NHL Playoff Odds 2015: Handicapping Every Team's Championship Hopes

After a six-month, 82-game-per-team grind, the NHL regular season is finally behind us, giving way to the time of year that fans look forward to from the opening faceoff: the Stanley Cup playoffs.

It's an exciting time in particular for fans of the NHL's 16 surviving teams, in large part because anything can happen. Recent history has definitively shown that any team can win a playoff series, and, at times, even a 3-0 series lead isn't enough to guarantee advancement. Even a team that barely squeaked into the postseason, such as the 2012 Los Angeles Kings, can go the distance and secure a championship.

Who will win it all this year? We don't have a crystal ball, and we've just observed that anything can happen, but the following slideshow helps set the scene for the postseason by assigning odds to all 16 teams. Read on to see where each club ranks.

Calgary Flames

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Best Asset: Discipline

Calgary may be a young team, but it's a disciplined one.

One of the ways that manifests itself is in penalty differential. The Flames had 255 power plays in 2014-15 but only had to kill off penalties 186 times. That means they had 69 more power plays than penalty kills, and a team can make a lot of hay with that kind of split.

Even with a decidedly average efficiency rating in both disciplines, Calgary managed to rack up a plus-15 goal differential on special teams, and 15 extra goals wins a lot of games.

Potential Downfall: Even-Strength Possession

Every year, at least one team with lousy on-ice shot metrics (Corsi, Fenwick, etc.) makes the playoffs. This year it's the Calgary Flames, who were a bottom-five team in the NHL this season by most shot metrics. 

The Flames got around it in a lot of different ways. They had better-than-league-average goaltending, a fantastic shooting percentage, and as we've just considered, they did a good job of avoiding penalties/getting their opponents to take them.

But if these playoffs follow the typical pattern of a sharp decrease in penalties called, Calgary could find itself in trouble trying to hold its own at even strength.

Stanley Cup Odds: 50-1

Pittsburgh Penguins

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Best Asset: Dynamic Offensive Stars

Whatever problems the Pittsburgh Penguins have, they always have two of the best in the world at their disposal.

Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin both managed better than a point per game in a season where not many players hit that threshold; Crosby finished second to John Tavares in the NHL scoring race but also appeared in five less games.

Both centres are capable of taking over a shift or a game, and having both allows the Penguins to create matchup nightmares for any opposition coach.

Potential Downfall: Blue-Line Injuries 

Pittsburgh has had brutal injury troubles all season, but the problems are particularly pronounced on the blue line, where the Penguins have frequently had to ice just five players because they lacked any other healthy bodies. 

Among the injured are Norris candidate Kris Letang (likely done for the season, as per a report from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) and top young rearguards Olli Maatta and Derrick Pouliot. Christian Ehrhoff hasn't played since March.

Stanley Cup Odds: 35-1

Ottawa Senators

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Best Asset: Goaltending

If there's ever any question that goaltending is wildly unpredictable, there's no better demonstration than the fact that the guy who has been the NHL's best goalie over the last two months is a player who was a total unknown prior to that. Andrew Hammond forced the Ottawa Senators into the postseason with a flat-out ridiculous 0.941 save percentage and 20-1-2 record over 24 games. 

And it's not just Hammond. Craig Anderson, whose injury opened the door for Hammond, is an excellent starting goalie in his own right. Robin Lehner is a competent backup and one of the NHL's more promising up-and-coming 'tenders.

Potential Downfall: Inexperience 

Ottawa is a young and inexperienced team at pretty much every position. So far, youthful exuberance has served the team well, but the lack of experience may show in the postseason.

Just four of the team's top-nine forwards are over age 25 and have 200 games of NHL experience. The situation is even more pronounced on defence, where, of the team's healthy regulars, only Marc Methot meets the 25-year-old/200-plus NHL games threshold. 

Add in a rookie starting goalie and a first-year head coach and these playoffs are likely to be a learning experience for a lot of players.

