Is Eddie Lack's Excellent Form Making Ryan Miller Expendable for Canucks?

Eddie Lack hasn’t had a long career, but he has established himself as a legitimate candidate to take on the starting role somewhere. A successful multi-season stint in the AHL established him as a young goalie worth watching, and over two seasons in Vancouver he’s posted the kind of numbers that teams look for when hunting a new No. 1 goaltender.

Importantly, this season he’s also shown that he can perform in a feature role.

The Canucks’ decision to sign Ryan Miller to a three-year, $18 million contract last summer ensured that the team had an established starting goalie, but it also meant that Lack was consigned to the backup role once again after a strong rookie season. It’s hard to blame Vancouver for choosing the path it did, because while Lack was strong overall in 2013-14 (16-17-5, 0.912 save percentage) he wasn’t a world-beater, and he had a nasty slump after being handed the No. 1 role after Roberto Luongo was traded to Florida on March 4:

• Lack’s numbers prior to March 4: 9-9-4, 0.924 save percentage
• Lack’s numbers from March 4 on: 7-8-1, 0.893 save percentage

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The team’s record didn’t change much over either stretch, but in the former case, Lack was part of the solution, while in the latter he was most definitely part of the problem. With a slumping rookie the incumbent starter, general manager Jim Benning really had no choice but to bring in another goalie to hold the fort.

While that decision was prudent, the times have changed in Vancouver. Lack is now in his second season playing brilliantly, and this season he has actually posted better numbers when thrust into the spotlight. Miller is currently on injured reserve and hasn’t played since February 22; Lack has taken the opportunity to show NHL teams that he’s ready for a leading role:

• Lack’s numbers prior to February 22: 6-7-2, 0.913 save percentage
• Lack’s numbers from February 22 on: 8-4-1, 0.928 save percentage

Normally, we wouldn’t read much into such a small sample, but for those who wondered about his ability to handle the pressure of the No. 1 job, his performance since Miller went down has to be encouraging. It might also be the last step necessary before someone hands him a starting gig.

It isn’t just Lack’s short-term track record that makes him appealing as a potential starter. It’s the long-term trend. Lack was signed by the Canucks as an undrafted free agent after two very strong seasons in the Allsvenskan and some strong work as a backup in Sweden’s top league.

He won an AHL starting job away from journeyman goalie Tyler Weiman on merit and posted a 0.923 save percentage at that level on 3,500-odd shots over three seasons and two playoff runs. Thanks to Stephan Cooper of Habs Eyes on the Prize, we know that most goalies lose seven or eight save percentage points when they jump to the NHL, which in Lack’s case still translates to an above-average (0.916) save percentage.

Add in 75 games and 2,000-odd shots in the NHL with a 0.916 save percentage, and Lack looks a lot like a guy who is ready to take the next step.

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The trouble now is that the Canucks are in a difficult spot with their salary cap. Miller is still under contract and has a hefty dollar figure attached to his name; that makes it somewhat difficult to trade him in a summer when many teams have cap concerns. As Amy Judd of Global News reported at the time of the signing, Miller’s contract also includes a no-trade clause, which allows him to provide Vancouver with a list of just five trade destinations.

Lack is still cheap and is under contract for another year at a $1.15 million cap hit, so it isn’t a problem the Canucks are forced to resolve immediately. The problem is that after next season Lack becomes an unrestricted free agent, which means that Vancouver could be forced to trade him next year as a rental player or watch him walk for nothing.

It might be that we’re going to see a repeat this summer of the Canucks’ solution to their Roberto Luongo/Cory Schneider dilemma, where the team might prefer to keep the younger goalie but instead trades him because the older veteran has a contract that limits the team’s options.

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com and theAHL.com. Salary information via NHLNumbers.com. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.