Ranking the Biggest Statistical Surprises of the 2014-15 NHL Season

The NHL's regular season reaches its coda on Saturday, and then like a phoenix, a new season will dawn from the ashes. The 2014-15 campaign has been a surprising one to say the least, and that is evidenced by the fact that the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames all claimed a playoff spot over the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings.

In addition, there have been a number of instances, both positive and negative, in which a player posted some alarming statistics. Some players came out of nowhere, others fell off the face of the earth and others just were shocking for sundry reasons.

With that in mind, here's a look at the biggest statistical surprises of the regular season.

* For clarity: players will be listed because of a surprising statistic or lack thereof. For example—Rick Nash won't be listed because of his massive jump in goals, because the past shows he is a skilled goal scorer. 

8. League Wide Scoring Reaches New Low

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Martin St. Louis has won the Art Ross Trophy twice during his NHL career, and both times his point totals were relatively low.  

Despite this, the 2014-15 Art Ross winner will have the lowest regular-season point total since St. Louis' 94 points in 2003-04. The second-lowest total in recent memory after that was St. Louis' 2012-13 campaign, but that was a lockout year in which he tallied 60 points in 48 games.

This year's winner—barring an offensive explosion on Saturday—will finish within the 80-point range, and it will be the first time a scorer has finished in that range since the 1967-68 season. Stan Mikita captured the award that year, finishing with 87 points, but it was when the NHL season was 74 games long.

The decline in scoring could lead to how players are offensively evaluated, and it could in turn have an impact on the financial future of players who exceed expectations.

7. Devan Dubnyk Becomes the Minnesota Wild Savior

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Devan Dubnyk's run this season with the Minnesota Wild is why the "State of Hockey" will be hosting playoff games this season, and it can be described as an unexpected rise to the top. Over the past few seasons, Dubnyk has held his own on some bad teams with porous defense.

His goals-against numbers are atrocious, but his save percentages are solid when you consider the circumstances. Here's a look at Dubnyk's save percentages over the last five years, with 2014-15 included:

• 2010-11 — .916 save percentage
• 2011-12 — .914 save percentage
• 2012-13 — .920 save percentage
• 2013-14 — .891 save percentage
• 2014-15 — .930 save percentage

It is pretty strange that while Dubnyk gave the Edmonton Oilers three good years in terms of save percentage, they decided to cut bait when he had an.891 year. That led to his arrival in Arizona, and it has helped him restart his career.

Dubnyk has split this season between two teams; here is a look at said split between Arizona and Minnesota:

• Arizona — .916 save percentage, 2.72 goals-against average
• Minnesota — .938 save percentage, 1.73 goals-against average

The sudden elevation in performance is outstanding, and it led Kevin Woodley of NHL.com to ask the question, "What's changed?" He found an answer and, interestingly enough, all it had to do with was how Dubnyk looked at the puck.

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Dubnyk adjusted how he works on tracking the puck, a change which puts him on the cutting edge of a new tool some believe will be the biggest thing for goaltending since the butterfly.

It's all to do with your head. It's like closing on pucks, Dubnyk told NHL.com. You discover you have to move a whole lot less than you used to feel you need to. It's such small movements forward and just closing off the angle of the puck, and when you start to realize that and you realize how big you are when you put yourself in the right position -- and that's a big part of it -- you start to feel comfortable and then you can be patient on your feet. You can sit there and let plays happen in front of you and not be going down early, and everything kind of comes with it once you realize how big you are.

"

As you can see, all it took was some coaching and a style change to get him on track. This is not to diminish that Dubnyk's massive jump has been impressive, but it gives a different perspective on how he's accomplished the feat.

6. The Kids Are All Right: NHL Rookie Scoring on the Rise

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Although scoring is down in the NHL as a whole, scoring among rookies is the highest it has been in nine years. The Calgary Flames' Johnny Gaudreau is in first with 64 points, with Filip Forsberg of the Nashville Predators and the Ottawa Senators' Mark Stone tied for second with 62 points.

These totals seem relatively low, but having three prominent scoring rookies is a rare occurrence. The last time three rookies finished with over 60 points was the 2006-07 season, and the list is pretty impressive.