Stanley Cup Odds: 35-1

Detroit Red Wings

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Best Asset: Professionalism

Mike Babcock, the Detroit Red Wings' head coach, is a highly touted free agent this summer in large part because he's seen as possibly the NHL's preeminent coach. He's developed coach after coach for other NHL teams and is highly respected.

Beyond Babcock, the Red Wings are littered with veterans who have seen it all and can be absolutely relied on. Nobody doubts what players such as Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterberg are going to bring night in and night out and even the team's depth players are typically two-way threats with lots of experience.

And, because Detroit's development system is second-to-none, even the club's younger players tend to be mature beyond their games played.

Potential Downfall: Goaltending Controversy

No team goes very far in the playoffs without at least competent goaltending, and the problem for Detroit is that its No. 1 goaltender is suddenly struggling badly. Jimmy Howard, who has generally been very good for the Red Wings over his playoff career, has a wretched a 0.896 save percentage since January 1, and if that continues it could submarine any chance the team has of advancing beyond the first round.

Backup goalie Petr Mrazek is an option, but he has never started an NHL playoff game and has been only average in the crease. Does head coach Mike Babcock give Howard a chance to rebound, or does he send a message to his starter that he isn't trusted by going with the 23-year-old backup in Game 1?

Stanley Cup Odds: 25-1

Winnipeg Jets

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Best Asset: Even-Strength Play 

The Jets have quietly established themselves as one of the NHL's best teams in five-on-five situations. Winnipeg's plus-18 goal differential compares favourably to the best teams in the West (Chicago, for example, has a plus-20 rating on the season), and it isn't a matter of the team riding the percentages, either, as the Jets' 52.6 percent Corsi rating is one of the best numbers in hockey.

Potential Downfall: Poor Discipline 

No NHL team has spent more time shorthanded this year than the Winnipeg Jets, who have had to ice their penalty-killing unit 308 times on the season. Detroit (286 times shorthanded) is the next-worst in this department among playoff teams, and the Jets averaged one more penalty every four games than even the Red Wings did. 

Adding to the problem is the Jets' penalty killing, which, despite all that practice, is only average (81.8 percent) at killing off opposition power plays. As a result, Winnipeg leads all playoff teams in power-play goals against (56).

Stanley Cup Odds: 25-1

Vancouver Canucks

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Best Asset: Special Teams Play 

The Vancouver Canucks are no great shakes five-on-five, but they've made up for it this year with a ridiculous special teams performance.

The power play, at 19.3 percent (No. 8 in the NHL) is quite good but not great, though the Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik, are always dangerous, and Radim Vrbata has been a superb addition to the unit. But combine a top-10 power play with the second-best penalty-killing unit in the NHL and all of a sudden Vancouver is creating a lot more goals than it gives up.  

Despite taking more penalties than they draw, the Canucks have a plus-12 goal differential on special teams.

Potential Downfall: One-Dimensional Offence 

The Sedin twins are excellent, but who else is going to score?

Once the usual top line (the Sedins and Vrbata) are discounted, the Canucks don't have a single skater with 40 points. They don't have one defenceman with 30 points and only have four forwards who clear that hurdle. 

This is a deep team in the sense that all four of its lines can play, but if an opponent figures out how to shut down the Sedin line, Vancouver is going to have a really tough time scoring enough goals to advance.

Stanley Cup Odds: 22-1

New York Islanders

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Best Asset: John Tavares 

It's true the New York Islanders are much more than one player, but Tavares has been absolutely crucial to the club's success.

Tavares is a Hart Trophy candidate partly thanks to his scoring (86 points in 82 games) but also because of how that compares to the rest of his teammates. After Tavares, the Isles' next-leading scorer is linemate Kyle Okposo, with 51 and then Ryan Strome, with just 50 points. Okposo would have scored more had he been healthy, but he also benefits from playing on the same line as New York's No. 1 centre most of the time.

