Burning Questions for the 2015 Clay-Court Season
Get ready for long rallies, sliding and battles of endurance—the clay-court season is here.
No surface forces players to adapt quite like clay. Instead of relying on power to outlast opponents, you have to outthink and outlast them with mental and physical consistency.
Across Europe over the next two months, the top men and women in the world will duke it out for some of the most prestigious titles, including the second Grand Slam of the year. From Monte Carlo to Rome, Paris and everywhere in between, the most jam-packed part of the calendar is upon us.
And there will be no shortage of storylines.
Who will emerge to challenge Serena Williams—will it be Maria Sharapova, Simona Halep or a mystery contender? Can Rafael Nadal keep his title as the King of Clay or will Novak Djokovic steal his throne at Roland Garros? How will two of the elder statesmen—Roger Federer and David Ferrer—keep up with younger rivals?
Here is a look at those and other key questions to monitor during the clay-court season. Settle in for plenty of drama and excitement as the following players look to provide answers.
Which Young Players Will Challenge the Top Contenders?
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Milos Raonic has the booming serve and atomic forehand, while Grigor Dimitrov has the fluidity and all-court game. But neither of them have the consistency of Kei Nishikori.
On the men's side, Nishikori is the player most primed to make a run at the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer. The world No. 4 is not only one of the fastest players on the ATP Tour, he's also one of the most versatile.
Both an adept volleyer and technician from the baseline, Nishikori's game should hold up well on clay—provided he stays healthy. Last year, he reached the finals in Madrid and had Nadal on the ropes before a back injury forced him to retire. Injuries also carried over into the French Open, where he lost in the first round.
But Nishikori seems fit this season and has stormed to a 21-5 record. He has both the game and mindset to put together strong results over the coming weeks.
On the women's side, Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens have stolen headlines recently with their strong play. Yet the Americans could be overshadowed by another rising star.
Garbine Muguruza is the name to watch. At last year's French Open, she pulled a mammoth upset against Williams in the second run, and her run continued until a tough three-set loss to Sharapova in the quarterfinals.
She played with a calmness beyond her years during that stretch, which she'll look to improve upon this time around. Don't put it past the 21-year-old Spaniard.
Will David Ferrer Emerge as a Darkhorse?
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Don't look now, but David Ferrer is playing some of the best tennis of his career.
The 33-year-old is off to a sizzling 22-3 record with three titles (Doha, Rio de Janeiro and Acapulco) to start 2015. After recent losses on the hard courts of Indian Wells and Miami, however, he'll be overjoyed to get back on clay.
Other than Nadal or Djokovic, there hasn't been a more consistent player on clay over the last several years than Ferrer. The supremely fit Spaniard is like a bull from the baseline and refuses to yield in long rallies. That mindset has carried him far and transforms him into a tenacious opponent at tournaments like Monte Carlo, Barelona, Madrid and Rome.
At the French Open, Ferrer has made at least the quarterfinals each of the past three years, with a runner-up finish to Nadal in 2013. Based on that resume, it's easy to see why he can emerge as a threat to the Big Four over the next few weeks.
With Nadal facing his own uncertainties, Ferrer has an opportunity to make noise at the upcoming Masters Series events. Should he continue his winning ways, he'll head into Paris a dangerous player.
Is Simona Halep Prepared to Win Her First Major?
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If there's a player most ready to unseat Williams at the top of the game, it's Simona Halep.
The Romanian is in a dead heat with Williams in the year-to-date points race for No. 1, and she's built a staggering 24-3 record with three titles (Shenzhen, Dubai and Indian Wells) so far in 2015. At every event she's played this year, Halep has made at least the quarterfinals.
And now she gets to play on arguably her best surface.
At 5'6", Halep isn't exactly a heavy hitter. But what she lacks in power she makes up for in guile, athleticism and consistency. She's an incredibly fit and nimble player, which makes her an elite defender. Her counterpunching style is also suited well for long rallies on the dirt.
Her biggest roadblock to success this clay-court season will be the big game of Sharapova, who took out Halep in the finals of Madrid and the French Open last year. Yet she seems to have taken a step forward this season and is closing in on Sharapova in the rankings.
If Halep continues to play like she has recently, it won't be long before she rises to No. 2. She's a fierce competitor and will be a tough out for anyone she plays over the next few months.
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How Will Roger Federer Transition His Game?
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While Roger Federer isn’t exactly a slouch on clay, the surface has never really accentuated his game like grass or hard courts do.
On the dirt, it’s tougher for Federer to keep points short and find opportunities to attack the net. Because the ball bounces higher on clay, the Swiss also has trouble getting on top of backhands, and that wing has proven especially vulnerable.
Under the tutelage of coach Stefan Edberg, Federer’s aggressiveness in coming forward has only increased. While that strategy nearly led him to another title on the Wimbledon lawns last summer, it didn’t suit him so well on clay. Sure, he made the final in Monte Carlo—which he dropped to Stan Wawrinka—but he also suffered an opening-match loss in Rome and a fourth-round exit at the French Open to hot-hitting Ernests Gulbis.
So will this clay-court season be any different for the world No. 2?
He’ll certainly enter Monte Carlo with momentum after winning a title in Dubai and reaching another championship match at Indian Wells. Rest shouldn’t be an issue either, as he opted to skip Miami last week and start his clay preparation early.
