It's on You, DeMarco Murray: The Fate of Chip Kelly, Running Backs and Philly

DeMarco Murray agreed to a five-year, $42 million contract with the Eagles on Thursday. If he does not produce, it could be the last five-year, $42 million contract any running back signs for a long time.

In the deal, Chip Kelly guaranteed $21 million to Murray, even though Kelly claims to be committed to strict salary-cap budgeting and Ryan Mathews was hanging around Eagles headquarters, ready to do Murray's job at a fraction of the price.

Kelly grabbed Mathews too, per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, because anything worth doing is worth overdoing. But Mathews is just premium overinsurance. If Murray does not produce, Kelly won't get any more chances to guarantee $21 million.

Murray got what he deserved Thursday. Kelly got what he wanted. If anyone truly understood what Kelly was building, we could say with confidence that Murray is a solid cornerstone.

Murray's talents appear tailored to Kelly's system. The Eagles' running back depth—as assayed March 12 at 6:50 p.m. ET (it's important to time-stamp these things when it comes to Kelly transactions)—should keep Murray from being overworked the way he was in Dallas. Murray's contract numbers are high for 2010's running backs but not astounding for a player of his pedigree.

Taking a narrow view of the past and future, Murray is a more productive player than LeSean McCoy with a cheaper short-term price tag, and Kelly received a promising linebacker, Kiko Alonso, in the bargain when he traded McCoy. And also Ryan Mathews; why not?

Isolated from the Kelly chaos, assuming that Murray's mileage concerns are no more worrisome than McCoy's, the Murray deal works. But there is more riding on the Murray signing than on the typical big-bucks free-agent deal.

Kelly has staked his future on this month's wild 'n' crazy swap meet, and Murray is the showpiece of Philly's radical restructuring. As Murray goes, so will the Eagles, Kelly's cutting-edge offensive philosophies and the hopes and dreams of Philadelphia sports fans. And if Murray flops, already skittish NFL executives will be even more reluctant to invest in running backs with lots of carries and soon-to-expire warranties.

Murray needs to have a great season, lead the Eagles deep into the playoffs and prove he was worth the investment. Otherwise, he will end careers and change the shape of the NFL. Murray and Kelly are going for broke together.

The Semi-Superstar Treatment

Matt Slocum/Associated Press/Associated Press

Perhaps the really big money—the quasi-elite quarterback or jolly-stomping defensive tackle money—is gone forever for workhorse running backs. But that doesn't mean the superstar treatment has to disappear as well.

Murray is the reigning NFL rushing champion. His legs launched 10,000 fantasy football championships. His deeds inspired a nation of Pop Warner running backs to cut back and stiff-arm—or tie their fingers in knots to make a digitized Murray do it for them in Madden. Murray is as famous as a rock star. There was a risk that he would never get paid like one, but at least he deserved to party like one.

Murray's week-long free-agency saga had most of the trappings of the fame-and-fortune treatment. There were rumors, speculation, a whispered bidding war that kept football fans in Philadelphia, Texas and elsewhere breathlessly refreshing Twitter late into Wednesday night.

Murray got spotted at a Mavericks game early in the week and was forced to wave away some eager reporters—a royal brushing off the paparazzi. The Eagles finally jetted him into Philadelphia on Thursday morning. Fans and the hyper-stimulated media awaited a plane that might as well have carried John, Paul, George and DeMarco.

But there was something hollow about DeMarco's glamorous week. The Murray rumor mill was silent while Ndamukong Suh and others grabbed headlines with their sometimes premature deals. It remained silent during the torrent of Jimmy Graham-Darrelle Revis-Haloti Ngata-Sam Bradford news. Murray was obviously back-burnered by NFL decision-makers, forced to wait until bigger purchases cleared the checking account.

When Murray finally made news, it was a tawdry tale of deleted Cowboys mentions on his Twitter account—the act of a jilted lover, not the most eligible bachelor on the free-agent market. Stars of Murray's stature should not be forced to generate their own social networking buzz. Skeptics hinted that the "bidding war" was not all it was cracked up to be, just an effort by his agent to lure more customers toward a sleepy storefront.

