NHL Playoffs 2015: Handicapping Each Conference Finalist's Stanley Cup Odds

It’s too bad college hockey adopted the term Frozen Four before the NHL. Granted, that keeps in tradition better with college basketball’s Final Four designation of the last two rounds of the playoffs. But let’s face it, the Frozen Four is a cool motto that would probably sell better in the NHL.

Whatever you want to call the remaining four-team tournament, we have an excellent field left: Chicago vs. Anaheim in the Western Conference, New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay in the East.

We know one thing already: It’s going to be warm in one of the Stanley Cup finalist cities. That’s about as sure a thing as we can predict right now, as these figure to be two very close series. If anyone were to say any of the remaining clubs will be your Cup winner when it’s all over, would you be shocked?

No, these are four teams capable of winning it all if their top players show up.

Which squad has the best odds of capturing the Cup, though? My criteria for picking, aside from my natural abilities as a seer, includes an evaluation of:

1. Talent
2. Hunger
3. Health
4. A witch's brew of intangibles

Read on...

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The road ahead 

It won't be easy if the Lightning are to get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since winning it in 2004.

The New York Rangers, fresh off another stunning series comeback victory on home ice, stand in the way. The Lightning have had a hard path to get this far, though, having been extended to seven games by Detroit and six by Montreal. So, they are already battle-hardened.

Reason to buy

Steven Stamkos is getting hot again. For the Lightning, this is your Grade A, No. 1 reason to feel good right now. Stamkos, the NHL's second-leading regular-season goal scorer with 43 tallies, is on a five-game point streak entering Game 1.

The Lightning got great goaltending from Ben Bishop in the second round against Montreal, including a final two games in which he stopped 45 of 48 shots. The Lightning play with speed and showed a good deal of heart in closing out two series many thought they might let slip.

“Last year, we were a young group; I think half the team didn’t play a playoff game” forward Nikita Kucherov said prior to facing the Canadiens, per the Associated Press (via the New York Times). “This year we are more mature, and we have more confidence.”

Defenseman Victor Hedman has been tremendous in the playoffs. He's been even or a plus in 10 of 13 postseason games.

Reason to sell

How effective will Ryan Callahan be after having his appendix removed just a few days ago? He told the Tampa Bay Times' Matt Baker he's "day-to-day" but hopes to be back for Game 1 against his former team.

When he was healthy, Callahan wasn't very good for Tampa Bay. After a 24-goal regular season, he had only three points, all assists, in 12 games. So, there's reason to worry about Tampa Bay's offensive depth if Stamkos cools off again.

At 18 percent so far in the playoffs, the power play needs to be better. Other than Stamkos, the Bolts tend to overpass and try to be too fancy at times. That needs to stop.

Will lift the Cup if...

Stamkos gets even hotter. He lifts everybody up when he's got it going and, more importantly, really puts opposing goalies and defenses on edge. If Callahan can return and play more to his normal level, it would greatly help matters.

Stanley Cup odds: 9-1 

3. Anaheim Ducks

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

The road ahead

The Anaheim Ducks didn’t have quite as long a layoff as Chicago, but it was a long one nevertheless. That was probably a better thing for the Ducks, especially for star winger Corey Perry, who suffered a leg injury in Game 5 against Calgary last week and skated gingerly at times afterward (despite scoring the series-clinching goal).

But as coach Bruce Boudreau told the Orange County Register's Eric Stephens: "With the time we have off, there’s no rush to get Corey Perry back on the ice. He’s going to get a couple practices before the game and he’s going to play Sunday. There’s no doubt in our minds about that."

Anaheim’s home crowd can be a little too Southern California laid-back at times, but the fans should be plenty into it for this series. Expect a good amount of Blackhawk red in the stands of Honda Center, too, as their fans seem to be everywhere these days.

Make no mistake, though: The Ducks organization wants this series. And don't forget one thing: Anaheim general manager Bob Murray is a former Blackhawks captain who later served as their GM from 1997 to 1999 before being dumped. 

Reason to buy 

First off, they have home-ice advantage, and that could be big in this series. Chicago is 5-0 at home so far, but so are the Ducks, and they would have the luxury of playing a potential Game 7 at Honda Center. Boudreau is a great bench-matchup strategist, so having the last change potentially more than Chicago coach Joel Quenneville is a good thing for the Ducks.

Obviously, Perry and Ryan Getzlaf give this team a legitimate chance. The pair is big, skilled and has been there and done that when it comes to winning a Cup. That happened for both in 2007, while it’s been all of two years since Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane did it. So the Ducks arguably have the intangible of hunger on their side.

Anaheim’s forward depth is underrated, with guys such as Jakob Silfverberg, Patrick Maroon and Matt Beleskey all having excellent playoffs. Anaheim is the highest-scoring team of the postseason so far at 3.89 goals per game. The league average is 2.43.

Then there is the power play. Of the teams left in the postseason, Anaheim is tops at 31 percent.

Reason to sell

Let's be honest: Anaheim has had the easiest playoff draw to this point. No offense to Winnipeg and Calgary, but there was no way either team was going to win the Cup this year. Now the Ducks have the deep, skilled and battle-tested Blackhawks as their opponent. Will it be too much of a culture shock for Anaheim, going from the Jets and Flames to the Blackhawks?

This is the deepest Frederik Andersen has ever played into the postseason, so how well the young Ducks goalie handles the pressure is an open question. While the Ducks have a good defense, they lack the kind of dynamic two-way defenseman—Duncan Keith, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman—the other squads have.

