Are Shea Weber and Roman Josi Hurting Each Other's 2015 Norris Trophy Chances?

It’s an odd year for the Norris Trophy race. At the halfway point of the season, Calgary Flames captain Mark Giordano looked to have the title virtually sown up, but an injury that cost him the final quarter of the campaign has thrown the competition wide open. And in a wide-open competition, the fact that two legitimate candidates happen to play on the same team could prove crippling to each one’s hopes.

Either Shea Weber or Roman Josi could win the award. But because they both play for the Nashville Predators, it’s a good bet that neither will.

TSN’s venerable Bob McKenzie recently conducted a coaches poll to try to add some clarity to a confusing contest, and the results are not good news for the Predators duo:

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Karlsson received eight first-place votes, twice as many as Los Angeles King Doughty (4) and four times as many as the only other two blueliners—teammates Shea Weber and Roman Josi, two apiece—to get multiple first-place votes. The Weber-Josi dynamic is fascinating. Weber’s name has been regularly mentioned as a Norris candidate but it’s clear the coaches have been wowed by his Swiss teammate. Weber had a slight edge in balloting over Josi—he showed up on seven ballots to Josi’s six—but it was tight.

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McKenzie’s final tally of the votes of 20 NHL head coaches (10 from each conference) found Weber and Josi ranked fourth and fifth in Norris voting, respectively.

When it comes time to vote for the actual Norris, none of those coaches will have a say. But there’s no reason to believe that the members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association casting ballots won’t face the same problem. It’s awfully difficult to separate the two.

Weber’s biggest advantage is reputation. He’s been in the top 10 in Norris voting for six consecutive seasons; in 2013-14 he finished third, and on two occasions he has lost close votes to the eventual winner (2010-11 against Nicklas Lidstrom and 2011-12 to Erik Karlsson). Josi, in contrast, has never been the recipient of a Norris vote.

But statistically, Josi has an edge. The Norris typically goes to a high-scoring offensive defenceman; Josi has 55 points and, as of this writing, sits fourth among NHL defencemen in scoring. He is 10 points up on Weber and has outscored his regular partner both at even strength and on the penalty kill.

Jeff Vinnick/Getty Images

Head coach Peter Laviolette isn’t any help, either. The two players have been welded to each other this season, and neither has a substantial edge in ice time. Josi has averaged 26:28 per game to Weber’s 26:22; there’s absolutely nothing to be read into that six-second gap.

I tend to agree with the narrow consensus of the coaches, which has Weber ahead of Josi. But it’s awfully close, and not everybody is going to come down on the same side of the line.

There are good arguments for either, or both, of Weber and Josi to win the award ahead of players like Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and P.K. Subban (just as there are good arguments in favour of the latter three candidates). But when the final votes are tallied, the latter three have the massive advantage of not being in head-to-head competition with a teammate who is likely to siphon votes away from their candidacies. That advantage will likely be decisive.

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com and NHL.com. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.