Potential Downfall: The Penalty Kill 

Only one playoff team this year had a sub-80.0 percent penalty kill, and that club is the New York Islanders. The No. 26 team in the NHL during the regular season, New York outperformed teams such Arizona, Edmonton and Buffalo, and the woeful penalty kill has been a big part of the reason the Isles' backup goalies keep getting lit up.  

The saving graces for New York are it doesn't spend a lot of time on the PK (the Isles were the fourth-least penalized team in hockey this year), and it's exceptionally good at scoring shorthanded markers. Six different players have scored with New York down a man, leading to an NHL-best 10 shorthanded goals.

Stanley Cup Odds: 20-1

Montreal Canadiens

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Best Asset: Carey Price 

This is obvious, right? 

Price has arguably not only been the NHL's best player but also the most valuable to his team; he's going to be very hard to pass up for the Hart Trophy this year and deservedly so. He's one of a handful of elite goaltenders in the league, and he gives Montreal the chance to win not only win individual games but also playoff series. 

Price performed well for Montreal in the 2014 postseason, though he has yet to manage to achieve in the NHL what he did in the minors as a rookie pro: providing an MVP-level performance, while backstopping his team to the championship.

Potential Downfall: Offensive Output 

Tied with Pittsburgh as the lowest-scoring teams in the playoffs, Montreal's ability to put up the necessary offence to advance would be questionable even under perfect conditions. Conditions are not perfect.

Max Pacioretty led the team by a mile this year in both goals (37) and points (67) before injury ended his season two games early. If health keeps him from participating, the Habs will need to make up the difference somehow, and even if he does end up playing, he may well not be capable of providing the spark that he usually does.

Stanley Cup Odds: 16-1

Anaheim Ducks

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Best Asset: One Of The Best Top Lines In All Of Hockey

Regardless of who Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry line up alongside, Anaheim's top unit may well be the best in the postseason.

Very few teams can claim two legitimate perennial Hart Trophy candidates on the same club, but the Ducks can.

Perry, who won the award in 2011, when he scored 50 goals, is one of the league's best goal scorers and combines that quality with a nasty, agitating style that drives opponents mad. Getzlaf, who has been one of the NHL's best centres for years, is the 6'4" two-way power forward every team wishes it had up the middle.     

Anaheim has mix-and-matched the third member of the line, but the most common left wing has been Patrick Maroon, who combines decent offensive tools with size (6'2", 231 lbs) and the same physical edge as the other two players on the line.

Potential Downfall: Being On The Wrong Side Of The Tipping Point

The Ducks have posted a brilliant record this season mostly by doing one thing right: winning every single close game. The team has a ridiculous 33-1-7 record in games decided by a single goal.

The charitable read is that this is a clutch team, capable of finding that little bit extra necessary to win close games. But the other alternative is that when the difference between winning and losing for a team is so small, it doesn't take much for its opponent to find the little extra push necessary for the win.

Anaheim has managed to win a lot of games, despite the fact that its opponent was in most of them down to the final seconds. It's one thing to do that in the regular season, but in the playoffs, it's playing with fire.

Stanley Cup Odds: 16-1

Nashville Predators

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Best Asset: Two-Way Hockey 

Peter Laviolette may have brought out the offence as the Nashville Predators' head coach, but this is still a team that spent years under Barry Trotz, and it shows.

From the defence, where Shea Weber and Roman Josi are both two-way candidates, to the forward group which is long on mid-level scorers with high defensive value, Nashville is a team built on two-way threats. The club's 53.1 percent Fenwick (a plus/minus of unblocked shots) rating is the best of all Western playoff teams, and it speaks to the Predators' ability to play a 200-foot game.

Potential Downfall: Slumping Pekka Rinne 

It seems weird to critique a goalie who was a legitimate Vezina candidate in the first half of the season, but there's good reason for the Preds to be somewhat concerned here. 

