10 MLB Players Who Were Hyped Too Early for 2015
If baseball is America's favorite pastime, our second-favorite pastime might be predicting which players are going to be breakout stars in a new season.
Sometimes, we're right on the money with our predictions. But other times...well, other times it seems we might have spoken too soon.
If you want an example of how the latter can happen, here's some good news: I have 10 of them.
Ahead of you is a countdown of 10 perceived breakout players who aren't living up to the hype early in 2015. There are a lot more than 10 such players out there, of course, but this list will focus on guys who were (1) arguably undeserving of the hype to begin with and (2) have accumulated enough playing time in the season's first month to prove as much.
Rather than proceed in order of which players have been the biggest busts, we'll go in order of which players came into the season with the most hype. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
10. Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
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Jurickson Profar once looked like Texas' second baseman of the future—partially because of Elvis Andrus' entrenchment at shortstop—but that title passed to Rougned Odor in 2014.
Odor suddenly emerged as a consensus top prospect before the season and went on to show flashes of greatness in a 114-game sample size in the majors. As a result, he came into 2015 with plenty of fans, including former Colorado Rockies general manager-turned-MLB.com columnist Dan O'Dowd.
But Odor's breakout isn't going so well. He entered Friday hitting just .140 with a .543 OPS and was also rating as a below-average defender. All told, he's been one of the MLB's worst second basemen.
This should feel like a surprise...but it really doesn't.
Though Odor showed flashes of greatness in 2014, they were only flashes. He hit .259 with a .698 OPS and also rated as a well-below-average defender with minus-11 defensive runs saved.
One problem was that Odor had too much of an all-or-nothing batted ball profile, with too many ground balls and fly balls and not enough line drives. He hasn't fixed that problem in 2015 and is also swinging through more pitches.
Odor could be good one day. But for now, he's fodder for the ol' "needs more seasoning" file.
9. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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If you're a fan of breakout player predictions, then you've been told about Brett Lawrie's potential before.
The 25-year-old third baseman was a top-50 prospect as recently as 2011, and he has been showing up on breakout lists every year since then. Sporting News and Sports Illustrated kept up the tradition this year, and even the Steamer projection system was high on his outlook for 2015.
There's just one problem: Lawrie is just not that good at playing baseball.
After batting .261 with a .721 OPS between 2012 and 2014 with the Toronto Blue Jays, Lawrie entered Friday hitting just .231 with a .583 OPS in his first season with the Oakland A's. All sorts of shortcomings contributed to his modest production in Toronto, and these have gotten worse.
Lawrie is working on a 32.4 percent strikeout rate, which will happen when your chase rate is over 40 percent. He also has his usual all-or-nothing batted ball profile. That's a product of his swing having too many moving parts, making it difficult for him to square the ball up.
Lawrie's one redeeming quality is that he's at least decent on defense. But with his offensive woes, he needs to be a lot more than decent to qualify as a capable everyday player.
8. Avisail Garcia, RF, Chicago White Sox
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Avisail Garcia is also no stranger to breakout lists. You're going to end up on those when you're being compared to Miguel Cabrera right out of the gate, and 2015 was just the latest stop on the line.
While much of the focus concerning the Chicago White Sox coming into the season was their new additions, Garcia was also being hyped. He arrived to spring training as a member of the "best shape of his life" club, and CBS Chicago and Sporting News were eyeing him as a breakout candidate.
Admittedly, this sounded like a bit much for a guy with a .272 average and a modest .722 OPS in parts of three seasons. Several weeks into 2015, it still sounds like too much.
Garcia is off to a slow start with a .264 average and a .693 OPS through Thursday's action and may be a long shot to get better. He came into the year with concerning tendencies to chase outside the zone and hit way too many ground balls. Rather than getting better, both of these tendencies have gotten worse.
There's no question that Garcia has talent. But as per usual, translating that talent into production is proving to be difficult for him.
