NFL Mock Draft 2015: 1st-Round Projections for Late-Rising Prospects

In the final days before 256 lives get changed forever starting on Thursday, the 2015 NFL draft is still a mystery. Whether it's due to issues on or off the field, a lot of things appear to be in a state of flux near the top of the draft. 

Even teams that have set their big board should always be flexible if something causes a player to drop they weren't expecting to be around when they pick. And it will happen because it does every year. 

The names of first-round players may feel secure, though no one can say with absolute certainty which order they will go. The only team that may know with 100 percent accuracy which direction it's taking is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 1. 

Beyond that, once you start factoring in trades for teams that have become enamored with players they need to move up to get, the drama taking place over three days in Chicago, starting on April 30, will be intense. 

Here's how things appear like they will shake out during Thursday's first round as well as a look at what to expect from some of the late-rising stars who will hear their name called in the first 32 picks. 

Pos.	Team	Pick
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
6	New York Jets	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, LB, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
12	Cleveland Browns	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
13	New Orleans Saints	Randy Gregory, LB, Nebraska
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	Alvin Dupree, LB, Kentucky
17	San Diego Chargers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Forida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
27	Dallas Cowboys	Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
28	Denver Broncos	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
29	Indianapolis Colts	Eli Harold, LB, Virginia
30	Green Bay Packers	Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
31	New Orleans Saints (Acquired from Seattle)	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
32	New England Patriots	Vic Beasley, LB, Clemson

Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Sometimes, it pays to be a physical freak in the NFL. Breshad Perriman is finding that out as the draft process moves closer to its end. 

The Central Florida standout went from being largely off the radar when draft season started to a possible top-15 pick if the board breaks right. For instance, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. put Perriman at No. 10 in his fourth mock draft after not having him in the first one that ran in January. 

It's telling in a deep wide receiver class that Perriman is so highly regarded, so clearly NFL evaluators view him as a potential star. Yet B/R's Dan Pompei noted the UCF standout has become one of those workout warriors after not looking great in college:

Despite that risk, Perriman has two ingredients you can't teach. He's got the perfect wide receiver physique at 6'2" and 212 pounds and ran a sub-4.3 40-yard dash. 

The people running an NFL team have egos, which is both good and bad. It's good because you can't be weak-willed when having to cut players and restructure contracts every year, but it's bad because all these people think they can turn raw pieces into filet mignon. 

According to Geoff Mosher of Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia, Kiper, who loves Perriman as much as any analyst, said in a predraft conference call that Perriman had lazy drops in college:

Hands are kind of a big deal when trying to catch a ball. Perhaps Perriman was just bored in college and will show enhanced focus at the professional level. Sometimes the bright lights help bring out the best in a player. 

Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Unlike Perriman, whose raw athleticism has carried him into the first-round mix, Nelson Agholor's rise has risen at a more deliberate pace. The USC star isn't a physical wonder at 6'0" and 198 pounds, but his overall football acumen is vastly superior to Perriman's. 

B/R's Matt Miller had Agholor ranked 41st on his draft big board in a recent scouting notebook, but he got this enlightening quote from another team's scout: "I just hope he doesn't go to the Patriots. He'd be so great there."

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote Agholor's defining traits are routes and the ability to overpower defensive backs:

"

Runs a good route and competes hard on every snap. Able to drive defender into a poor leverage position. Bouncy, quick feet for burst out of breaks. Adequate separation quickness and twitch. Understands his position. Will improvise to get open for scrambling quarterback. Highly instinctive in space with consistent feel for working his way to open spaces as a presentable, ready target. Almost always works his way back to the throw when needed. Natural hands. Has snatch-and-run readiness after the catch with initial quickness to make things happen.

"

The problem for Agholor is his ceiling, which is why he will likely go at least 10-15 picks behind Perriman. It's easy to dream on a player who runs a sub-4.3 40 at 6'2" and 212 pounds but harder with a shorter wide receiver who runs in the 4.4 range. 

Yet if someone were to tell you that Agholor will be better as a rookie and probably have the better overall career, that shouldn't be a surprise despite where each one might get taken in the draft. Ceiling is often worth the gamble, but there's something to be said for a player whose floor is high. 

Alvin Dupree, LB, Kentucky

This draft is deep with pass-rushers, which is good because teams are always looking for help getting after the quarterback. Alvin Dupree is one of those late-rising edge-rushers teams covet because of his natural athleticism, though refinement isn't part of his game at this point. 

Garrett Downing of Ravens.com made a list of pros and cons for Dupree as he comes into the NFL with the cons ringing louder than the positives:

Here are two examples listed by Downing:

"Wins with athleticism of technique because his fundamentals aren’t quite refined yet; athleticism won’t necessarily carry him in the NFL like it did in college," Downing wrote. "... Some scouts believe that he hesitates at times, which can lead to him being slow into the backfield."

In many ways, Dupree is like the defensive version of Perriman. Athleticism isn't the worst thing to invest in with an edge-rusher, since speed can help a player run around an offensive lineman. 

There's also something to be said for a player who aces every predraft test, which Albert Breer of NFL.com pointed out has been the case for Dupree:

"

Dupree stood out in Indy by posting a 4.56 40 at 6-foot-4 and 269 pounds, but really, his work through the offseason gauntlet has been outstanding end-to-end. And that includes the interviews, during which clubs found this freak athlete to be a great kid. Because of his athleticism, makeup and on-field motor, teams feel like they can work with him, even if he's a little raw. So he's now in play in the top 10.

"

While I won't stuff Dupree in the top 10 yet, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him move ahead of other high-profile edge-rushers like Randy Gregory and Arik Armstead on April 30. There's nothing wrong with some rawness as long as the football intelligence is good and he plays hard on the field. 

Ignore that Dupree reportedly scored a 13 on the Wonderlic test. As much fun as it is to talk about that thing, it doesn't say much about how a player will do at the next level.

Johnny Manziel had the highest Wonderlic score among quarterbacks in last year's class. How'd that work out for him?

Dupree isn't a fully fleshed-out football player yet, but the pieces are in place for him to be a star in the NFL. Even if he doesn't get to that level, the raw talent makes him worthy of a top 15-20 pick on Thursday. 

Combine measurables via NFL.com