Prospects Most Likely to Be Picked Too High in the 2015 NHL Draft

NHL scouts dissect every player in the draft, discarding those who aren't good enough and settling on the 210 best names available.

In defining the best player, organizations tweak things based on their own needs and bias. Every year NHL teams draft specific player types too high, and it will happen again this season.

Here are eight players who are overrated as we enter draft season and will likely be taken too high at the 2015 draft.

8. Samuel Montembeault, G, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada

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Where Is He Ranked? Samuel Montembeault is the No. 3-ranked goalie on the North American list by Central Scouting. 

Why Is He Valuable? Montembeault is not a big goalie (6'2", 173 lbs), but he has quick reflexes and won a starting role in one of the best junior leagues in the world. He also played more than 50 games, suggesting he's a workhorse goaltender.

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: His save percentage—the most accurate way to measure goalies—is well down the list of QMJHL starters and suggests his ability to stop pucks may not be equal to his reputation. If he goes in the first three rounds—and his ranking suggests it is possible—that would represent questionable value for the team selecting him.

7. Denis Guryanov, LW, Togliatti 2 (MHL)

Where Is He Ranked? Denis Guryanov—his name is often spelled Gurianov—is ranked No. 7 among European skaters for the 2015 entry draft. The European skater list is one of four produced annually by Central Scouting. A player in his range should be expected to go near the end of the first round in a normal year.

Why Is He Valuable? Guryanov is a smooth winger with size (6'3", 192 lbs) and skill, and NHL scouts look for this kind of player. The offense has been on display at international tournaments, which means he's been viewed heavily and scouts will value him.

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: The Russian factor, when it comes to signing prospects, exists and is a major consideration. A player with the KHL as an option may be more difficult to sign, and in a deep draft like 2015, NHL teams have many alternate choices. On value, Guryanov is a first-round pick, but he won't be off the board in the top 50 unless an NHL team really likes him and believes signing him won't be an issue. 

6. Colin White, C, U.S. National Development Team (USHL)

Where Is He Ranked? Colin White is ranked No. 29 on the final Central Scouting list for North American skaters. He is the top-ranked player from the U.S. national development team in this year's draft.

Why Is He Valuable? White is a quality player in all three zones, as described by Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects. Joe describes a player with a complete skill set.

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: The Central Scouting ranking for White may well turn out to be accurate, but the hardest thing to acquire in the draft is offense. When White's team played head-to-head against USHL opposition, his offense trailed several other draft-eligible players on his own team. White's range of ability may make him the best available player from his team, but it may be a mistake to take him in the first round of such a deep draft.

5. Paul Bittner, LW, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)

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Where Is He Ranked? Paul Bittner of the Portland Winterhawks is ranked No. 26 on Central Scouting's North American list.

Why Is He Valuable? Bittner is 6'4", 204 pounds and can score goals—he netted 34 of them in 2014-15. He can skate, plays a physical style and works hard. 

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: A lot of the offense for Bittner comes as a result of playing with elite-level linemates. As Joe Yerdon from NHL.com notes in a January 2015 article, Bittner played much of the season with impact forwards Oliver Bjorkstrand and Nicolas Petan. That duo dominated the WHL this season, and Bittner benefited from playing on their line. He's a good prospect, but the numbers he delivered were somewhat dependent on his linemates.

4. Brandon Carlo, D, Tri-City Americans (WHL)

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Where Is He Ranked? Brandon Carlo of the Tri-City Americans is ranked No. 25 among North American skaters on the Central Scouting final list. He is the No. 4-ranked defenseman from the WHL this season.

Why Is He Valuable? At 6'5", 196 pounds, Carlo is one of the tallest players in the draft and should be able to add some bulk before turning pro. His major calling card is that despite his size he is a good skater—a valuable package for NHL teams. 

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: Carlo scored 25 points in 63 games this season, and if that's representative of his offensive ability, there will be more valuable players still available for teams. If Carlo is selected later in the second or early in the third round, that would be a better reflection of his actual value.

3. Noah Juulsen, D, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

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Where Is He Ranked? Noah Juulsen of the Everett Silvertips is the No. 22 player on Central Scouting's North American list.

Why Is He Valuable? Juulsen is an effective two-way defender who posted 52 points in 68 WHL games in 2014-15. He is not a big player (6'2", 172 lbs), but he possesses a range of skills. Juulsen had 29 points on the power play this season. 

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: This year's draft has a tremendous number of defensemen with similar skills, and there's no available evidence to show Juulsen's skills merit a first-round selection. His offense relies heavily on power-play time, and that may not be available to him at the next level. The gap between Juulsen and players lower on Central's list appears to be minimal.

2. Pavel Zacha, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL)

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Where Is He Ranked? Pavel Zacha of the Sarnia Sting is ranked No. 8 among Central Scouting's North American skaters. Craig Button of TSN has him No. 30 on his latest list.

Why Is He Valuable? Zacha has the full range of skills, including the fact that he's 6'3", 210 pounds. He is also an effective offensive prospect, although he did not reach the point-per-game level in the OHL this season.

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: There's a wide range of opinion on Zacha, reflected by the substantial gap in ranking by Central Scouting and Button. If he goes closer to No. 30 as suggested by Button's ranking, that would represent fair value. Chances are he'll go inside the top 15 overall, making him a reach selection.

1. Lawson Crouse, LW, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

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Where Is He Ranked? Lawson Crouse is ranked No. 5 among skaters by Central Scouting on their North American list. He is also No. 11 on Craig Button's list for TSN.

Why Is He Valuable? NHL scouts look at Crouse and see an attractive combination of power and skill. A power forward—he is 6'4", 215 pounds—who can play a complementary role on a skill line has exceptional value to teams.

Why He'll Be Picked Too Soon: Crouse led his team in scoring, but his numbers are not dynamic enough to warrant a pick inside the top dozen selections. An NHL team could be drafting a quality power forward or a solid checker, and the statistical evidence isn't there. The offensive question marks are substantial enough to suggest he's unlikely to cover the bet that a top pick implies.

Central Scouting listings are courtesy of NHL.com.