How Will Early Loss in Monte Carlo Impact Roger Federer?
Another year, another title-less trip to Monte Carlo for Roger Federer.
The Swiss was out of sorts during his third-round loss to Gael Monfils, failing to find consistency with his groundstrokes or resolve during big points. Double-faults, netted forehands and shanked backhands plagued Federer during one of his sloppiest performances in recent memory.
He never looked comfortable against Monfils, relinquishing a 5-3 lead in the second-set tiebreak and equalling his earliest exit from the tournament since 2002.
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So what impact will that result have on Federer?
By failing to match his runner-up finish last year, Federer will lose 510 ranking points. While he's in no danger yet of being usurped for the No. 2 position, the Monfils defeat leaves him little room for error before Roland Garros.
But throw the rankings aside. Federer's performance in Monte Carlo is the type of ominous start to the clay-court season he desperately wanted to avoid.
Sure, Federer won the French Open in 2009 and has reached four other finals in Paris. He's put up consistent clay results throughout his career, yet only 10 of his 84 career titles have come on the dirt. It's undeniably his weakest surface.
Because clay takes better to spin than grass or hard courts, it produces a higher bounce. In turn, the pace of the game slows down and players have more time to reach shots.
The dirt neutralizes Federer's first-strike approach. It's tougher for him to hit clean winners or ace opponents, giving them more opportunities to break down his one-handed backhand. And that wing is especially vulnerable to shots with extra topspin.
That formula has allowed Rafael Nadal to post a 13-2 record against Federer on clay. As the Swiss ages, it's becoming tougher for him to hang with other guys from the baseline.
When Federer opted to skip the Miami Open last month for extra clay-court preparation, he couldn't imagine he'd be leaving Monte Carlo so soon. Now, the pressure is on to produce better results the next few weeks or risk going into the next Grand Slam low on momentum.
He'll have a chance to make amends next at the inaugural Istanbul Open. No other top-10 players are participating there, and Federer will be the overwhelming favorite to win the title.
A strong performance in Istanbul will be key heading into Madrid next month, a tournament Federer missed in 2014 because of the birth of his twin sons. At La Caja Magica, he's won two titles (2009 and 2012), and the faster courts play to his repertoire. With no points to defend, he'll have added incentive to make a deep run.
And he'll need a strong week in Madrid. While Federer's currently scheduled to play in Rome—the last big warm-up event before the French Open—he's been vague over the last several weeks about his plans, hinting he could stay home for a training block.
"Roger #Federer about his plans: "Practice hard in Switzerland. I'm playing Istanbul and Madrid. We'll see what happens with Rome"
— Barbara Grassi (@bargrassi) April 16, 2015"
Should Federer sit out Rome, he'll have extra time off before traveling to Paris, which could be a blessing or a curse depending on his results in Istanbul and Madrid. He can't afford to go into Roland Garros short on match preparation.
But there's no need to for him to panic because of a single match. One thing—among many—he's done well in his long career is shake off bad losses.
Federer understands the importance of perspective, telling the Associated Press (via The New York Times), "It was a good week for me anyways to come here and practice with the best, play a couple of matches ... At least it gives me some information, if I'm trying to be a bit positive right now."
Staying upbeat and confident is crucial. Federer can still have a successful clay-court campaign if he turns the page on the loss to Monfils and maintains his focus before the French Open. He'll just have to work hard because his present form won't cut it on the terre battue.
Beating Nadal or Novak Djokovic in Paris this year may be too tough of a task for Federer. But putting together solid results the next two months could be a catalyst to reach the prize he covets later this summer: Wimbledon.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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