Matchups We Hope to See at the 2015 Monte-Carlo Masters
The 2015 Monte-Carlo Masters has set up a competitive and different draw. Seedings aside, it promises to deliver several outstanding matchups in the first few rounds.
There is also plenty of superstar power spread throughout the bracket, and it will deliver different outcomes as the tournament winds down.
The downside is that there will not be a final with the two biggest French Open favorites—Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. On the other hand, it increases the likelihood they will meet, albeit in the semifinals where the luster of a final would be bronze rather than gold.
We will start with the most intriguing opening-round matches likely to occur, followed by the late-week star-studded clashes that could invite the most interest.
Bernard Tomic vs. Novak Djokovic
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Novak Djokovic and Bernard Tomic were supposed to meet at the Indian Wells quarterfinal, but Tomic had to withdraw because of injuries. If each player wins his next match, the meeting will occur in the third round.
Why is this intriguing? First, Tomic is a lightning rod. Whatever he does—win or lose—often brings in the eyes and ire of tennis fans and critics. He has been charged as brash, a tanker and someone who is unafraid to make challenging comments toward the stars.
There's also a bit of history between Tomic and Djokovic, though Wimbledon 2011 seems like a lifetime ago. Teenage Tomic got to the quarterfinals and took one set off of Djokovic, who was in the midst of his streak of Grand Slam greatness.
Since, Tomic has floundered more than flourished, and a list of his off-court problems could fill a year's worth of tabloids from Melbourne to London. Coming into 2015, he was largely forgotten with a career 89-88 record and the emergence of younger and talented Aussies Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis.
Maybe that's what got Tomic's attention, because he is now a crisp 21-7 in 2015. He has an alternative kind of game, a bit retro with flatter shots, changes of pace and enticing ways to get opponents to chop out of their normal comfort and rhythm. Could he frustrate Djokovic on clay?
It would be one to watch.
Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
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Caution, this one could be hot to handle. No, this is not a cup of coffee.
Young Austrian star Dominic Thiem played the King of Clay at the 2014 French Open where Rafael Nadal found his form and claimed his ninth title at Roland Garros. They meet again on clay, but don't expect it to be as easy as 6-2, 6-2, 6-3.
If this were hard courts, Thiem might actually be favored to win. While Nadal has continued to grind against the tour, he will be facing more hotshots with firepower. He lost to Milos Raonic's big serve at Indian Wells, and now facing Thiem's powerful groundstrokes could be like facing Stanislas Wawrinka's challenge.
Fortunately for Nadal, this is Monte Carlo clay, and he can use his championship experience and savvy to navigate the emotional ups and downs that will occur throughout a series of matches at a big tournament.
A key for Nadal would be to get off to a quick start and fluster his younger opponent, reminding him of Roland Garros.
Otherwise, a great start by Thiem could make this an early-round blockbuster and demand that Nadal turn back the clock a bit for some red-clay magic.
Juan Monaco vs. Stanislas Wawrinka
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Back in the top 40, former top-10 pro Juan Monaco is playing well.
Monte Carlo defending champion Stanislas Wawrinka is not.
Could this be the makings of an early-round upset? For starters, Wawrinka has had a lot of early flameouts at big tournaments. He's a tough out if he gets to the late rounds, but he's hardly invincible in the early goings.
Furthermore, Monaco is a real clay-courter. He's hitting his stride with confidence and has the kind of patience and consistency on this surface to coerce Wawrinka into impatience and overhitting. How long will it be before Stan the Man starts ripping a little too hard and outside the lines?
The longer the match goes, the more you have to like Monaco. Besides, he has the right name to be royalty at Monte Carlo.
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Borna Coric vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov
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Another teenage prospect and another intriguing match, especially for the first round. Croatian Borna Coric may or may not have the real tennis stuff of champions anytime soon or ever, but he's already made his way up to No. 55 and ready to challenge more big draws.