To further gear up for Roland Garros, Federer added Istanbul to his upcoming schedule, so he’ll have four tournaments (Monte Carlo, Istanbul, Madrid and Rome) to get ready for the second Grand Slam of the year.
If he can successfully blend his net game with consistent baseline play, the five-time French Open finalist should have a strong run on the terre battue. And good results on the clay could set him up for even bigger things at Wimbledon.
Does Maria Sharapova Have Enough Confidence to Repeat at Roland Garros?
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It has been downhill for Maria Sharapova since the Australian Open.
After the world No. 2 opened the season with a title in Brisbane and surged to the final in Melbourne, it looked like Sharapova would make a serious run at the top spot in the rankings. But in that Aussie final, she was pummeled yet again by her nemesis, Williams.
That loss was a setback. At her next tournament in Acapulco, she struggled against Magdalena Rybarikova in the quarterfinals before withdrawing from her next match against Caroline Garcia with a stomach virus.
At Indian Wells, Flavia Pennetta took her down in a third-round thriller, which served as a prelude to Sharapova's shocking opening-match loss to Daria Gavrilova in Miami.
The Russian hasn't exactly inspired a lot of faith this spring. Luckily for her, she's back on her new favorite surface.
As she's aged and her game has adapted because of past shoulder problems, Sharapova seems most at home on the clay. While it's a surprising development for a player who won Wimbledon at age 17, she's become a natural on the surface.
In Paris, Sharapova has reached the last three French Open finals, with titles in 2012 and 2014. That pedigree will certainly help her while she tries to build back her confidence and defend her trophy.
Challengers will be coming hard for Sharapova at Roland Garros. How she performs in Madrid and Rome—two tournaments she's also won in the last few years—will be a prime indicator of her form heading into the next Grand Slam.
Can Rafael Nadal Defend His Throne in Paris?
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There's no denying the fact that Rafael Nadal is in a slump.
Since his win at last year's French Open, he's failed to beat a single top 10 player and has only one title, which he won in Buenos Aires this February. He's off to a meager—by his standards—15-5 record so far in 2015 and has slipped to No. 5 in the world.
Over the last 10 months, Nadal has suffered through a litany of injuries and losses to lower-ranked players. As he's struggled to even stay on the court, the Spaniard has found it more difficult to find his best form.
The switch to clay couldn't have come at a better time for him.
Something about the surface always brings out the best in Nadal, even when he's not at his top level. The familiar courts in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros will be like a refuge for him after a long year of turmoil. There, the dirt will highlight his vicious topspin and deft movement.
But can he turn the switch on in time or will his rivals continue to pass him by?
Until Nadal—a nine-time champion at the French Open—actually loses again in Paris, it's impossible not to consider him the favorite—even with the way Djokovic is currently playing. He has a knack for finding that extra gear when it matters most.
The next few weeks will be crucial for him to build confidence and consistency with his game again. He'll head into the French Open with more doubts than ever; just don't expect him to give away his crown without a fight.
Who Will Stop Serena Williams?
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There's no player in the world on a hotter steak right now than Serena Williams.
Just how good is she? Well, she's won every single match she's played in 2015—an 18-0 record that includes titles at the Australian Open and Miami Open. Even when the world No. 1 isn't at her best, she's still found ways to win. That's a scary thought for the rest of the WTA.
But how will that momentum carry over to clay? Although Williams is an accomplished player on the dirt, she's had plenty of bumps in the road in Paris.
A two-time (2002, 2013) French Open champion, Williams was stunned in the second round last year by upstart Muguruza. During her 11-year gap between titles at Roland Garros, Serena only made the semifinals one time. The American may not be able to coast there like she has everywhere else this season.
In Madrid and Rome, Williams has performed much better, with two titles at each tournament since 2012. If she can build momentum there, she'll roll into the French Open the heavy favorite.
It's tough to even consider Sharapova a rival anymore with the way Williams dominates their head-to-head. So who is the prime contender to challenge the American on clay? It could be last year's Roland Garros finalist, Halep, who recently pushed Williams to three tension-filled sets in Miami.
Unless Halep or another challenger plays a near-perfect match, stopping Williams could be a futile task.
Will Novak Djokovic Capture His First French Open Title?
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Djokovic conquered the three biggest events so far in 2015—the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami. So why isn’t he satisfied yet? Because an elusive crown is within his sights.
The only thing holding back Djokovic from a Career Slam is a victory at the French Open. He’s come so close in recent years, finishing as runner-up in 2012 and 2014 and pushing Rafael Nadal to the brink in their legendary 2013 semifinal. Each time, he came up short against his archrival.
Nadal is the thorn in his side. Though he’s beaten the Spaniard in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome during the last few years, Djokovic just can’t seem to reproduce that winning formula at Roland Garros.
But Nadal has looked vulnerable this season. He still hasn’t found his rhythm on the court and has lumbered through the opening months. He’s even started to question his own self-belief after a recent loss in Miami.
Now is the time for Djokovic to strike.
It’s no secret the world No. 1 has his eyes on the French Open. As he switches to clay, he’ll have one goal in mind as he tunes his game at the next few tournaments. Based off his current form, he’ll have his best chance yet to finally lift the trophy in Paris.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com and WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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