2015 NFL Mock Draft: Projecting the Smartest Picks in Round 1

Sometimes, the smart pick in the NFL draft goes a long way.

Risks are fun. They turn heads, and the reward—at least in the minds of the risk-takers—far outweighs the initial risk.

Last year is a good albeit early example, as the Houston Texans decided to pass on a quarterback at No. 1 overall and only got a few games out of pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney. 

A few spots down the board, the Buffalo Bills took the sure thing in wide receiver Sammy Watkins and watched as he appeared in all 16 games and caught 65 passes for 982 yards and six touchdowns.

This year's draft will be no different. In hindsight, the smartest picks will be quite obvious. Let's attempt to nail a few down now after a look at full first-round projections.

2015 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Leonard Williams, DL, USC
5	Washington Redskins	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
7	Chicago Bears	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
9	New York Giants	La'el Collins, OL, LSU
10	St. Louis Rams	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
11	Minnesota Vikings	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Arik Armstead, DE/OLB, Oregon
13	New Orleans Saints	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
14	Miami Dolphins	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
16	Houston Texans	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
17	San Diego Chargers	Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Owamagbe Odighizuwa, OLB, UCLA
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
25	Carolina Panthers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
26	Baltimore Ravens	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
27	Dallas Cowboys	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	Mario Edwards, DL, Florida State
30	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
32	New England Patriots	Byron Jones, CB, UConn

Smartest Round 1 Picks

No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars, Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Everyone's surprise pick late in the home stretch seems to belong to the Jacksonville Jaguars, with Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson hearing the team has a strong interest in Alabama wideout Amari Cooper.

While Cooper is worth such a high pick, the Jaguars already tout a trio of budding wideouts in Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee. The front office might be more inclined to see how the three mesh with quarterback Blake Bortles and spend the selection elsewhere.

Selecting Dante Fowler Jr. would be the smartest thing the Jaguars could do. They already look strong on the interior with Sen'Derrick Marks recording 8.5 sacks a season ago and the offseason addition of Jared Odrick.

What the defense could use, though, is a top-flight edge defender who can apply pressure at will and stand tall against the rush. There are many, such as ESPN's Jon Gruden (h/t Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean), who believe Fowler is the top defender in this year's class:

If Fowler joins an already-underrated defense that tallied 45 sacks a year ago, Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck—among many others—will have increased issues dealing with coach Gus Bradley's unit.

Bradley is one of the best minds in the business, and giving him a weapon such as Fowler accelerates the rebuilding process in a big way.

No. 4: Oakland Raiders, Leonard Williams, DL, USC

There's an allure to the thought of the Oakland Raiders going offense as well, perhaps also with Cooper or West Virginia's Kevin White.

It just doesn't make a lot of sense from a value standpoint considering the Raiders already tout what looks like a respectable crop of players at the position in James Jones, Michael Crabtree and Kenbrell Thompkins.

It especially doesn't make sense if USC's Leonard Williams is on the board. Standing at 6'5" and 302 pounds, he's perhaps the most hyped defensive lineman since Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. He seems to love the idea of playing in Oakland, too, per NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano:

The Raiders should get comfortable with the idea. Oakland needs another force on the interior to pair with Dan Williams and free up promising linebackers Sio Moore and Khalil Mack.

Williams offers this part of the equation in a big way thanks to his elite ability to clog running lanes and provide a rush of his own up the middle.

Drafting a tackle such as Williams creates a ripple effect on the rest of the unit and will prove to be one of the best moves of the draft.

No. 11: Minnesota Vikings, DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

This isn't Hollywood, but pairing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with one of his favorite collegiate targets makes too much sense.

Most figure defensive-minded Minnesota Vikings coach Mike Zimmer will address his favorite side of the football again, but even he must understand the value of throwing a reunion party at No. 11.

After all, DeVante Parker has made it clear on the path to the draft that he'd love to play with Bridgewater again.

“We have connections, so that'd be good,” Parker said, per Vikings.com's Mike Wobschall. “We already knew what Teddy could do, he was prepared the whole time. People doubted him, he just proved everybody wrong.”

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

As a close third behind the draft's top two wideouts (Cooper and White), Parker is well worth the selection at 11th overall. He features elite hands, sure route running and an ability to high-point passes over defensive backs. The size is there as well, considering he stands at 6'3" and 209 pounds.

NFL.com's Lance Zierlein makes the case for Parker as a first-round prospect: "He has consistently posted eye-popping yards-per-catch numbers during his time at Louisville and showed off solid athleticism at the combine. Parker has the potential to be a legitimate lead receiver for a West Coast offense."

Minnesota could go many different ways here, but Parker's the best fit in more ways than one.

In the NFL, the definition of "smart" is doing whatever it takes to help a promising young quarterback develop into a franchise player.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of April 29. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.