2015 NBA Free Agents: Rumors, Predictions Based on Late-Season Buzz
The run-up to the 2015 NBA playoffs understandably has most of the pro basketball world buzzing about potential postseason matchups, championship hopes and bubble teams looking to slot into one of the last conference seeds.
Summer free-agent discussions have taken a back seat to the stretch-run madness, but there are still bits and pieces of info and buzz flying around regarding potential offseason player movement.
Here's a look at some of the recent chatter surrounding three players likely to hit the free-agent market this summer.
Rajon Rondo
Rajon Rondo's tenure with the Mavs has been less than ideal, lending credence to the idea that he may not be long for the Lone Star State. From his shouting incident with Rick Carlisle to abysmal free-throw shooting (38.2 percent), Rondo doesn't seem to be at home in Dallas.
Boston.com's Nik DeCosta-Klipa wondered in early March if the league has moved on from the style of play suited to Rondo:
"Meanwhile, if the Rockets represent the future, Rondo represents the past. He avoids the free throw line like it’s a disease, and for him it actually might be. He’s shooting 28 percent from the stripe with the Mavs. Twenty-eight percent. Only 15 percent of his points come from threes, while nearly a quarter came from mid-range jumpers.
The only team with a higher mid-range rate are the New York Knicks and the only other teams with a rate more than 20 percent are the Wizards, Hornets, Lakers, Pacers and Timberwolves. I’ll wait if you want to look up their records.
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Indeed, Rondo hasn't meshed particularly well with the Mavericks' free-flowing offense, although he may be making up for that based on his on/off court stats this year.
| Off: Pts per 100 Poss. | 108.5 | 114.3 | -5.8 |
| Def: Pts per 100 Poss. | 102.7 | 108.4 | -5.6 |
| Net Pts per 100 Poss. | +5.7 | +5.9 | -0.2 |
Regardless of his effect on the Mavericks, the versatile point guard will be a highly coveted free agent should he hit the open market. He's an impending unrestricted free agent that the ailing Los Angeles Lakers appear keen on making a priority, per Sean Deveney of the Sporting News: "Assuming the Lakers stay in win-soon mode, it is a safe bet that they will go hard after the two top point guards on the market, with Bryant’s pal Rajon Rondo at the head of the list and Goran Dragic behind him."
The Miami Heat's Goran Dragic would appear highly unlikely to come to Los Angeles, considering he's already in one of the glamorous NBA cities he apparently covets.
With Kobe Bryant potentially facing his swan song season next year, there's little doubt he will be hoping to go out with a bang while making sure, with whatever powers of persuasion he has, that the team is well set up for the future. We know from his breakfast habits that he's a pal and admirer of Rondo, and the fact that the latter's individual numbers are down could very well drive him into the Lakers' open arms.
Prediction: Rondo heads to the Los Angeles Lakers
Jae Crowder
Jae Crowder was one of the lesser-heralded parts of the deal that sent Rondo to Dallas in the first place. While he hardly made an impact with the Mavs, Crowder has certainly raised his stock with an increased role on the young, plucky Celtics.
| Dallas | 25 | 10.6 | 3.6 | .434 | .342 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Boston | 53 | 24.2 | 9.4 | .420 | .294 | 4.6 | 1.4 |
Grantland's Zach Lowe considers him a possible free-agent steal this summer due to his smart play and ability to defend multiple positions:
"Dallas officials were confident they could turn Crowder into an above-average 3-point shooter, and if he can get his corner 3 mark back to where it was last season, Crowder could get there soon. He’s a rugged defender capable of guarding pretty much any wing player, and Brad Stevens has even had him defend both power forwards and centers — including Al Jefferson — as part of smaller lineups. Quicker guards give Crowder issues, but he moves his feet well.
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Crowder would indeed seem to be a hot commodity with the league's affinity for the three-and-D type player, so long as he improves his three-point shot. However, Boston may be very keen on holding onto the restricted free agent, per ESPNBoston.com's Chris Forsberg:
"The Celtics are likely to extend a $1.2 million qualifying offer, but seem likely to explore a contract extension, particularly if other teams make a run at Crowder as a restricted free agent (Boston can match all offers).
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Crowder's age (24) and unselfish play could make him a key cog on Boston for years to come. With the team somewhat unexpectedly challenging for a playoff berth this year, Crowder may have the chance to prove to the team that he can keep up his solid, productive play when the games matter most.
Prediction: Crowder stays in Boston
Andrea Bargnani
There are few good stories to come from the New York Knicks this season, but veteran forward Andrea Bargnani can at least take pride in his individual improvement in his second season in the Big Apple.
Bargnani's recent play has been especially impressive, including a 26-point, four-block effort in a win over the 76ers on Sunday, and the 25 points, seven boards and four assists he notched in a loss to Boston March 27.
| 2013-14 | 29.9 | 13.3 | .442 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 14.5 |
| 2014-15 | 27.1 | 14.8 | .454 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 16.7 |
While the 29-year-old Italian's play has been a minor revelation in this trying season, the Knicks don't appear likely to reward the impending unrestricted free agent with a contract anywhere close to the one he currently enjoys ($11.5 million this season), per Marc Berman of the New York Post:
"The Knicks will consider bringing Bargnani back because of his offensive talent, but aren’t planning to use their cap space to do so. If they can get him back for the veteran’s minimum, he’ll surely be a Knick next season. But another team may outbid them on the free-agent market.
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Bargnani's age already doesn't make him a great fit for the Knicks' obvious need to rebuild, but he could be a solid veteran leader if he stays in New York on the cheap.
Indeed, the team might be able to scrounge up more cash for Bargnani if center Lou Amundson spurns the Knicks for Europe, a possibility reported by Berman. If that scenario does play out, look for the Knicks to reward Bargnani for his efforts and keep him in New York.
Prediction: Bargnani re-signs with the Knicks
Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.