During the season in question, Evgeni Malkin tallied 85 points, Paul Stastny finished second with 78 points and Anze Kopitar finished third with 61 points.

The Calder Trophy vote for top NHL rookie is going to be a close one, and despite the drop in league scoring, it is very promising to see that there are a number of talented players making an impact at the NHL level.

It will be interesting to see how these rookies follow up, because the trio from 2006-07 has gone on to have some decent personal success to date. Malkin and Kopitar are established superstars, and Stastny has had a respectable career with the Colorado Avalanche and the St. Louis Blues. 

5. Phil Kessel Leaves the Top 10

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Phil Kessel entered the 2014-15 season as the NHL's most consistent scorer in recent history. Recent history in this situation refers to hockey from 2011 to 2014. Over the past three seasons, Kessel has finished within the NHL's top 10 for scoring leaders.

In 2011-12 he finished with 82 points, which was sixth best in the NHL. The next year he tallied 52 during a lockout-shortened 48-game season, and he ranked eighth best in the league. Last and certainly not least, Kessel finished the 2013-14 campaign with 80 points and found himself in the No. 6 spot among point leaders.

During the three-season span, Kessel scored 94 goals and 214 points, and he ranked No. 4 and No. 2 in each category respectively. These numbers solidify that Kessel was one of the NHL's best offensive players, and one you could count on. This season Kessel has 24 goals and 59 points, which will be his lowest totals since his 2009-10 season.

Are there reasons that could explain Kessel's down year? Yes, but nothing that would impact him this significantly. His linemates have stayed the same, the media pressure has increased slightly and the Toronto Maple Leafs failed to make the playoffs again.

If you discount the Leafs' run to the playoffs in the lockout year, things look status quo for Kessel. There's a chance he will be dealt this summer, a move that Toronto may ultimately regret. Kessel by far is the Leafs' best player since Mats Sundin, though, and when he's gone the team may finally start rebuilding in a meaningful way.

4. Carey Price's Run at History

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Prior to this season, Carey Price was nothing more than an above-average goaltender. This is a point some will take issue with, but look at the facts, primarily his most recent seasons:

• 2011-12 — 2.35 goals-against average, .923 save percentage
• 2012-13 — 2.43 goals-against average, .916 save percentage
• 2013-14—  2.32 goals-against average, .927 save percentage

For the sake of comparison, here is how the NHL's top goalie played in each of those seasons:

• 2011-12 Henrik Lundqvist — 1.97 goals-against average, .930 save percentage
• 2012-13 Sergei Bobrovsky — 2.00 goals-against average, .932 save percentage
• 2013-14 Tuukka Rask — 2.04 goals-against average, .930 save percentage

As you can see, in each season there was a significant gap in goals-against average and a decent gap in save percentage. This season, Price has been an elite netminder and is on pace to join a very small group of goaltenders.

With 40 wins and a sub-2.00 goals-against average, Price is set to achieve a feat accomplished by Terry Sawchuk, Bernie Parent, Martin Brodeur, Roman Turek and Jacques Plante.

Save percentage was not tracked during the time of Sawchuk, Parent or Plante, but it should be noted that Price's .934 save percentage is higher than any of the above goaltenders from the last three seasons.

Price played out of his mind at the Sochi Olympics, and that tournament can be looked at as a moment in which the perception of him as an elite goaltender changed. Despite this, you can't honestly say that Price's dominance this season was expected.

He is almost a lock to win the Vezina Trophy, and he may earn serious Hart Trophy consideration.

3. Patrick Sharp's Stark Offensive Decline

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Patrick Sharp has been a model of consistency since joining the Chicago Blackhawks, and his down play in 2014-15 came out of nowhere. 

