Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top Projected Trade Targets, Week 3
It's never too early to take a look at the production of potential MLB trade targets who could be on the move this summer.
Each year, contending teams use the trade deadline to better position themselves for the season's final months. On the other hand, plenty of organizations dangle attractive trade chips in hopes of enticing a team into sending back a talented package of prospects.
This season, many of the top trade targets come in the form of veteran hurlers. Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir all will be highly sought-after players as the trade deadline approaches. Meanwhile, Jason Grilli could be a huge upgrade for a contending team in need of bullpen help.
We'll take a look at those players and how their respective starts have impacted their value.
Here we go!
Jason Grilli
1 of 5
2015 Stats
6 IP, 6 SV, 1.50 ERA, 0.69 FIP, 15.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9
The Skinny
After the smoke cleared following the Craig Kimbrel trade, the Atlanta Braves turned to veteran Jason Grilli to take over the ninth-inning duties for the 2015 season.
Little did they know that the 38-year-old would be tied for the league lead with six saves through the season's first two weeks. Grilli was fantastic for the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2011-2013, but he posted a 4.00 ERA in 2014.
Grilli's velocity has returned to the mid-90s after normally sitting in the low 90s last season. Due to that jump, opponents are hitting just .077 against his heater as opposed to .289 a season ago.
The Verdict: Stock Up
Atlanta has enjoyed a fast start to the season, but it remains to be seen if the Braves can maintain that momentum for 162 games. Grilli was signed to a two-year, $8.2 million deal this winter. Under president of baseball operations John Hart, the Braves have committed to his rebuilding vision.
While Grilli is currently excelling as the club's closer, flipping him to a contender around the trade deadline makes sense even if Atlanta finds itself in the playoff picture.
Carlos Gonzalez
2 of 5
2015 Stats
.204/.231/.347, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 R
The Skinny
Carlos Gonzalez has remained healthy to begin the 2015 season, but the outfielder hasn't been as impressive as in years past.
It's an accomplishment in and of itself that Gonzalez has been able to stay on the field. The 29-year-old has played in over 130 games just twice in his career and has missed 144 games alone over the past two seasons.
Despite a history of injuries, Gonzalez is a tremendously talented offensive player. Bobby DeMuro of FanSided believes Gonzalez would warrant a quality return for the Colorado Rockies.
"None of them are CarGo quality, but when you consider what the Rockies might be able to get back in return for him in a potential trade, you could stomach a year or two of lesser-quality outfield play if it pays off with prospects that can help the Rockies actually build a contender," DeMuro said.
The Verdict: Stock Down
Gonzalez's slow start to 2015 might make him more expendable on Colorado's end, but it also diminishes the value of his potential return. Gonzalez has yet to flash the power numbers he totaled in 2013 and 2014, while still striking out at an alarming rate (17.3 percent strikeout rate so far this season).
His contract could also hinder a potential trade, as Gonzalez is owed $43 million over the next three seasons.
Scott Kazmir
3 of 5
2015 Stats
2-0, 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 10.18 K/9, 2.66 BB/9
The Skinny
After breaking into the league with the Tampa Bay Rays in the mid-2000s, Scott Kazmir has enjoyed a career resurgence with the Oakland A's.
Kazmir logged 190.1 innings and posted a 3.55 ERA in 2014. He's continued that good form in 2015, as the southpaw has allowed just three earned runs in 20.1 innings.
Despite that fantastic start, Kazmir's impending free agency makes him an interesting trade chip. The 31-year-old's two-year contract will run out after this season.
The Verdict: Stock Up
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden anticipates that Kazmir will be moved regardless of Oakland's place in the standings:
"Whether the A's are contending or not, I expect Kazmir to be traded. He's coming off the best year of his career (15-9 with a 3.55 ERA) and is off to a fast start this season, going 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA. He's a free agent at season's end, and the A's can't afford to sign him to a long-term contract, so I expect they'll trade him.
"
Kazmir is producing at the highest level of his career and could be a huge upgrade for a contender in need of starting pitching.
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Johnny Cueto
4 of 5
2015 Stats
0-2, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 1.93 FIP, 10.29 K/9, 1.29 BB/9
The Skinny
The Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto doesn't get the same recognition as some of his peers, but he's one of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball today. Cueto has posted four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00, including his 2.25 mark in 243.2 innings last season.
Cueto has only increased his value with a fantastic beginning to the 2015 campaign. He's allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings, while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.
The Verdict: Stock Up
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported that Cueto will be seeking a $200 million contract in free agency:
"The Reds were so convinced they had no chance to sign Johnny Cueto it isn't even certain they made an offer before the Opening Day deadline. Cueto is believed to be seeking $200 million, or thereabouts, no surprise since Max Scherzer is a fair comp. And what can Cincinnati say? They gave Homer Bailey, who's not half as good, $105 million on a long-term deal.
"
With every pitch, Cueto's price tag continues to skyrocket. He won't come cheap, but he will be one of the most frequently mentioned players around the trade deadline this summer.
Cole Hamels
5 of 5
2015 Stats
0-2, 18 IP, 5.00 ERA, 7.58 FIP, 9.00 K/9, 4.50 BB/9
The Skinny
Cole Hamels was at the forefront of plenty of trade discussions this winter, but the Philadelphia Phillies were hesitant to pull the trigger on a potential blockbuster involving their ace.
But Hamels' value has taken a slight hit due to a rough start to the 2015 season. The left-hander has given up 10 earned runs in his 18 innings of work, and his 7.58 FIP ranks last among all major league starters.
What's more alarming is the number of homers Hamels has surrendered. The 31-year-old has allowed seven long balls, which is the most among MLB hurlers.
The Verdict: Stock Down
Hamels has consistently delivered quality production throughout his career, so a slow start in 2015 should be taken with a grain of salt. He's also under a team-friendly contract, which will see him be paid roughly $23 million per season through 2018.
Due to those facts, ESPN.com's Jim Bowden notes that the Phillies want "at least two elite prospects" in return for Hamels. However, his value will continue to dip with an extended slump into the middle months of 2015.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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