Prior to January 1, Rinne had a 24-6-2 record with a 0.934 save percentage. Since January 1, he has a 17-11-4 record with a 0.911 save percentage. That post-January 1 run isn't awful, but it isn't as good as it needs to be, either; the save percentage is below the NHL average, and Rinne's win/loss record is just barely above 0.500 as a result. 

It's going to be very difficult for Nashville to win a Stanley Cup if Rinne isn't delivering exceptional play, and backup Carter Hutton is not a realistic relief option.

Stanley Cup Odds: 15-1

Washington Capitals

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Best Asset: The Power Play 

Yes, the Washington Capitals have the NHL's best power-play scorer, but their man advantage is so much more than that. 

Not that Alex Ovechkin hurts them any. With 25 power-play goals, Ovechkin alone has nearly as many as some of the NHL's lower-ranked teams. He's a one-shot scorer without peer, and head coach Barry Trotz has been able to keep him contributing on the man advantage the way he has for several seasons now. 

But there's more. Washington has had 11 different players score this year on the power play; if another team prioritizes Ovechkin and ignores other options it does so at its peril. The Caps also only surrendered four shorthanded markers all year, one of the best totals in the NHL.

Potential Downfall: Goalie Fatigue

Braden Holtby has been absolutely critical to Washington's success this year. His strong play, combined with No. 2 Justin Peters' struggles, meant that the Capitals leaned heavily on their No. 1 goalie, to the point that he played 73 games in the regular season.

That's a lot of action for any goalie, but it's an especially heavy load for Holtby, whose previous career high in games played was a modest 48. So far there's no sign that fatigue is catching up with him, but it will be something to watch for.

Stanley Cup Odds: 13-1

Minnesota Wild

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Best Asset: Devan Dubnyk  

There's really no question as to the move that turned around Minnesota's season. Before Dubnyk arrived, the team was well outside the playoff picture, and head coach Mike Yeo appeared to be living on borrowed time. Nobody in the organization could stop a puck, and a pretty decent team almost saw its season flushed as a result.

Enter Dubnyk. The Wild have given the 6'6" Edmonton cast-off start after start, and he has responded brilliantly, posting a 27-9-2 record and 0.936 save percentage since joining the team. It's not often a team adds a Hart Trophy candidate at the cost of a third-round draft pick, but that's what Minnesota did, and with the way Dubnyk's playing, the Wild have an honest shot at beating anybody.

Potential Downfall: The Power Play 

It's really been a tale of two seasons for the Wild. Except on the power play.

Through good times and bad times, Minnesota's man advantage has been exceptionally underwhelming.

Only Colorado and Buffalo have a worse power-play percentage this season than the Wild's 15.8 percent. Thomas Vanek leads the team with 17 power-play points, which, for the sake of contrast, puts him in a 12-way tie for 58th overall in the NHL.

It's hard to score goals in the postseason, and it gets a lot harder when a team can't take advantage of its power-play opportunities.

Stanley Cup Odds: 12-1

St. Louis Blues

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Best Asset: Versatility 

The St. Louis Blues are one of those rare teams that can play the game any way the opposition wants it. They're good at everything.

Looking for a five-on-five team with good underlying numbers? The Blues qualify. What about a special teams dynamo? St. Louis ranks No. 4 overall on the power play and No. 8 overall on the penalty kill. The Blues are stalwart defensively, have a number of game-breaking offensive talents and match up well against any opponent physically.

Ken Hitchcock is a veteran coach with a deep and talented roster, and it shows in every facet of the game.

Potential Downfall: Playoff Pressures 

It's true that the Blues are a very good team, but they've been a very good team before and lost anyway.

St. Louis has just one playoff series win in the last decade and has lost its last three rounds. Three times in its current iteration, it has come up against the best in the West (Los Angeles and Chicago) and three times has been found wanting; not once have the Blues even been able to force a seventh game. 

As good as this team is, it still needs to show that it can win a seven-game series against a truly elite opponent.