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7. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
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There's no arguing this much: Kevin Gausman definitely has the makings of a future ace.
Gausman was drafted fourth overall back in 2012, and his mid-to-high 90s heater and devastating splitter have allowed him to dominate on occasion at both the minor and major league levels. After posting a respectable 3.57 ERA in 20 starts in 2014, it's no wonder major outlets like Sporting News and ESPN.com picked him as a big breakout candidate for 2015.
But Gausman's quest to live up to the hype sputtered before it could really get going, as a lousy spring performance (7.04 ERA) put him in Baltimore's bullpen rather than in its starting rotation. Since then, he entered Friday with a 5.40 ERA in six regular-season appearances.
The gas is still there, as Gausman is averaging 96.0 mph with his fastball. But Baseball Savant can vouch that his fastball command is still all over the place. As a result, he's struggling to get ahead of hitters and, as Brooks Baseball can show, putting them away with his fastball.
An age-old cliche applies: Gausman can throw, but he still needs to learn how to pitch.
6. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners
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As recently as last spring, Taijuan Walker was arguably MLB's best pitching prospect. And though he struggled in 2014, he seemed to figure out everything in spring training.
In seven spring starts, Walker authored a 0.67 ERA with 26 strikeouts and five walks in 27 innings. That performance had many buying in for 2015, including the typically skeptical Keith Law of ESPN.com and some know-it-all who writes for Bleacher Report.
Shows what we know.
Even after a strong third start, Walker's numbers through three outings in 2015 are still terrible. He has a 10.66 ERA and has walked 10 with only 14 strikeouts in 12.2 innings.
This performance doesn't look too out of place next to the 4.39 ERA that Walker posted in the minors last year, and the problems that have led to it are real. He has filthy stuff, but his command of it comes and goes. That's not just for his fastball command but maybe double for his command of his secondaries. If they're not outside the zone, they're right down the middle of it.
All this puts Walker in the same boat as Gausman: He still needs to learn how to pitch.
5. Mike Fiers, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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The biggest headlines Mike Fiers made in 2014 had to do with his beaning of Giancarlo Stanton in September, which was a shame, because that incident masked a dominant performance.
Only 10 of Fiers' 14 appearances were starts, but they all came in one bunch and were downright excellent. In 64.2 innings down the stretch, he posted a 2.09 ERA with a ratio of 71 strikeouts to 14 walks. This stretch landed him on all sorts of breakout lists, including at MLB.com and Grantland.
Suffice it to say these lists weren't expecting Fiers to have a 6.75 ERA through his first three starts.
What's killed Fiers so far is the same thing that worked wonders for him in 2014: his fastball. Per Brooks Baseball, hitters have gone from batting .127 with a .255 slugging percentage against it to batting .333 with a .700 slugging percentage against it. This is despite the fact he's not really doing anything different with his location.
Rather, this may be a reminder that fastballs that only move at around 89 miles per hour are going to be hittable more often than not. The first three seasons of Fiers' career could have vouched for that. So far, this one is too.
4. Didi Gregorius, SS, New York Yankees
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Whoever took over for Derek Jeter as shortstop of the New York Yankees was going to be subject to immense scrutiny. That ended up being Didi Gregorius. And for a time, things were good.
Though Gregorius didn't come to New York with a great track record, his outlook for 2015 soon began to lean positive. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wrote about how Gregorius was impressing everyone at Yankees camp, including a big-name former shortstop who fell in love with his defense.
"He has a rare combination of speed and explosiveness," said Alex Rodriguez. "But what you don’t see is an incredibly strong arm that is so accurate. That combination is lethal."
However, Gregorius has responded to these good vibes with a decidedly "pluh" start to his season. He entered Friday hitting just .200 with a .482 OPS in his first 14 games, and the defensive metrics were frowning on him.
If one didn't know any better, one would conclude that Gregorius hasn't changed. He was only a .241 hitter with a .682 OPS with Arizona, and the metrics being down on his defense is nothing new.