In contrast, Alexandr Dolgopolov has cooled off immensely from his 2014 spring, falling from the top 20 as recently as last August to current No. 71. Nevertheless, he remains a dangerous opponent with an exciting package of aggressive strokes.
Dolgopolov would prefer something faster than clay, but he needs to make a comeback of sorts with positive momentum, found one win at a time.
So which is it? Young hype being fulfilled, or streaky veteran getting his mojo back? From a purely entertaining perspective filled with tennis skills and hubris, this could be a great one.
The winner would then be set for a likely match against Gael Monfils in the second round, with the winner there to meet Roger Federer in the third round. It's a very entertaining section of the draw on paper, so we will see if it lives up to this billing.
Bottom Quarter of the Draw
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Forget about Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer for a moment. In the upper half of the bottom quarter of the draw, four contestants and two matches make for some very interesting fireworks.
Fabio Fognini versus Jerzy Janowicz is filled with combustible possibilities. Neither player will hold back from shouting or showing frustration if things go south. It might be a great opportunity for a spectator to collect a souvenir broken racket.
However the match turns out, it will be fascinating. Clay-court Fognini trying to live up to his talent on clay versus Janowicz's big serve and love for forehands and cutesy drop shots.
There's also a redemption kind of match with hard-hitting clay-courter Fernando Verdasco taking on beleaguered Grigor Dimitrov, who will soon find his ranking plummet out of the lap of good-seeds luxury unless he starts stringing together some great tournaments.
Dimitrov has shown excellent defense on clay, but there are more important questions about his lack of a definitive offensive plan and his questionable tenacity.
The winners will then face each other, and the survivor could get Stanislas Wawrinka or Juan Monaco. Great theater for sure.
Quarterfinal: Roger Federer vs. Stanislas Wawrinka
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The Swiss are not exactly known for warfare, but Roger Federer vs. Stanislas Wawrinka is at least an example of civil unrest.
Things were fine in the hierarchy when Swiss legend Federer had his way with Wawrinka. By all appearances, they were on good terms as long as Wawrinka could keep his place as a distant second on the Davis Cup totem pole.
Last year, a lot changed for Switzerland tennis. One of its sons won the Australian Open, but it was not Federer. Then Federer nearly won the Monte-Carlo Masters for the first time in his career, but he was denied by Wawrinka.
Meanwhile, they were Davis Cup teammates taking advantage of a February fallout where favorite Davis Cup teams like Serbia and Spain were ousted. The Swiss suddenly had to play as the paper and sentimental favorite.
Whatever Federer thought about having to make his own comeback from an injury-plagued 2013, and if he was smarting from Wawrinka's bothersome rise in the rankings, he was going to have to coexist with his compatriot or watch the Davis Cup trophy blow up in their faces.
Wawrinka, long the ugly duckling stepchild, may not have had an easy time coming down from his greatest career highs to coexist with Federer.
And so their early November spat, including the verbal grenades from Federer's wife at a heated WTF match, led insiders like John McEnroe to claim that their incivilities might have cost Federer a chance to be ready to take on Novak Djokovic for the WTF title.
A juicy subplot to the spat was the Davis Cup with Federer's sore back and his need to coexist with Wawrinka to defeat France for that long-awaited national goal. It was ultimately solved, and peace was restored to Switzerland.
Then again, sometimes a little rebellion and anarchy is necessary for success and innovation. Good will alone cannot spin out tennis titles the same way as world neutrality, bank security, chocolates, tourism and Swiss chalet cuckoo clocks.
The quarterfinal stakes would not be the same as the final, but it wouldn't suffer from a lack of incentive from either player, assuming they both make it.
It could be like a walk past dormant Mount Vesuvius, its presence a reminder enough to stir old feelings. Rival foes do not bury their pasts in the ashes of a quarterfinal.
Quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal vs. David Ferrer
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Last year was Rafael Nadal's worst performance at Monte Carlo since he was a 16-year-old qualifier losing in the third round to finalist and seasoned clay-courter Guillermo Coria. The year was 2003.
Needless to say, and with some of the parallels mentioned in the Federer-Wawrinka slide, David Ferrer's little-brother victory over compatriot Nadal was a hit to Nadal's dynastic control of clay-court Europe.
For sure, Nadal was still working his way back from Australian Open difficulties, physical and mental, but it did foreshadow his most grueling road to a French Open final.
And that's why a potential quarterfinal match could be important in gauging Nadal's readiness for the annual French Open crowning. It would seem that Nadal should be better prepared this time around, and he certainly won't underestimate Ferrer.
For his part, Ferrer is also healthier and playing another round of fireball tennis. He's winning, too—three times as many titles as Nadal in 2015.
But Ferrer also knows that Nadal never forgets how to bring up his intensity and clay-court mastery. He took his revenge at Roland Garros, crushing Ferrer to an unbelievable degree to the point that the indomitable warrior admitted that he threw in the towel against Nadal.
Nadal's best will always trump Ferrer, but this match could be the barometer that we need to test Nadal.
Semifinal: Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
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OK, let's say a fair percentage of tennis fans are sick of watching the Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry and would love for some other player, anyone, to belt them both around on clay. What if they have already met in every conceivable scenario. Haven't we seen every facet of their rivalry?
No.
First, Djokovic has not defeated Nadal at the French Open. Well, what does that have to do with Monte Carlo?
Oddly enough, not a lot for Djokovic, because he is on top of his game, has conquered Nadal at Monte Carlo and does not need to prove he can win two of three sets against the Spaniard on clay.
But if Nadal gets to the semifinal, it means he is on track or at least ahead of 2014's run to the French Open. A win for Nadal against Djokovic, like 2012, would be a huge confidence boost for the Spaniard who probably needs this more than he would let on.
A win for Nadal could certainly remind Djokovic that taking three of five at Roland Garros over Nadal is the toughest assignment in tennis history.
It might not seem like a big deal today, but by the weekend, it could be brewing up an important result. Besides, it never gets old to watch them execute their tactics and adjustments. And in the end, who plays with more heart and desire than these two, ever?
Then suppose the winner gets to face Federer in the final. Something old and something new. Tennis greatness never goes out of style.
Bonus Slide: Matchup We're Glad NOT to See at Monte Carlo
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There are some tennis fans who care about an all-American final, but it's really more of an illustration that American tennis is mired in a dark age, long past the years of being a world power in the ATP. And American tennis is not even on the landscape to compete for something like the Monte-Carlo Masters.
For starters, it's bizarre that the Sam Querrey vs. Jack Sock final was held on clay (and not even America's green Har-Tru clay), which is the so-called United States men's clay-court championships at Houston, Texas.
America, synonymous with the hard-court invasion the past few decades, is a strange choice to host any kind of meaningful clay final. It's a bit like London featuring a national championship on carpet, Paris hosting on marble or Madrid hosting on blue clay (I wish that last example was merely hypothetical).
Yes, there have been countless articles about the fall of American tennis, as if most of the world cares, but we need to go no further than to point out that the last time two Americans met in the Houston final was 2003.
In that final, recent No. 1 Andre Agassi defeated future No. 1 Andy Roddick in three thrilling sets. Roddick would go on to win the U.S. Open a few months later.
A year earlier, Roddick defeated aging Pete Sampras on the strength of an 11-9 first-set tiebreaker. Sampras would go on to win the 2002 U.S. Open. My, how times have changed.
Unless you are a diehard American tennis believer who can project the previous two examples into hope that the loser of today's Houston match goes on to win the 2015 U.S. Open, then this slide referencing American tennis is little more than looking at the ruins of ancient Greece. The past is much greater than the legacy that is in motion.
Oh, and Sock defeated Querrey in two tiebreakers. As if anybody noticed.
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