha than other prospects in the Nos. 7-11 range. He processes plays a step slower than some scouts would like while not showing enough offensive-zone pressure. In addition, his stats, 16 goals and 34 points in 37 games, aren’t exactly overwhelming for a potential top-10 prospect. These concerns could cause him to slide somewhere between No. 12 and No. 16.

6. Mathew Barzal, Center, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

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Barzal stands out from the draft crowd because of his elite vision and hockey sense. He sees the game extremely well, possesses elite playmaking abilities and has the know-how to read a play a second before it happens. It shows in his stats, as he racked up 12 goals and 57 points in 44 matches this year.

Draft status: He came into the year considered a clear-cut top-10 prospect but dropped throughout the year. Central Scouting (11th) and McKeen’s Hockey (10th) believe he’s in the No. 9-12 range.

Cause for concern: His high-end skill should keep him inside the first 15 picks; however, his lack of physicality, not overly big frame (6’0”, 181 lbs) and moments during the year when he was awfully quiet should drop him outside of the top 10.

5. Travis Konecny, Center/Wing, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

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Konecny forced his way onto the draft scene last year when he won the OHL’s Rookie of the Year award after posting 70 points in 63 contests. His superb numbers are a testament to his high-end talent. He’s an excellent skater who possesses great puck-handling skills, a quality shot and top-notch hockey sense.

Draft status: ISS (12th), McKeen’s Hockey (11th) and Central Scouting (14th) all feel he’s a top-15 prospect. HockeyProspect.com, however, went against the grain by ranking him 20th overall.

Cause for concern: The London, Ontario, native would be a clear-cut top-15 selection if he were three inches taller. It’s his smaller 5’10”, 172-pound stature that could cause him to drop on draft day. On top of that, he scored two fewer points this year (29 goals and 68 points in 60 games) than in his rookie season.

4. Filip Chlapik, Center, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL)

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The Czech Republic product broke Charlottetown’s rookie scoring record this year with 33 goals and 75 points in 64 matches. His numbers, combined with his 6’1”, 183-pound stature, elite hockey IQ and solid offensive skills, put him in the conversation of potential top-30 picks.

Draft status: Central Scouting feels Chlapik will don a jersey in the first round, as the organization ranked him 18th overall among North American skaters.

Cause for concern: To be an impact forward in the NHL, a player has to be able to skate well and have the speed to move the puck up the ice quickly. Chlapik is below-average when it comes to those two areas in his game. In addition, not every scouting service is as high on him as Central Scouting. ISS and McKeen’s Hockey have him sitting outside of the top 30.

Ben Kerr of Last Word On Sports writes:

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Filip Chlapik shows a choppy skating stride, which can hurt his top end speed and acceleration, as they are merely average. Chlapik also lacks good first step quickness.  He does have the agility to elude defenders though and his ability to vary speeds can beat defenders one on one.

"

3. Colin White, Center, USA NTDP (USHL)

White, a Boston College commit, plays a solid two-way game, possesses excellent hockey sense and has a selfless attitude. He seems to be a safer prospect because of his complete game, but his lack of explosive skill leads scouts to believe that he doesn’t have the talent to develop into a top-line forward in the NHL.

Draft status: Central Scouting feels he’s a second-round prospect based on projecting him as the 29th-best North American skater. ISS is a lot higher on him, though, as the scouting organization pegged him as the 15th-best prospect in the draft.

Cause for concern: He’s a quality two-way center but didn’t wow anybody with his stats—23 goals and 54 points in 54 games—considering he was in the USHL. In addition, most prospects who project as future third-line players aren’t picked until the No. 25-30 range, so he will likely fall past ISS’ 15th overall projection.

2. Jeremy Bracco, Wing, USA NTDP (USHL)

Bracco posted jaw-dropping numbers (30 goals and 94 points in 65 games) while playing a high-energy game for the USA National Team Development Program this year. But since he has a 5’9”, 172-pound build, scouts are skeptical as to how the Boston College commit will transition his game to the pros.

“Everyone usually knocks me for my size, but I kind of use it as motivation to try and be the best player on the rink,” the Freeport, New York, native told USA Hockey Magazine's Ryan Satkowiak.

Draft status: Some scouting services feel Bracco is worthy of a top-30 draft choice, including ISS (28th overall) and Future Considerations (21st overall).

Cause for concern: Despite some of his high rankings and incredible stats, it seems likely that he will fall well outside of the first round. The precedent set with Rocco Grimaldi in 2011 backs up this prediction, as his smaller frame played a huge role in his dropping outside of the first round even though scouts considered him one of the best talents in the draft.

1. Oliver Kylington, Defense, Farjestad (SWE)

Kylington was in the conversation of the top five prospects in the draft at the start of the year but has since became the biggest faller largely because of a poor showing at the U18 Five Nations Tournament and early-season struggles in Sweden. He remains a potential top-30 pick due to his elite skill set, though.

“Until recently, offensive Swedish defenseman Oliver Kylington was in the mix, but his horrid performance at this month's Five Nations tournament in the Czech Republic scared the hell out of us, if we were a club picking in the five to eight range,” said Red Line scout Kyle Woodlief in a USA Today story.

Draft status: Central Scouting dropped Kylington, who notched two goals and five points in 18 games in the Swedish Hockey League, from its No. 1 to No. 6 European skater in the draft. McKeen’s Hockey, meanwhile, projected the Stockholm native as the 27th-best prospect in the draft.

Cause for concern: No one is denying Kylington’s smooth stride and high-end skill, but his consistency issues have been made evident this year. In addition, scouts have been alarmed by his positioning and lack of strength (6 feet, 181 lbs) at times. These concerns could cause him to go from a potential top-five pick to a second-round selection.