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Finally, Murray arrived in Philadelphia to find Mathews already there, two job applicants awkwardly coughing and avoiding eye contact in the waiting room. The goings-on at the NovaCare Complex on Thursday were not really the stuff of job interview nightmares—tell me why I should hire you, as opposed to the fully qualified and cheaper applicant fidgeting outside the door in full earshot—but the way things have gone in Philly the last two weeks, no one would have been surprised if Kelly gave the two running backs gladiator armor and ordered them to fight for his favor.

Ultimately, the Kelly Eagles were just a baleen whale swallowing all the plankton in their path. There was no Glengarry Glen Ross drama between Murray and his new understudy. But this sort of thing doesn't happen to Suh.

All is well that ends well: Murray's market machinations were good enough to garner $21 million guaranteed. But if Murray had to cope with a lukewarm market and second-fiddle treatment—if his best job opportunity only came because an NFL maverick is playing Extreme Turbo Gonzo Moneyball and Frank Gore had second thoughts about riding the Kelly Coaster—it shows just how precarious life is for the modern 1,000-yard rusher.

Murray had a ton of carries last year, but he wasn't driven into the ground in previous years. He's versatile, well-regarded and has a spotless off-field reputation. If Murray flops, the next guy with a few 1,000-yard seasons and more than 25 candles on his birthday cake will have to purchase billboard ads to attract attention and earn something close to what a utility infielder makes.

Murray can stop all of this by rushing for well over 1,000 yards, staying healthy, relegating Mathews to extravagant spare-tire status and leading the Eagles on a deep playoff run. The next guy in Murray's position won't get $100 million, but he will get some phone calls. One counterexample won't erase memories of decades of prematurely broken-down rushers. But it will give the sports world's most underpaid superstars a little dignity back.

Double Live Kelly

Watching Chip Kelly's Wednesday press conference was like watching The Who perform Quadrophenia in its entirety circa 1977. (Transcript here, via CSNPhilly.com.)

It was bold, angry, defiant, unpredictable, brilliantly contrary, contrarily brilliant, sometimes enlightening, often baffling and intermittently terrifying.

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

The biggest takeaway from Kelly's double-live album of a press conference is that he does not care what we think. Kelly's plan for selling his recent moves to Eagles fans is to say one thing, then say another, then get angry if we don't simultaneously accept both statements.

The Eagles are not shopping newcomer Bradford, but Kelly made sure we noted that they have already heard offers of a first-round pick. Kelly did not orchestrate executive Howie Roseman's demotion, but he wants you to remember that Roseman was in charge of last year's disappointing draft, lest you get too empathetic. His Eagles are shedding salary cap, except when they are adding $13 million quarterbacks or overpaying for other teams' second-best cornerbacks.

Kelly couched several of his recent transactions in the language of sports analytics Wednesday between windmill guitar solos and so many Sam Bradford-to-Drew Brees comparisons that I expected Bradford to arrive holding a bottle of cough syrup. Kelly talked about "buying low" and "selling high" and mixed economics with caponomics when he deigned to offer impatient explanations for his trades.

Kelly's analytics don't add up for this old analytics guy—you don't need to study the Curse of 370 to know there is no justification for a logjam of pricey veteran running backs—but Kelly doesn't really expect anyone to believe he stood by helplessly when owner Jeffrey Lurie stripped Roseman of power, either.

Murray is arguably a greater fit for Kelly's system than McCoy was. He's less of a Barry Sanders-like dancer, more of a one-cut guy reading zone blocks and taking what's available. It's also arguable that Bradford is a better fit for Kelly's system than any previous quarterback, though not a soul ever argued the point until it came time to justify/rationalize/wrap our splitting heads around the Bradford trade.

Lots of things are arguable, because Kelly's offense is either the most revolutionary strategy in the NFL since the run 'n' shoot or aw, shucks, not much different from every other offense if you look past the bells and whistles, depending on the needs of the argument. And if you ask Kelly about any specifics at this point, he's likely to whirl the microphone cord and bop you in the face.

