Flames vs. Ducks: Preview and Prediction for the 2015 NHL Playoffs Matchup

The Anaheim Ducks, who finished atop the Western Conference in 2014-15, will host the underdog Calgary Flames when the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs gets underway later this week.

After a second-round loss to the eventual champion Los Angeles Kings last season, the Ducks retooled their team with the playoffs in mind. So far, the formula has been a success. Anaheim needed three late-game surges but successfully dispatched the Winnipeg Jets in four straight games.

Like the Jets, the Flames are another big-hearted Canadian club that wasn't expected to be around this late in the season. The Flames refused to be derailed by an injury to their captain, Mark Giordano, and used an old-school, defensively tight playing style to get past the Vancouver Canucks in six games. The series win was Calgary's first since the team reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2004.

The Flames and Ducks have met just once before in the playoffs—a seven-game win for Anaheim in 2006.

Here's a look at how the Pacific Division series breaks down.

Regular-Season Recap

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Anaheim Ducks

Though their overall performance dipped slightly in the 2014-15 regular season, the Anaheim Ducks captured their second consecutive Western Conference title. The Ducks' 109 points were seven fewer than the previous season and tied with the St. Louis Blues. The Ducks got the top seed thanks to a one-game edge in regulation and overtime wins.

The Ducks' calling card this season was their "refuse to lose" mentality. Anaheim was 30-0-2 in the regular season when leading after two periods and led the NHL with a .343 winning percentage (12-23-0) when they trailed going into the final frame.

For the third consecutive season, center Ryan Getzlaf led the Ducks in scoring, while new addition Ryan Kesler provided support up the middle in a secondary role.

Anaheim's goaltending situation was murky during the regular season, as both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson missed time with injuries. Andersen recorded 35 wins, but his personal statistics dropped off after his stellar rookie season.

Calgary Flames

After finishing 27th overall in 2013-14, the Calgary Flames started hot in 2014-15 and rode their momentum all the way into the playoffs.

Anchored by a take-charge blue line led by captain Mark Giordano, Calgary also established a reputation for third-period comebacks, earning 24 points in the season from a 10-24-4 record when trailing after two periods.

The Flames sat just outside the playoff picture when Giordano suffered a season-ending biceps injury in late February, but a strong late-season surge saw Calgary steal the third playoff spot in the Pacific Division from the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings.

Up front, Calgary generated offense from a dynamic first line composed of sophomore center Sean Monahan, veteran winger Jiri Hudler and exciting rookie Johnny Gaudreau. Defensemen T.J. Brodie, Dennis Wideman and Kris Russell all stepped up their games after Giordano was injured.

Key Storylines

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Can the Ducks Break Through?

Though the Ducks finished the regular season 12 points ahead of Calgary and looked unbeatable in their first-round series against Winnipeg, Anaheim hasn't progressed past the second round of the playoffs since winning the Stanley Cup in 2007. Last season, the Ducks took a 3-2 lead on Los Angeles before ultimately falling at home in seven games.

Now in his eighth season as an NHL head coach and his fourth with Anaheim, head coach Bruce Boudreau has never been past the second round. 

The Ducks' personnel changes last summer, such as acquiring Kesler, were made with the goal of finally breaking through to the final rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs. With their rivals from Los Angeles and San Jose already out of the way, is this the year that the Ducks reach the Western Conference Final and challenge for the big prize?

Will the Flames Continue to Defy Advanced-Stat Odds?

The Calgary Flames' possession stats show they have no right to have been so successful this season. 

In the regular season, Calgary finished 28th overall in what NHL.com calls "SAT"—more commonly known as Corsi plus/minus. The Flames attempted 839 fewer shots than their opponents in the regular season, finishing ahead of only the Colorado Avalanche and Buffalo Sabres.

In their first-round series against the Vancouver Canucks, the Flames also defied the fancy-stat odds. Their SAT differential of minus-54 was 15th out of 16 teams, but they're in good company with another second-round team, the Minnesota Wild, who are below them (minus-73).

Sean McIndoe broke it down for Grantland back in March, offering an explanation that's tough to swallow in today's analytics-based sports culture: "The Flames and their fans are...convinced that Calgary is winning hockey games the old-fashioned way: with grit, character, hard work and team toughness. The Flames may not have the talent, but they win anyway, because most nights they just plain want it more than the other guys do."

Can that approach fly against the determined Ducks?

Which Team Will Get the Upper Hand in the Third Period?

Both the Flames and Ducks continued their pattern of late-game comebacks in their first-round playoff series. Calgary won Game 1 and Game 6 against Vancouver when trailing after two periods, while the Ducks came from behind three times in four games to sweep the Winnipeg Jets.

The Ducks hold a slight edge in their ability to steal games. According to Mark Spector of Sportsnet, Anaheim set an NHL record by recording 18 wins in regular-season games after trailing at some point in the third period.

Players to Watch

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Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks

After a rough regular season that included a 10-game absence due to a knee injury and a nasty bout of the mumps, Corey Perry's first-round performance against Winnipeg would seem to indicate that the talented right-winger is feeling 100 percent at just the right time of year.

Perry exploded into the playoffs with a four-point performance in Game 1 and leads all Anaheim players with seven points after the first round. If he's feeling his oats, expect Perry to be tough for the Flames to corral in Round 2.

Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks

Acquired with the playoffs in mind, Ryan Kesler has not disappointed the fans in Anaheim.

