NHL Playoff Bracket 2015: Complete 1st-Round Schedule and Series Predictions

Unlike in the NBA, where a seven-game series typically allows the better regular-season team to emerge victorious, the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs are as unpredictable as any team sporting event.  A team seeded sixth or worse has made the Final in three of the past five seasons, and with recent powerhouses like the Los Angeles Kings, Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins either limping into the postseason or missing out entirely, the championship field is as wide open as any in recent memory.

Apart from the Winnipeg Jets crossing over to the Pacific Division bracket to face the Anaheim Ducks, the first round will consist entirely of familiar division rivals, just as the NHL envisioned things after realignment last season.  With most matchups having already occurred four times during the regular season, we have a nice sample size to analyze each of the eight series.

Full first-round dates, times and TV information can be found via NHL.com, while the 16-team bracket sits below.  Making predictions for each series, let's highlight three of the closest matchups and dissect what factors could make the difference.

Series	Pick
Ottawa Senators (WC1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (A1)	Montreal in 7
Detroit Red Wings (A3) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (A2)	Tampa Bay in 5
Pittsburgh Penguins (WC2) vs. New York Rangers (M1)	NY Rangers in 6
New York Islanders (M3) vs. Washington Capitals (M2)	Washington in 6
Minnesota Wild (WC1) vs. St. Louis Blues (C1)	St. Louis in 7
Chicago Blackhawks (C3) vs. Nashville Predators (C2)	Chicago in 7
Winnipeg Jets (WC2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (P1)	Anaheim in 6
Calgary Flames (P3) vs. Vancouver Canucks (P2)	Vancouver in 7

Ottawa vs. Montreal

Graham Hughes/Associated Press

Having the hot goalie can be the greatest asset in a deep postseason run, but it's also tenuous to rely so much on one player.  It's not necessarily fair to characterize the Montreal Canadiens as the "Carey Price Show," but it's unlikely the Habs will go far without a standout performance from the presumptive Vezina winner.

Price has been the NHL's best goalie all year, leading the league in save percentage (.933) and goals-against average (1.96).  However, Montreal won't enjoy the huge edge in goal that it typically holds over most opponents, given the Cinderella surge of 27-year-old Ottawa goaltender Andrew Hammond.  The "Hamburglar" has posted a relatively anonymous career AHL line, but his numbers over 23 starts this year have actually exceed the season numbers posted by Price:

Both goaltenders should face tougher challenges than one might expect, given that neither team boasts a signature star forward.  But both Montreal and Ottawa have enviable depth to fall back on—the Habs have speed throughout their top nine, while five players scored at least 20 goals for the Senators this season.  Moreover, in P.K. Subban and Erik Karlsson, two of the game's most dangerous attacking defensemen will be on display.

In what figures to be a physical series, the depth performers will be critical on two similarly constructed teams.  Home ice and more experience give Montreal a slight edge, but this is more of a toss-up series than the regular-season records would indicate.

Chicago vs. Nashville

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Though Nashville has the home-ice advantage in this series, few would see the surprising Preds as favorites in this series.  The Blackhawks still have the core that has claimed two of the past five Stanley Cups, and they will receive a huge boost with the return of Patrick Kane from a broken clavicle that sidelined him through the end of the regular season:

Even if Kane is rusty, the Hawks rank well in statistical categories that have been predictive of postseason success.  According to CBS Sports' Adam Gretz, Chicago allowed the fewest goals against, ranked seventh in possession and had the 10th-best penalty kill, all of which averages out as the third best among postseason squads.  

However, Nashville actually had better possession numbers than the Blackhawks during the regular season, and it can reasonably expect top defensive pairing Shea Weber and Roman Josi to contain Chicago's top line of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Brandon Saad.  If Kane is slow out of the gates, the Hawks' forward depth doesn't appear nearly as formidable as it has been in past playoff runs.

Nevertheless, the metrics do point in the Hawks' favor; Hockey-Reference.com ranks Chicago as the league's fourth-best team in Simple Rating System (SRS), while the Preds sit eighth.  If 32-year-old goalie Pekka Rinne continues to fade for Nashville (.904 save percentage over final 16 regular-season games), Chicago could move on for a potential date against familiar playoff rival St. Louis.

Calgary vs. Vancouver

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

After both missed the postseason in 2014, the Canucks and Flames were surprise entrants from the Pacific Division after the demises of Los Angeles and San Jose.  However, while neither side excels on the metrics side—Vancouver and Calgary are the sixth- and seventh-best Western Conference playoff teams by SRS, respectively—both play gritty, blue-collar styles, which should make for entertaining hockey.

Indeed, likely Jack Adams winner and Calgary head coach Bob Hartley has extracted maximum results out of an overachieving Flames squad.  20-year-old Sean Monahan's rise has given Calgary a deadly top line alongside Jiri Hudler and Johnny Gaudreau, which has allowed the Flames to average 3.03 goals per game since the All-Star break.

The 34-year-old Sedin twins still power the Canucks engine, with Henrik and Daniel having scored 73 and 76 points, respectively, this season.  If Radim Vrbata gets to rejoin the Sedins on the first line, Vancouver could boast a top line as deadly as Calgary's.  Thus, the key to the series may be how Canucks backup Eddie Lack holds up in net, given that Ryan Miller still isn't ready to return from a February knee sprain:

Top lines often get muzzled in the postseason, as top defenders play extraordinarily heavy minutes, and Calgary is so dependent on the Monahan-Hudler-Gaudreau trio to produce goals.  Vancouver probably deserves the slight edge because of that, but after the Flames improbably held the doubters at bay for the entire regular season, it would be surprising to see them go quietly.