Murray makes the Eagles' roster look much better than it looked yesterday, slightly better than it looked three days ago and roughly as good as it looked two weeks ago. If you don't like the current configuration of Philadelphia's roster, wait an hour.

If you study all of this motion and see an Eagles team that gained ground on the Jimmy Graham-enhanced Seahawks, the continuity-minded Packers or even the Cowboys, who will replace Murray with Adrian Peterson (probably) and soldier on behind their awesome offensive line, then you clearly heard a subliminal message in Kelly's vocal tracks.

Kelly said one thing that was very illuminating: "Everything's a one-year season for everybody." That's a unique perspective, and a scary one. General managers build through drafts and developmental pipelines. Analytics experts are also typically big on long-term planning. Coaches think in one-year increments. Successful organizations balance that push and pull.

So Kelly has his one year. For 2015, he has a more productive running back than he had last year, with a temporarily lower price tag. Kelly doesn't have to catch the Seahawks. But he doesn't have much margin for error after a pair of winning seasons in which the Eagles appeared to have a stable platform from which to launch a Super Bowl run. If this new Sooners-and-Ducks architecture crumbles, Kelly may have already chosen his fate: Lurie will decide to restructure, and what can poor Chip do but obey the boss?

If Kelly fails, the uptempo, no-huddle offense fails as nothing more than an NFL wrinkle. Kelly's offensive system has little to do with the Eagles' March of Madness, but the next innovator with a plan to change the fundamentals of football will be met with extra skepticism. Some fundamentals—like the wisdom of not piling risk upon risk—are there for a reason.

Kelly wants to prove critics wrong. That means Murray must prove Kelly right. Yes, there's Ryan Mathews as life insurance, but Kelly does not want to be pointing to a big Mathews season in December. It would invite uncomfortable questions like, "Why didn't we just sign Mathews?" Kelly needs to succeed because of his biggest decisions, not despite them.

Rush for 1,500 yards, DeMarco Murray. Fit the Kelly system perfectly. Make Bradford the quarterback we remember from the end of the George W. Bush administration—assuming Bradford is not just super-secret Marcus Mariota bait. Show the NFL that the Kelly system really can change the sport, on and off the field. Give the coach a chance to smash a grapefruit into the media's collective face during a Super Bowl celebration.

Everyone is counting on you.

Murray Quest

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Here in Philadelphia, Eagles fans are not as elated as they are fatigued. The last two weeks have been like cramming for the LSATs. The Kelly supporters who have not resorted to blind faith have maxed their cranial capacities to mentally assemble this jigsaw puzzle.

There are some who see everything the Eagles have done as an elaborate Lord of the Rings quest: Fetch the Seven ACLs of Shattershire and the Running Backs of the Four Winds, and only then shall ye be worthy to trade for the keys to unlock the Gates of Mariota.

Philadelphia fans can't wait to see Murray running for the Eagles and not the Cowboys. Just don't ask them if they would have been more content with McCoy in Philly and Murray in Oakland, or who they want at quarterback, or how they feel about the team's sudden lack of receivers.

The Eagles have always possessed Philadelphia's heart in a way the Phillies and 76ers never could, the way the Flyers have not been able to since bell bottoms went out of style. Check the records and outlooks for Philadelphia's pro sports teams—the Eagles are the only game in town. Kelly is the region's only hope. Free-agency whirlwinds are supposed to bring optimism and excitement. This one has brought doubt and confusion when the fans crave a reason to believe.

Murray can change that. His arrival already has Philly breathing a little easier, but anxiety is never far from the surface for an Eagles fan.

Rush for 1,500 yards, Murray. Lead the Eagles to the playoffs. Make the Cowboys look silly for letting you go. By the time you take the field, the Phillies will be closing in on 80 losses and Philly fans will be looking for something to cheer about the same way a fisherman's wife scans the horizon from the shore.

Prove that you are worth this investment, DeMarco Murray, and you can rescue a profession, a coach, a philosophy and a city.

No pressure.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.