Nashville Predators Likely Won't Overcome Loss of Injured Defenseman Shea Weber

The Nashville Predators are trying to make a go of it in the first round of the Western Conference NHL playoffs against the Chicago Blackhawks without injured captain and former Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber. And hockey teams can overcome the loss of such star players. But usually only under two circumstances: only in the short term and only in the regular season.

Regular-season opponents of the suddenly short-handed team often fall into the trap of complacency. You know, it's a November night in Dallas and the Stars are without Tyler Seguin and/or Jamie Benn; just throw your sticks out on the ice and take the two points. That's when upsets happen, when the kid just called up from the minors is so excited to replace a Benn or a Seguin that they overachieve and help win a game. 

In the playoffs, winning without a top star is many orders of magnitude harder. The Colorado Avalanche won a Stanley Cup without Peter Forsberg (ruptured spleen) for the final two rounds of the 2001 playoffs, a great accomplishment against a star-studded New Jersey Devils team.

That Avs team, though, had some guys still on the roster with the names of Sakic, Roy, Bourque, Foote, Drury, Hejduk, Tanguay and Blake. It went seven games, but the Avs did it.

In the playoffs, nobody is going to take the night off, even when the opponent is short-handed. There are only seven possible games, not 82. Players know they have to be fully engaged, no matter what.

The Nashville Predators got a rotten taste of what it's like to play a tough playoff game on the road without their top player, not to mention another veteran gamer in alternate captain Mike Fisher. Without Weber in the lineup for Sunday's Game 3 at Chicago's United Center, the Preds defense was a mess in a 4-2 loss. 

If Weber can't make some kind of Bobby Baun-style comeback from his lower-body injury, it looks hopeless now for Nashville. 

Just one of many examples of why Nashville looked discombobulated without Weber happened in the second period, on Chicago's final goal of the game, by Brent Seabrook.

Weber's replacement in the lineup, Victor Bartley, who hadn't played yet in the series, made a major fundamental mistake in a key part of the game. As shown in this snapshot of the NBC game feed, Bartley roamed down from the top of the circle to the corner to try breaking up Andrew Shaw's control of the puck:

Adrian Dater, via NBC

Problem was, his defensive partner, Cody Franson, was already in that corner playing the puck. Two defensemen in the same corner is a big no-no. It leaves someone open elsewhere, and in this case, the puck was worked around behind the net to Jonathan Toews, who fed Seabrook near the top of the circle where Bartley should have stayed. As Bartley tried to scramble back in position, Seabrook beat Preds goalie Pekka Rinne for the key insurance goal.

Without Weber, Nashville was without his big, intimidating physical presence in the corners. Offensively, on the power play, the Preds were without his huge slap shot, which makes opponents with normally thick, sturdy legs morph into flamingos. Weber was among the league defensemen leaders in blocked shots (147) and hits (166), as John Glennon of The Tennessean noted.

Take away Weber, and you incalculably take away an opponent's fear factor.

Another thing that has to happen should a star position player go out: The goalie needs to stand on his head. Rinne, a probable finalist for the Vezina Trophy this season, couldn't even stand on one leg in this one. He just hasn't been good enough so far in this series, as Adam Vingan of The Tennessean pointed out after Seabrook's goal: 

"

Pekka Rinne's SV% in this series is .891. Keeping in mind there's only so much he can do, that's not a number you usually see from him.

— Adam Vingan (@AdamVingan) April 19, 2015"

The loss of Weber meant second-year D-man Seth Jones took his spot alongside partner Roman Josi, and Josi looked confused for much of the game as to how to adapt without him. Josi misread a couple of situations, backing off too much on odd-man situations instead of being more aggressive on the puck-carrier. That was especially the case on Brandon Saad's game-winner, at three minutes, 38 seconds in the second period.

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Jones and Josi each finished a minus-three. 

"I guess we've got to have a little better coverage in our D zone and just try to keep them away from our net and not let them go in the interior," Josi told Vingan after the game. "They've got a lot of skilled forwards. They're going to create chances. We've just got to make sure to limit them."

The Preds, however, are now 1-5-2 in full games Weber has missed the last two years. Prior to Game 3, Glennon laid out a scenario as to how the Preds could win without Weber:

"

Second-year defenseman Seth Jones probably will move up alongside Roman Josi in Weber’s absence, meaning Jones will see increased ice time and also inherit more five-on-five responsibilities.

Assuming Jones goes head-to-head more often with Chicago’s talented top six forwards, he’ll have to prove he can handle players such as Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa on a greater basis. On the offensive side of the rink, Jones should be a good complement for Josi, as both players can really skate.

"

Well, there's always Game 4. But without Weber, who isn't even in Chicago with the team because of his lower-body injury? Good luck with that.