That's no accident, as anyone who's watched Gregorius closely these last few weeks has seen how he lacks the baseball IQ to back up his tools. If you haven't, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post can fill you in.
The Yankees weren't wrong to want to take a chance on Gregorius. But if they're still hoping he can be a worthy successor to Jeter, they might want to tone those hopes down a bit.
3. Daniel Norris, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Daniel Norris became something of a media darling this spring, because people just can't get enough of eccentric players who live by their own rules (also in vans).
But Norris also became a major breakout candidate, and understandably so. He followed a dominant season in the minors in 2014 by racking up a 2.93 ERA in seven spring starts and winning a spot in Toronto's rotation. This earned him looks as an American League Rookie of the Year favorite, and the aforementioned B/R know-it-all even tabbed him as the man to beat for the award.
But so far, so not good for Norris. He has a 6.75 ERA in three starts and has struggled missing bats (6.7 K/9) and limiting walks (4.7 BB/9). John Lott of the National Post reports that Norris is chalking this up to a "dead arm phase," but this could be more than just a phase.
The control problems Norris is experiencing hearken back to the 4.6 walks per nine innings he posted in the minors in 2013, and it may be tough to get over them. He has a funky delivery that he's having trouble repeating, and it's leading to both walks and hard hits. The latter will happen when you're up with everything you throw.
Unlike Gausman and Walker, it's unfair to call Norris a thrower who needs to learn how to pitch. He's more like a pitcher who needs to master consistency.
2. Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
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Norris wasn't the only Blue Jays rookie who came into 2015 with big expectations. Aaron Sanchez came into the year with arguably bigger hype.
This is partially because of how he dominated to the tune of a 1.09 ERA as a reliever in 2014. But he also has the more electric arm of the two. All this had many thinking that Sanchez would also be a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2015, regardless of whether he opened the year as a closer or a starter.
Well, Sanchez ended up in Toronto's rotation, and so far he's done nothing to prove that's where he belongs. He has a 5.14 ERA in three starts that actually undersells how bad he's been. In 14 innings, he's walked 12, struck out only nine and allowed three home runs.
Despite Sanchez's immense talent, none of this is too surprising. He had a history of control problems in the minors, and that problem has re-emerged and gotten even worse. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs noted, only 22 percent of Sanchez's pitches have occurred with him ahead in the count.
Sanchez has also demonstrated why it's so necessary to change speeds. He may be averaging 94.4 mph with his fastball, but he's also thrown it 80.7 percent of the time. Since hitters can time fastballs, it's no wonder his swinging-strike rate is a meager 4.7 percent.
Never mind a thrower who needs to learn how to pitch. Sanchez is the ultimate thrower who needs to learn how to pitch.
1. Mookie Betts, CF, Boston Red Sox
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In a 2014 season where little went right for the Boston Red Sox, Mookie Betts was easily the biggest bright spot. His rapid rise through the system eventually ended with a major league cameo that included a .291 average and .812 OPS in 52 games.
Boy did this get people excited. As Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported, the Red Sox saw Betts as a future Andrew McCutchen. Most everyone else saw him as a big-time breakout candidate. Maybe even the biggest of them all, according to that B/R know-it-all.
In the wake of all this, Betts has actually done well. He's been a regular on highlight reels, thanks to his excellent defense in center field. He also has five stolen bases, tying for the American League lead.
Hitting-wise, however, Betts has struggled. He's hitting under .200 in his first 15 games with just a .594 OPS. Not so coincidentally, the impressive discipline and bat-to-ball skills he showed in 2014 have become less impressive.
Opposing pitchers can take the credit for this. Per Baseball Savant, it seems they noticed how much Betts dominated pitches he could turn on in 2014, and they have taken to pounding him away. That's working like a charm.
Betts has been too good on defense and on the basepaths to be called a bust. But he's not going to be an all-around force until he shows he has an ability to adjust.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked and are current through play on Thursday, April 23.
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