Will lift the Cup if…

The Ducks get the same kind of depth scoring as they did in the first two rounds.

The Maroon-Getzlaf-Perry line will get a huge amount of defensive attention, of course, so it will be crucial for the second and third lines to put something on the board if the top unit is held in check.

Ryan Kesler figures to be a huge X-factor in the series. He’s one of the best two-way centers in the game, so if he can do a decent job on Toews, as he’s fully capable of, Anaheim’s chances would go way up.

Stanley Cup odds: 7-1

2. New York Rangers

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

The road ahead

At the trade deadline last season, the Rangers and Lightning completed a blockbuster deal that sent Martin St. Louis to New York and Ryan Callahan to Tampa Bay. A little more than a year later, the teams will play for a trip to the Stanley Cup Final.

The Rangers are your defending Eastern Conference champs and enter the series following a great comeback against the Washington Capitals. Tampa Bay plays a similar style to that of Washington, with a lot of pace, so the Rangers should be ready for that brand of hockey.

Reason to buy

Henrik Lundqvist is red hot, with a save percentage of .930 or better in his last 10 games. So, there you go. Only a Stanley Cup ring is absent from Lundqvist's great career, and we all know how badly he wants one.

"It is on my mind a lot, I’m not gonna lie," Lundqvist told Steve Serby of the New York Post. "I don’t know if it’s an obsession, but when you look at how much time we all put into this, and how much it means—it’s hard not to call it obsessed. That’s why we play. You want to win. I always say it’s about the journey, too."

The Rangers have a smart, adaptable coach in Alain Vigneault, who doesn't get as much credit as he deserves. If New York makes it to the final, it will be his third as a coach since taking Vancouver there in 2011 and the Rangers last season.

Reason to sell 

Maybe going against his former team in a playoff series will revive St. Louis, because the Rangers' first 12 postseason games saw him go without a goal. The Rangers have managed to get by without key forward Mats Zuccarello (injured and out for the rest of the playoffs), which is why they need guys like the veteran St. Louis to pick it up.

A little more offense from players such as Carl Hagelin (two goals) and Dominic Moore (zero goals) wouldn’t hurt, either. And as of Thursday, there was no firm word yet on the condition of veteran defenseman Dan Boyle.

Boyle left Wednesday’s Game 7 in the second period after a hard hit from Washington’s Brooks Orpik. The Rangers did not practice Thursday. Boyle was on the ice, however, in uniform to shake hands with the Capitals, so that has to be an encouraging sign.

While Rick Nash has been better than he was last year in the postseason, he remains too much of a streaky scorer. He has two goals through 12 games. A nice four- or five-goal series, which he is more than capable of having, would be fine by Vigneault.

Will lift the Cup if…

Lundqvist has at least eight additional consecutive games with a .930 save percentage or better.

He is the undisputed best goalie remaining in the playoffs. The Rangers have proved for at least two years now that they are more than a one-man squad, however. They are a team of players who seem to know and enjoy their roles, which is a credit to Vigneault.

Stanley Cup odds: 3-1

1. Chicago Blackhawks

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

The road ahead

Maybe the most pertinent question entering the Western Conference Final for the Blackhawks is: Do they still remember how to play the game? Hasn’t it seemed like five years since they last played? All the days off between the second and third rounds has made some Chicago media members a little bored, it seems.

There should be plenty to write about once the puck drops in the Blackhawks’ series with Anaheim, though. Complacency is always a worry for any coach, and Joel Quenneville has grown a few gray hairs in his day as a world-class worrier (in a good way!).

But Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times made a good point about the long layoff for the team he covers (and the Ducks, too):

"

Momentum, whatever it is, does exist. Any hockey player will tell you that. It exists within games, and it exists between periods. But it’s debatable whether it exists between games. And it’s unlikely it exists between series. And it sure as heck doesn’t exist right now for either the Blackhawks or the Anaheim Ducks. Not with nine days between series for the Hawks, and six for the Ducks.

"

In other words: The layoff has been long for both teams. It can't be an excuse.

Reason to buy

This series features the great tag team matchup of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane against Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf.

It’s tough, but I’ll have to go with Toews and Kane over the dynamic Ducks duo and list them as the reason the Blackhawks have the best chance to win the Cup. We’ve all run out of superlatives to describe Toews, who has two Cups and two Olympic gold medals to his name at age 27.

Then there is that top two on defense—Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook. While Anaheim has a very good defense, Keith and Seabrook are a step above in top-two quality, and they see the most ice time.

Reason to sell

Will it be Round 1 Corey Crawford or Round 2 Corey Crawford? It’s always a desperate exercise trying to list weaknesses on the Blackhawks, but the goaltending is usually where people go.

Crawford started the playoffs, found himself lifted early for Scott Darling, then reclaimed the top spot late in Round 1 and continued on with excellent play against Minnesota in the second round.

Coach Joel Quenneville is notorious for his short leash with goalies, sometimes for good reason. Crawford, a big netminder who needs to see the puck, will face more screens this series probably than he has in either of the previous two. Perry, Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler are constantly crashing the net, and if they can keep Crawford from seeing the puck or get him moving side to side with frequency, Chicago could be in trouble.

Will lift the Cup if...

They can steal one of the first two games in Anaheim and put some real pressure on a team that hasn’t been tested much so far in the postseason.

It would be interesting to see how the Ducks respond to the 21,273 fans that fill the United Center to a full-throated roar every game. Home ice is a key in this matchup, and if the Blackhawks can get back to Chicago at any point in a position to extend a series lead or close it, the United Center factor will be big.

Stanley Cup odds: Even money