Stanley Cup Odds: 10-1

Chicago Blackhawks

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Best Asset: Tried-And-Tested Performers 

There isn't any question that the Chicago Blackhawks are a legitimate contender. This core group of players has gone on many lengthy playoff runs, and it doesn't have any questions left to answer.

The goaltending is sometimes identified as a weak point, but Corey Crawford has shown he can get the job done, and the Blackhawks have shown they can win with only an average performance. The forward corps is balanced and capable; so is the defensive group. This is a rounded team capable of beating any opponent in a seven-game series.

Potential Downfall: Patrick Kane's Health 

Kane has not been ruled out for the first round of the playoffs yet, and NHL.com's Brian Hedger reported that Kane has been participating in practices since April 1 and recently started taking slap shots (which had previously been off-limits). He has not, however, been cleared for contact, and a return date is still uncertain.

One of Chicago's big advantages in a tough first-round series against St. Louis a year ago was having the edge in offensive talent, in large part because of Kane's presence. If Kane can't play, or he plays but isn't at his usual level of ability, it's going to make a tough road through the Central Division even harder.

Stanley Cup Odds: 9-1

Tampa Bay Lightning

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Best Asset: Depth At All Positions 

Steven Stamkos supplies the star power, but there is nothing one-dimensional about this team.

Up front, the Tampa Bay Lightning boast 10 forwards who have managed either 10 goals or 30 points and five who have topped the 50-point plateau.

On defence, the team already had a solid, dependable top four and a variety of depth options before it added shutdown defender Braydon Coburn from Philadelphia at the deadline.

Matt Baker of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Coburn, who has been hurt for much of his time in Tampa Bay, expects to be good to go for the start of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the outstanding performance of Andrei Vasilevskiy in net gives the team a fallback option should starter Ben Bishop struggle or get hurt.

Potential Downfall: Road Record 

The Lightning have been lethal on home ice, but they have a nasty tendency to wilt on the road.

On the season, Tampa Bay went 18-16-7 on the road, which means that even if we nix shootout losses from the record (the Lightning had four of those on the road) the club was under 0.500 when outside its own arena. The same team which posted a ludicrous plus-51 goal differential in 41 games at home managed just a plus-two rating on the road.

Fortunately, the Lightning finished high enough in the standings that they have home-ice advantage for at least the first round. But this will be something to keep an eye on all the same.

Stanley Cup Odds: 9-1

New York Rangers

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Best Asset: Goaltending 

And no, we don't just mean Henrik Lundqvist.

That isn't a slight on Lundqvist, of course, who remains one of the league's reliably elite stoppers. He was the best player and the prime driver of a playoff run last spring that saw the New York Rangers advance to the Stanley Cup Final before bowing out to the eventual champions from Los Angeles. He will undoubtedly be the team's No. 1 once again, and it would be shocking if he wasn't once again excellent.

But the Rangers also have depth at the position, thanks to the emergence of Cam Talbot. Talbot was incredible as a rookie last season, but this year he was forced to step up and fill the No. 1 slot for a time, thanks to an injury to Lundqvist, and he delivered the kind of performance that will make New York confident if it needs to turn to him again. 

There is no bad option in the crease for the Rangers.

Potential Downfall: The Faceoff Circle 

Only the Buffalo Sabres have been worse at winning faceoffs this season than the Rangers. 

Faceoffs are one of those statistics so underrated that they're actually overrated in that, if enough people say something is underrated, the reverse becomes true. But while they probably get talked up far more than they deserve, faceoffs do matter.

As Arctic Ice Hockey's Gabriel Desjardins has shown in the past, the impact of winning or losing faceoffs is relatively small, but it isn't hard to imagine a scenario where New York faces a good faceoff team, and for some reason (penalty, injury, whatever), it can't use its one reliable option (Dominic Moore), and a critical goal against is scored off a lost draw.

Stanley Cup odds: 8-1

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com and war-on-ice.com.