Rangers vs. Capitals: Preview and Prediction for the 2015 NHL Playoffs Matchup

Oh, it's you again.

That's probably the sentiment expressed by both the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers, who will square off in a second-round series that starts Thursday. This marks the fifth time these teams have crossed paths in the postseason since 2009, with the Rangers taking the two most recent matchups (2012, 2013) in seven games.

Sit back and read through to find out about this series' matchups, storylines and key players who could swing what should be another tight series in their team's favor.

Schedule and TV Info

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The schedule breaks down as follows:

• Game 1: Thursday, April 30, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 2: Saturday, May 2, 12:30 p.m. (NBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports)
• Game 3: Monday, May 4, 7:30 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 4: Wednesday, May 6, 7:30 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports)
• Game 5*: Friday, May 8, 7 p.m. (NBCSN, TVA Sports)
• Game 6*: Sunday, May 10 (Time, TV, TBD)
• Game 7*: Wednesday, May 13 (Time, TV, TBD) or Tuesday, May 12 (Time, TV, TBD)

*If necessary

Note: Game 7 of Capitals-Rangers will be Wednesday, May 13 if Tampa Bay eliminates Detroit in Game 7; Game 7 will be Tuesday, May 12 if Detroit advances.

How They Got Here

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New York Rangers

After a Presidents' Trophy in the regular season, the Rangers enjoyed the fruits of their labor with an easy first-round victory against the Penguins that wasn't that easy. The Rangers won in five games, but two went to overtime, and all four victories were by 2-1 scores. With their injuries, the Penguins never really threatened in the series.

Washington Capitals

While the Rangers were resting, the Capitals were in a seven-game battle with the Islanders that only ended Monday. It was by the far the most physical first-round series, and that could take a toll on the Capitals later in the playoffs and perhaps in this series. New coach Barry Trotz has the Capitals playing a stronger five-on-five game this season, which will be needed to knock off the top-seeded Rangers.

Key Storylines

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Rangers injuries

It seems like this isn't a bigger deal in the hockey world at large: Mats Zuccarello is out indefinitely with what is likely a concussion suffered in Game 5 against the Penguins. While he's not a household name, Zuccarello is a top-line right wing on a line with Derick Brassard and Rick Nash and a big piece of the power play. His absence could be costly.

On the bright side, defenseman Kevin Klein is back from a broken arm, which he means Matt Hunwick should be relegated to the press box for the series, as long as Keith Yandle remains in the lineup. He hasn't been practicing, and while he hasn't missed a game in the playoffs, something is keeping him from playing at full capacity. 

Special teams

This is important in every series, but the Capitals' power play is the best in the business. But this is the postseason, and the business of the postseason includes rarely calling penalties. The Caps went 2-for-13 against the Islanders in seven games, which means they averaged fewer than two power plays per game in the series. 

Meanwhile, it's not a postseason unless people are freaking out about the Rangers' power play, which was adequate against the Penguins despite what you may have heard. It went 3-for-20, which is 15 percent and plenty good enough over a five-game sample. But with Yandle hurting and Zuccarello out, there's a chance it falls off a cliff in the second round.

“Each individual is going to respond differently,” Dan Boyle said during the first round. “Pressure is pressure. You have to enjoy it and handle it the right way.”

The goaltenders

Braden Holtby (.943) and Henrik Lundqvist (.939) were fantastic in the first round and will be in the spotlight in the second round. They are among the best of the best in the NHL, and this is the second time they will clash in the postseason. Lundqvist got the best of Holtby in Game 7 (a 5-0 Rangers win) in 2013.

Could this be the round when regular-season workloads become an issue? Holtby played in a league-high 73 games, while Lundqvist missed two months with a vascular injury that limited him to 46 games. 

Players to Watch

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Rick Nash, New York Rangers

To kick off the most obvious section of this preview, we look at the player who perhaps most killed the Rangers' Stanley Cup hopes a year ago. Nash had three goals and 10 points in 25 games as the Rangers fell just short of a title. At one point during the second round, he was booed at home during Game 4 against the Penguins.

Nash didn't set the world ablaze in the first round, but he was at least visible. His one goal was an Alex Rodriguez goal (a goal scored late in a loss with the game no longer in doubt), but he also had three assists, including one on Kevin Hayes' overtime winner in Game 4. Maybe that's not knocking you over, but he was a factor in the first round, and you couldn't say that about him in any round last year.

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals

When you consider the fact the Capitals barely found themselves on the power play in the first round, tallying two goals and three assists in seven games is impressive for Ovechkin. He helped set up the Capitals' first goal in Game 7 against the Islanders and helped spark a series-saving comeback with a goal in Game 2.

The last time these teams met in the 2013 postseason, Ovechkin had just one goal and one assist in seven games. Prepare to hear that over and over if he doesn't do anything in Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Goaltender Breakdown

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Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers

The only question about Lundqvist is how he will react to such a long layoff. No, not the five days between games—the five days between games plus the five games he played against the Penguins, when he faced just 132 shots (26.4 per game) despite two games going to overtime. Lundqvist could have trimmed his beard in the crease during the Penguins series.

Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

Holtby had a lot more rubber than Lundqvist coming his way during the first round, as he faced nearly 30 shots per game. That number was well above 30 before the Capitals held the Islanders to 11 shots on goal in Game 7. He has a career save percentage of .933 and will probably have to exist somewhere around that number if the Capitals are to beat the Rangers.

Biggest Mismatch

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Capitals size vs. Rangers size

James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail was nice enough to figure out the biggest/oldest teams in the playoffs, and no team is bigger than the Capitals, who average about 6'2" and 211 pounds per man. The Rangers are about an inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter, although that gap will close a bit when Mats Zuccarello leaves the lineup.

This outcome of this series will be decided in two places: in front of the net and along the boards, and the Capitals are built to win those battles. The grinding effect of Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward and Alex Ovechkin hitting the Rangers defensemen will also be a factor. The Rangers are quicker than the Capitals, but only slightly. The Capitals, however, are a much more physical team.

Washington Will Win If...the Power Play Delivers

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Not to beat this point into the ground, but the Capitals had just 13 power plays in seven games against the Islanders. That had nothing to do with the opponents' discipline and everything to do with the standard of officiating in that series, something that can be predicted from one round to the next.

If the Capitals earn three to four power plays per game and convert at somewhere around 18 percent or better, that should be enough. This isn't a team like the ones of the past that desperately needed the power play to win; Washington uses it more as a supplement now, so 18 percent feels like the right number for beating the Rangers.

New York Will Win If...the Stars Come Through

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The Rangers scored 11 goals in five games against a team that was regularly icing Ian Cole, Taylor Chorney and Ben Lovejoy. It was good enough to beat the Penguins because Henrik Lundqvist was on top of his game, but more will be required to beat a more formidable opponent.

It seems silly to worry about Lundqvist, so let's worry about Rick Nash and Martin St. Louis. With Mats Zuccarello probably missing this series, the Rangers will need more offense from the top six, as the bottom six will be weakened with St. Louis moving up from the third line. The Rangers will need a big series from their big scorers to advance.

Prediction

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The Capitals are the better five-on-five team, with the bigger players and the better power play. Everything says the Capitals will win this series, but the Rangers have found ways to win all season despite being underwhelming in every underlying metric. As long as Lundqvist is in net, he can wash away those issues.

But logic says to take the Capitals in this series, so that's what we will do.

Prediction: Capitals in six games