Kesler stood in against the Jets' physical playing style, leading the Ducks with eight penalty minutes in the first round. He also revved up his play once the series shifted to the hostile confines of Winnipeg's MTS Centre, scoring four of his five points on the road, including two third-period goals to end the Jets' season in Game 4.

Known for his defensive play as much as his scoring, the 2011 Selke Trophy winner also boasts the playoffs' second-best faceoff percentage to date, winning 63.3 percent of his draws.

Micheal Ferland, Calgary Flames

Defenseman Kevin Bieksa deemed 23-year-old Micheal Ferland "pretty irrelevant" after his Vancouver Canucks dropped a 4-2 loss to Calgary in Game 3 at the Scotiabank Saddledome, per Mark Spector of Sportsnet. By the series' end, Ferland had proved to be one of the key contributors to the Flames' upset win.

The bruising rookie tallied two goals, two assists and was a plus-five in the series on a line with David Jones and Matt Stajan that gave the Canucks trouble throughout the series. He also made headlines with his 40 hits—second only to the New York Islanders' Matt Martin in the playoffs, with many of the bone-crunching, highlight-reel variety.

Ferland also comes with a defying-the-odds backstory: He's a fifth-round draft pick from Swan River, Manitoba (population: 3,907), who was in rehab just a year ago and has now been sober for 13 months, per Aaron Vickers of NHL.com.

With nothing to lose, expect Ferland to introduce himself to the Ducks early and often in Round 2.

Goaltender Breakdown

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Frederik Andersen, Anaheim Ducks

Frederik Andersen's emergence as a top-level rookie goaltender last season in Anaheim spelled the end of the road for veteran Jonas Hiller, who went on to sign as a free agent with the Flames after seven seasons in the O.C.

Andersen's regular-season numbers weren't quite as strong in 2014-15 as they were in his rookie year, but his performance against the Jets in the first round was rock solid. He played every minute of a series the Ducks led for just 38 minutes and 26 seconds—out of 245 minutes and 12 seconds—through four games against the Jets, making big saves as needed while his forwards mounted their comebacks.

Andersen's 2.20 goals-against average and .924 save percentage in the first round are improvements on both his 2014-15 regular-season numbers (2.38 and .914) and his playoff performance from last season, in which he tallied marks of 3.10 and .899 before suffering an injury in Game 3 of the Ducks' second-round series against the Los Angeles Kings.

Jonas Hiller, Calgary Flames

After a strong series against the Canucks in Round 1, Hiller now gets the opportunity to face the team that cast him aside in favor of Andersen at the end of last season. Do you think he'll be motivated?

Hiller boasts the same goals-against average as Andersen after the first round—2.20—to go along with an even better .931 save percentage. He was pulled in Game 6 against Vancouver after allowing two goals on three shots and was also relieved in the third period of Calgary's Game 2 loss.

After splitting duties with Karri Ramo for much of the regular season, head coach Bob Hartley has already promised that Hiller will get the nod for Game 1 at the Honda Center, per NHL.com.

Biggest Mismatch: Defensive Depth

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Without the injured Mark Giordano, the bulk of the work on the Flames' defense has been assumed by four defensemen—Dennis Wideman, T.J. Brodie, Kris Russell and Deryk Engelland.

Each is averaging more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, with Brodie leading the way at 27:10. Bob Hartley used depth defenders David Schlemko, Tyler Wotherspoon and Corey Potter sparingly against Vancouver. Rookie Wotherspoon saw just 3:16 of action in Game 6.

By contrast, Anaheim has three solid pairs who have shared ice time almost equally in the first round. Their top minutes man is Francois Beauchemin at 23:34, while both Clayton Stoner and Simon Despres—the third pair—are contributing just over 18 minutes a game (18:09 and 18:07, respectively).

Also waiting in the wings for Anaheim is trade-deadline acquisition James Wisniewski, who has been a healthy scratch for all four games after being one of the top defensemen for the Columbus Blue Jackets last season.

The rested Ducks will reap the rewards of their balanced defensive approach in the later stages of the series.

The Ducks Will Win If They...

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...capitalize on rest and not rust. 

The Ducks finished off their series against the Jets on April 22, so they'll have been off for more than a week before they finally get down to business against Calgary. The Flames will be coming into the series with two more games played, three days' fewer rest and absolutely nothing to lose.

Extra rest to heal the injuries and scout the opposition should help Anaheim's preparation, but if the Ducks don't start strong against Calgary, they might find themselves in an early hole with a need to start digging.

The Flames Will Win If They...

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...play with abandon. 

After ousting the Los Angeles Kings from the playoff picture and finishing just four points behind the Canucks, the Flames were considered worthy rivals against Vancouver (even if I did pick the Canucks in seven).

The talent gap between the Ducks and Flames is much larger, so Calgary is going to need a little luck and a whole lot of chutzpah if it hopes to challenge the Ducks for a spot in the Western Conference Final.

Hiller will need to come up big against Anaheim's scorers. Ferland and Brandon Bollig will need to use their bodies to muscle up against the heavy Ducks team. The Flames will need to show that their late-game determination outshines that of their counterparts.

Prediction: Ducks in 7

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Calgary was 2-3-0 against Anaheim this year and hasn't won at the Honda Center in nearly a decade. The Flames' last win came during the 2006 playoffs—a series in which Anaheim ultimately prevailed in seven games.

The Flames will provide tough competition at the Saddledome, but they'll have a tough time getting the better of an experienced, deep Anaheim team down in California.

Calgary will put up a harder fight than you'd expect, but the fairy-tale run will come to an end at the Honda Center in a nail-biter.