Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks: Second-Round Analysis and Predictions
Regular-season meetings between these two clubs were a fairly one-sided affair, but the Washington Wizards are here to change all that after deftly sweeping the Toronto Raptors in their opening round. The Atlanta Hawks had a slightly more difficult time upending the Brooklyn Nets, but they'll remain favorites in this series until something happens to change that.
That's what a 60-win season and No. 1 seed will do for you.
Atlanta's only regular-season loss to the fourth-seeded Wizards came late in the campaign when head coach (and Coach of the Year) Mike Budenholzer opted to rest his starters. Washington will have to look elsewhere for confidence, perhaps counting on its stout front line to establish an advantage over the relatively undersized Al Horford and Paul Millsap.
Making short work of the Raptors certainly hasn't hurt, though.
"I think myself individually and as a team, we did a better job of handling [the pressure]," shooting guard Bradley Beal recently told reporters, per Todd Dybas of The Washington Times. "I think we were a lot more focused than we were last year. I think we knew what was at stake this year and what we wanted to get to.
"I think last year, we were just happy to be in the playoffs, then we got past the first round, then we wanted to start setting higher goals. I think now, we have an ultimate goal, it's the same for everybody around the league."
Both teams will count heavily on their speedy point guards: John Wall and Jeff Teague. The All-Star floor generals will be charged with maintaining their teams' preferred pace, along with handling the lion's share of playmaking duties.
If Wall delivers on his superstar potential at the right moments, the regular-season meetings between these two clubs might not count for much at all.
Head-to-Head Record: 3-1, Hawks
| Date | Result | Note |
| Nov. 25 | 106-102 Hawks | Wall's 13 assists not enough |
| Jan. 11 | 120-89 Hawks | Korver drains 5 3-pointers |
| Feb. 4 | 105-96 Hawks | Teague with 26 points, 8 assists |
| April 12 | 108-99 Wizards | Hawks rest starters |
Series Schedule
| Game | Time | Location | TV |
| Game 1 | 1:00 pm ET | Atlanta, GA | ABC |
| Game 2 | 8:00 pm ET | Atlanta, GA | TNT |
| Game 3 | 5:00 pm ET | Washington D.C. | ESPN |
| Game 4 | 7:00 pm ET | Washington D.C. | TNT |
| Game 5* | TBA | Atlanta, GA | TNT |
| Game 6* | TBA | Washington D.C. | ESPN |
| Game 7* | 8:00 pm ET | Atlanta, GA | TNT |
Key Season Stats
| Team | Home Record | Road Record | ORtg (Rank) | DRtng (Rank) | Net Rtg (Rank) |
| Hawks | 35-6 | 25-16 | 106.2 (6) | 100.7 (7) | 5.6 (4) |
| Wizards | 29-12 | 17-24 | 101.8 (19) | 100.0 (5) | 1.9 (12) |
Hawks' X-Factor: Paul Millsap
After starting the opening round with a 2-of-11 shooting performance, Millsap quickly hit his stride and made a significant impact for the remainder of the series. He went on to average an impressive line of 15.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.2 steals per contest. Against the bigger bodies of Marcin Gortat and Nene Hilario, Millsap should have his hands full.
Wizards' X-Factor: Paul Pierce
Series like this one are precisely why the Wizards signed Pierce last summer. He was built for the big stage, and—even at age 37—he can still play on it. The 17-year veteran upped his scoring fairly dramatically after posting 11.9 points per contest during the regular season. In four appearances against Toronto, he tallied 15.5 points per game and proved plenty capably of making a timely impact.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions:
Will Washington's defense hold?
The Raptors had the league's third-best offensive efficiency this season, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. But Toronto topped 100 points just once in four attempts against the Wizards' stingy defense, and that creates some serious questions about Atlanta's ability to score at will in these semifinals.
Before getting too carried away, it's worth remembering Atlanta did average 3.5 more assists per 100 possessions than the Raptors this season. That kind of ball movement will stretch the Wizards in ways Toronto simply couldn't.
Which Hawks will show up?
Atlanta absolutely decimated the Nets in Game 6 by a final score of 111-87. That's what many expected from them, but the rest of the series was far less clear-cut, evidenced by the fact there was a Game 6 in the first place.
Given the confidence and momentum at Washington's back, the Hawks can't afford to come out with any second-best efforts. Remember, these Hawks haven't been in the conference semifinals since 2011—back when the roster looked almost entirely different. This is largely uncharted territory, and the Wizards could exploit that in the event Atlanta is anything less than consistent.
Who Has the Depth Advantage?
Yes, rotations do tend to shorten during the postseason, but that doesn't mean depth becomes irrelevant. That's particularly true for ensemble outfits like the Hawks, who are still getting quality minutes from the likes of Dennis Schroder and Pero Antic.
That said, Washington's bench actually scored at a higher clip than Atlanta's during the regular season, posting 33.4 points per contest to the latter's 31.7, according to HoopsStats.com.
Could the Wizards have a deceptive edge in terms of depth? Reserves Otto Porter Jr. and and Drew Gooden combined to average 18.5 points per game in the first round, and similar performances against the Hawks could keep things plenty interesting.
Why the Hawks Will Win
The Hawks may not have a legitimate superstar, but they have a whole lot of weapons. They have guys who can space the floor (Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll), create off the dribble (Teague, Schroder) and score from the low or high post (Horford, Millsap). That kind of offensive versatility has paid dividends all season long, and it's hard to imagine that changing now.
Then there's the Budenholzer effect. Good as head coach Randy Wittman has been for the Wizards, he's facing a Popovich protege who's had instant and significant success in restoring the Hawks to relevance. The team has fully bought into Budenholzer's philosophy, and the system it's produced is as good as they come.
Why the Wizards Will Win
If defense wins championships, it probably helps in the conference semifinals, too. The Wizards will need everything they can get from Wall and Beal on the offensive end, but their defense may afford them slightly greater margin for error. If Washington can control the pace and pick up some easy buckets via transition and offensive rebounding, this should be a tightly contested series.
Speaking of Wall and Beal, there's a real chance they take this series over. Wall has already indicated he's working to expand his game.
"Knowing I can dictate the game by not just scoring, doing other things," Wall told reporters. "When I play defense first, it gets my offense going a lot."
And that's the scenario Atlanta can't afford: a defense-to-offense clinic by one of the game's most lethal point guards.
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks in 6