To put in in perspective, here are the totals of Sharp's last four seasons in Chicago via Hockey-Reference:

• 2010-11 — 0.96 points per game, 0.46 goals per game
• 2011-12 — 0.93 points per game, 0.45 goals per game
• 2012-13 — 0.71 points per game, 0.21 goals per game
• 2013-14 — 0.95 points per game, 0.41 goals per game

Outside of the lockout year of 2012-13, that is quite an impressive run for an elite player who plays in a tough Western Conference. This season has been a different story for Sharp, and when you look at his 2014-15 numbers, it is apparent he's fallen off a statistical cliff:

• 2014-15 — 0.63 points per game, 0.22 goals per game

Given the level of consistency and statistical excellence Sharp has showcased for the last four years, it was surprising to see him go 19 games without a goal this season.

Sharp is a veteran scorer who has a number of great years left, and maybe his struggles this season could have to do with the uncertainty of his future in Chi-Town. The Blackhawks are going to have to make some tough decisions as they get their books in order for the 2015-16 season, and Mr. Sharp may end up being an unfortunate cap casualty.

2. Jiri Hudler Emerges as Elite Scorer

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Complete the following sentence by choosing the best possible answer:

Henrik Sedin, Claude Giroux, Steven Stamkos and Evgeni Malkin are players who _________.

A) Play center

B) Have won a Hart Trophy

C) Have won the Maurice Richard Trophy

D) Have fewer points than Jiri Hudler in 2014-15

If you can think back to when you took the SAT, there were always a few questions in which choice D was an obvious joke answer. These questions gave you one answer and two potential answers, possibly an attempt to inflate testing scores.

Regardless, in any other year, the best answer to the above sentence would be choice A, but not in 2014-15. Hudler currently sits No. 8 in the league in scoring, and it has been a real season-changer for the Calgary Flames.

He was a key contributor in the Flames' playoff clincher vs. the Los Angeles Kings, and he notched the game-winning goal off a sweet drop pass by Mason Raymond. His growth has been the biggest surprise of the season, and he's truly been a player who has flown under the radar.

So here's a quick rundown for Hudler, and why his success this year is of note.

Throughout his seven-year career in Detroit:

• 0.52 points per game

In 195 games with the Flames:

• 2012-13 — 0.64 points per game  
• 2013-14 — 0.72 points per game  
• 2014-15 — 0.97 points per game  
• 2012-15 — 0.81 points per game  

With a quarter-point-per-game jump from 0.72 to 0.97, some might say that Hudler's success has been inflated by playing with hotshots like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. They have helped, but you could argue Hudler has helped them more.

Of Hudler's 45 assists, 29 have been primary assists, which puts him first overall on the Flames. He also leads the team in every offensive statistic in the per-60-minutes category, which just goes to show how real his success has been this season.

1. Los Angeles Kings Don't Earn Enough Points and Miss the Playoffs

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With two Stanley Cups in three seasons, both coming in back-to-back 82-game seasons with the lockout in between, the Los Angeles Kings were on the precipice of becoming a dynasty. 

The key pieces were in place with Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Jeff Carter and Jonathan Quick, and the team bringing Marian Gaborik back strengthened a roster that also included Justin Williams, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson and so on. 

The team really didn't have any glaring weaknesses that would keep it from contending, but it became only the fifth defending Stanley Cup champion to miss the playoffs the next year.

The 1967 Toronto Maple Leafs, 1969 Montreal Canadiens, 1995 New Jersey Devils and 2006 Carolina Hurricanes previously were the only teams to "achieve" this feat, but Los Angeles entered the club after a loss to Calgary. 

The Kings absence is shocking, because no one would have ever thought they would be among the teams hoping the lottery balls bounced their way for a chance to draft Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel. The odds of this happening are highly unlikely, but anything can happen.

It will be interesting to see what the Kings do to fix their roster this summer, and it might include dumping Mike Richards' contract to get some cap space. The loss of Slava Voynov to suspension certainly impacted the Kings' defense, and it would have been interesting to see how the team could have filled his spot had it not been handcuffed by Richards' contract.

A win on Saturday vs. the San Jose Sharks would give L.A. 95 points, but it still would leave it short of securing a playoff spot. There's a good chance the Kings will compete for a Stanley Cup in the ensuing years, but the team's absence from the 2014-15 playoffs is one of the biggest surprises of the season.

Statistics via Hockey-Reference and NHL.com unless otherwise noted.