Canadiens vs. Lightning: Preview and Prediction for 2015 NHL Playoffs Matchup

For the second straight season, the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning will tangle in a postseason series. The Lightning will be hoping they have a smidgen more success this time around.

In 2014, the Canadiens stormed through the Lightning with a first-round sweep, although there were extenuating circumstances. Ben Bishop suffered a late-season injury that left the Lightning with Anders Lindback, who was decidedly overmatched against the Canadiens.

That won't be the case this year, as both teams are healthy. 

Which team has the edge? What are the storylines? What time are the games on TV? There are a lot of questions, and the answers to those and more lie ahead.

Schedule and TV Info

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The schedule breaks down as follows (all times ET):

• Game 1: Friday, May 1, 7 p.m. (CBC, TVA Sports, NBCSN)
• Game 2: Sunday, May 3, 6 p.m. (CBC, TVA Sports, NBCSN)
• Game 3: Wednesday, May 6, 7 p.m. (USA, CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 4: Thursday, May 7, 7 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 5: *Saturday, May 9, TBD (CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 6: *Tuesday, May 12, TBD (CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 7: *Thursday, May 14, TBD (TBD)

*If necessary

How They Got Here

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Montreal Canadiens

A 3-0 series lead against the Ottawa Senators turned into a six-game victory, largely because of Carey Price stopping 43 shots in a 2-0 Game 6 win. The Habs have a hard time scoring goals, but with Price in net, they haven't had to score all that often. They were 20th in scoring in the regular season (2.66 per game) and scored just 12 goals against the Senators. They'll need to improve on what they've done in the playoffs so far.

Tampa Bay Lightning

It wasn't easy, but the Lightning squeezed past the Detroit Red Wings in seven games—and did so despite Steven Stamkos failing to score a goal. The league's top offense in the regular season (3.16 goals per game) scored just 17 goals in seven games (2.43) against the Red Wings. If Stamkos finds his scoring touch, that number will surely rise. With Price at the other end of the ice, however, it won't be easy.

Key Storylines

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Can Steven Stamkos Find His Game?

As you may have heard, Stamkos hasn't scored a goal in the playoffs, which is a problem for a player who scored 43 in the regular season. He had 22 shots in seven games against the Red Wings, so he's getting his usual amount of chances—he averaged 3.26 shots per game in the regular season—but he's not finishing them. That needs to change.

Will the Regular Season Matter?

It never does, but it's hard to ignore Tampa Bay's 5-0 mark against Montreal this season. Take away those four games involving Anders Lindback, and the Canadiens are winless in their last seven meetings with the Lightning. The five losses this season were mostly drubbings; the Lightning won by a combined 21-8 and outshot the Canadiens by an average of 38-24.

It's a different brand of hockey in the postseason, so anything is possible, but the Habs could use a confidence-building win in Game 1.

Will Anyone Score a Power-Play Goal?

Montreal versus Tampa pits the two worst remaining power plays in the postseason. The Lightning (6.7) and Canadiens (5.0) have seemingly zero excuses for their anemic results with the extra man. Each team has play-making defensemen and elite scorers, yet they have combined for just three power-play goals in 50 chances.

Whichever team figures out its power play first will have a leg up in this series.

Players to Watch

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PK Subban, Montreal Canadiens

The Norris Trophy winner in 2013 and finalist this year is the most exciting player on the Canadiens. PK Subban is the Habs' leading scorer with four points—which isn't much, but means he has points on a third of Montreal's goals in the playoffs—and his 23 shots are also the most on the club. He's averaging about 25 minutes per game, and he will have his hands full with the Lightning's top two lines.

Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning

With six goals, Tyler Johnson is tied with the dispatched Vladimir Tarasenko for the playoff lead in goals, and his seven points are tied for second. With Stamkos unable to fill the net in the first round, Johnson was carrying the team on his back. He is quick, small and can do it all. It also helps that while Stamkos draws the top checking lines and defenders, Johnson makes the most of his softer matchups.

Goaltender Breakdown

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Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens

Hart Trophy and Vezina Trophy finalist Carey Price stepped up when the Canadiens needed him most during the first round. Price has a .939 save percentage in six playoff games, which is six points better than his regular-season numbers. The Canadiens haven't played since April 26, so Price is either getting some much-needed rest or accumulating rust.

Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning

Ben Bishop had moments in the first round that made you wonder whether he could get the job done, but he was flawless in Game 7 against Detroit. He stopped all 31 shots he faced in a game that was scoreless through two periods and every save was needed. Bishop has a .922 save percentage after the first round of postseason action and may need to be even better if his team is to vanquish Price's.

Biggest Mismatch

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Lightning vs. Canadiens at Five-on-Five

During the regular season, the Lightning were third in the NHL with a 53.1 percent Fenwick; the Canadiens were 21st at 48.9 percent. In their regular-season matchups, the Lightning had a huge advantage in shot attempts, and there's no reason to think that it will be any different in the postseason.

In seven games against Detroit, the Lightning were at 55.2 percent; the Canadiens were at 51.3 percent in six games against the Senators.

As has been the case all season, Carey Price will need to do damage control for the Habs.

Tampa Bay Will Win If Steven Stamkos Is Just Average

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The second line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat will always get chances, and the third and fourth lines should feast on the Canadiens as well. Therefore, it will come down to how Steven Stamkos and the top line do against Montreal's best players.

No one is saying Stamkos needs to be a point-per-game or goal-per-game player—he just needs to knock a couple goals into the net to make a difference.

Montreal Will Win If Carey Price Is a Brick Wall

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It's no secret that Montreal will go as far as Carey Price takes them, which could be really far, because you may have heard this already, but he's the best goaltender in the world.

Price will have to live around .940 for the Canadiens to progress, which he can do. But if Tampa is too overwhelming at even strength, it may be too much.

Prediction

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Picking against Carey Price is like picking against Hulk Hogan at WrestleMania, but here we are. 

The Lightning are too good, too deep and just good enough in net to keep Price from stealing the series for the Habs. Steven Stamkos is due to to break out, which is bad news for Montreal.

Prediction: Lightning in six