NFL Mock Draft 2015: Ideal Projections for High-Ceiling Prospects

The two most common terms that get thrown around during the NFL draft are "floor" and "ceiling." They represent what a player is likely to be at his worst (floor) and a perfect-world scenario (ceiling). 

An ideal draft class will feature a strong blend of high-floor and high-ceiling talent. It's not easy to pull off, though floor is easier to find because it's not dependent on everything going right in the development process. 

All 32 teams have many great coaches working with players trying to help them reach their eventual ceiling, but so many things have to go right from the player's natural talent and work ethic with the ability to make adjustments. 

A perfect example of a high-ceiling player is San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. We've all seen what he can be at his absolute best, but for whatever reason he's never been able to maintain that level over the course of an entire season. 

With this year's draft just days away, the high-ceiling players have been defined. In our latest mock projection, those athletes are highlighted after the picks. Picks are also based on team needs and player strength, as not every club is going to take the highest-ceiling player on the board when their turn comes up. 

Pos.	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
6	New York Jets	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, LB, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
13	New Orleans Saints	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
14	Miami Dolphins	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
17	San Diego Chargers	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
26	Baltimore Ravens	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
27	Dallas Cowboys	Bud Dupree, LB, Kentucky
28	Denver Broncos	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
29	Indianapolis Colts	Eli Harold, LB, Virginia
30	Green Bay Packers	Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
31	New Orleans Saints (Acquired from Seattle)	Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
32	New England Patriots	Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

Kevin White, WR (No. 4 to Oakland Raiders)

Thanks to a stellar workout at the scouting combine, Kevin White became a favorite wide receiver for most fans and analysts. It's hard not to love an athletic 6'3", 215-pound wideout who runs a 4.35 40-yard dash. 

Yet in the debate between White and Amari Cooper, the Alabama product is the safer bet to be a star in the NFL because he had three years of production in college and is as good a route-runner as there is in the draft. He also tested well with a 3.98-second 20-yard shuttle and 4.42 40-yard dash. 

NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said in a pre-combine interview with reporters, via Natalie Pierre of AL.com, that he preferred White to Cooper because the ceiling is higher:

"

My number one wide receiver is Kevin White from West Virginia. I think I know what Amari Cooper is, what a great football player he is. But I have Kevin White above him because I think he's got a higher ceiling. I think his potential is greater. He's 6-foot-3, 219 pounds, but I want to know what he runs. I have all over my notes that he's a 4.5-flat guy (in the 40-yard dash).

"

After White ran the 40 as fast as he did, it seemed to validate Mayock's ranking. The only problem for the West Virginia star right now is some sloppiness in his route running, which can be exploited by NFL cornerbacks. 

Based on White's scouting reports, like this one via Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, he's a perfect fit for the Raiders. The organization has traditionally favored pure speed receivers—hello, Darrius Heyward-Bey—who don't test well. 

White checks off the speed box on the check list to go along with size and ability to make plays in traffic that will play well in the NFL. He will also give Derek Carr a massive talent upgrade at wide receiver. The Raiders were so desperate for help at the position, they gave Michael Crabtree a one-year deal. 

Adding White to that offense will open up a dimension this offense hasn't had in a long time. Unlike the Heyward-Bey pick at No. 7 in 2009, White would not be a reach at No. 4 and fills a huge area of need for the franchise. 

Todd Gurley, RB (No. 9 to New York Giants)

John Bazemore/Associated Press

The thought that running backs don't belong in the first round isn't unfair, unless there is a true game-changing talent capable of carrying an offense on his back. 

Todd Gurley was on his way to becoming a guaranteed top-10 to -15 pick before tearing his ACL in November. That injury, combined with the way running backs have been dropped down drafts in recent years, seemed to spell the end of his chances to be a top-32 pick. 

A funny thing has happened in the draft process: Gurley is rapidly ascending. Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports noted on Twitter the former Bulldogs star is projected in the back half of the top 10:

Gurley's knee rehab is reportedly going well, as NFL Network's Albert Breer noted on Twitter he could be able to take part in training camp:

With the green light seeming to come on for Gurley not long after he gets drafted, the New York Giants scream out for him at No. 9. There's an argument to be made for teams like the Jets (No. 6) and Falcons (No. 8). 

But in terms of draft value and team need, it's hard not to like the Giants. Put him in the backfield with Eli Manning, who threw for 4,410 yards and 30 touchdowns in a bad 2014 season, and receivers like Odell Beckham and Rueben Randle, and suddenly this is one of the most dangerous and explosive offenses in the league. 

There's a mountain of risk with Gurley. His knee could move the wrong way during a workout that sets his rehab back. He missed three games in 2013 and seven in 2014 (four due to an NCAA suspension), so durability hasn't been an asset. 

Yet there comes a point when teams have to reconcile any injury concerns with the fact that Gurley averaged more than six yards per carry in each of his three college seasons playing against SEC defenses. 

Arik Armstead, DE (No. 15 to San Francisco)

If White and Gurley are two high-ceiling stars where there's little doubt about them reaching that potential, Arik Armstead is a guy climbing a much steeper mountain. 

In a draft heavy with a lot of undersized pass-rushers, Armstead stands out because he meets the traditional measurement checklist. The Oregon star is 6'7", 292 pounds and oozing athleticism, as evidenced by making the Ducks basketball team in his first two college seasons before focusing full-time on football. 

Rob Rang of CBS Sports offered this scouting report about Armstead's strengths as a football player and draft prospect:

"

Imposing frame with plenty of room for additional muscle mass. Broad shoulders and long limbs with good overall weight distribution throughout. Good functional strength to jolt would-be blockers and shed. Uses height advantage to locate the football quickly. Light on his feet for a man of his size. Asked to drop into coverage, showing surprising balance and coordination. Can spin free from blocks and shows a late burst to close on the ball. May be just scratching the surface of his potential.

"

The problem for Armstead is the results in college never matched the talent everyone is talking about. He had 10.5 tackles for loss and four sacks in three seasons at Oregon. 

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

On the positive side, Armstead's production did increase every year, going from two tackles for loss and one half-sack in 2012 to 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks last year. But these aren't dominating stats for a player with his size and freakish athleticism. 

One scout told Mark Eckel of NJ.com that the disparity between what Armstead looks like and how he plays are vastly different:

"

Talented and big as hell. He's the one guy I've had a hard time grading. You watch him and you see the talent of a first-round pick. But then he plays like a fourth-round pick. ...You know who he reminds of, Chris Canty. He's that kind of player. I don't think he'll ever be a big sack number guy, but he'll play well for you.

"

Teams have egos all over the place from the coaching staff to front office, so they believe their talents will be able to bring out the best in a young player. 

One of the best fits for Armstead in terms of his development and team need is San Francisco. The 49ers are still waiting to hear what Justin Smith will do in 2015, but they added Darnell Dockett to the defensive line mix. 

Dockett's presence allows the 49ers to develop Armstead slowly in 2015 before throwing him into the fire in 2016. It may also help Armstead that San Francisco head coach Jim Tomsula used to be the team's defensive line coach. 

Tomsula will want to bring in guys that can fit into his idea of what the 49ers should be. Armstead is the kind of athlete whose raw tools a coach looks at and believes he can find that spark to make them play every Sunday. 

Measurables via NFL.com unless otherwise noted