How Much Is Jerry Hughes Worth as NFL Free Agency's Top Pass-Rusher?

Somewhere between the extremes lies the true value of defensive end Jerry Hughes. 

After just 873 snaps with the Colts over three seasons, the former first-round pick was dealt to Buffalo for middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, a player who Indianapolis would cut after just one season with the team. Upon joining Buffalo, Hughes' career immediately took off. There are only 11 players with 20 or more sacks over the last two seasons—Hughes is one of them. And, perhaps more importantly for his free-agent prospects, he was productive in both a 3-4 scheme and a 4-3 scheme over those two seasons. 

Player	Sacks
Justin Houston	33
J.J. Watt	31
Robert Quinn	29.5
Mario Williams	27.5
Elvis Dumervil	26.5
Junior Gallette	22
Ryan Kerrigan	22
Terrell Suggs	22
Jerry Hughes	20
Cameron Wake	20
Cameron Jordan	20

Skeptics can point to Hughes' teammates as a big reason for his resurgence. He was a clear second banana to star free-agent signing Mario Williams. He plays next to a pair of tackles that have made multiple Pro Bowl appearances in Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams. It's hard to call any pass-rusher's job a "plug and play" spot, but it's also hard to think of any pass-rusher put in a better position to succeed. 

And now you have the context. Hughes is one of the most productive rushers in the NFL over the past two seasons, but with only two seasons of exemplary work and a bevy of talented teammates next to him, there is cause for concern that asking him to be the best player on a defense won't yield the same results. Is Hughes a great player on his own, or a piece of a great puzzle? 

Fortunately for Hughes, his suitors have questions about every other edge-rusher scheduled to hit the market as well. Can we trust former All-Pro end Greg Hardy to stay out of the NFL personal conduct policy? Can we trust outside linebacker Brian Orakpo to stay healthy? Do we really believe in the small sample sizes of former Eagles linebacker Brandon Graham or Ravens defender Pernell McPhee? 

Player	Snaps (2013+2014)	Sacks (2013+2014)	Hurries (2013+2014)	PFF Pass-Rush Rating (2013+2014)
Jerry Hughes	1,428	20	90	+29.2
Greg Hardy	1,002	16	46	+20.8
Brian Orakpo	1,228	10.5	41	+11.4
Pernell McPhee	929	9.5	55	+28.4
Jason Worilds	1,841	15.5	49	+15.6
Brandon Graham	877	8.5	57	+20.3

By virtue of Hughes' question being less glaring than the questions posed to these other edge-rushers, we can establish him as the safest—and thus best—option for teams looking for rushing help. Still, it's been bizarre how eerily quiet his market has been. The Bills and Hughes have both said all the right things about him returning to Buffalo, and nobody else has said much about Hughes at all. 

Buffalo has some uncertainty about its cap situation now, though. After absorbing running back LeSean McCoy's contract in the trade for Kiko Alonso and bringing on quarterback Matt Cassel, they have likely halved their remaining cap space from $30 million to around $15 million. At least unless Buffalo manages to restructure with McCoy, which Over The Cap speculated may be a smart move. 

Hughes will turn 27 before the 2015 season, and given the actual term of most NFL contracts (as opposed to the theoretical ones we routinely hear about), is a good bet to make it through three seasons on his next deal. This is a big deal for NFL teams, who are generally wary of players over 30. 

It's with some irony that I point out that I think Indianapolis would be a terrific fit for Hughes. The Bjoern Werner pick looks like it will land on general manager Ryan Grigson's blooper reel, and it would allow Indy to cut ties with mediocre outside linebacker Erik Walden, saving a bit of cap space. Additionally, if the Colts believe that Robert Mathis will actually come back from his Achilles injury as strong as ever, they actually can use Hughes as a second banana. 

But Hughes' market is really going to come down to how wide a net he and his agent want to cast. If he's interested in winning, the Eagles have freed up an edge-rusher spot and have money to spare. If he wants the biggest contract he can get, Jacksonville has the most cap space and could use an edge-rusher with his talent. In terms of pure desperation, the Titans will be letting Derrick Morgan walk in free agency and essentially have nobody but Kamerion Wimbley with actual experience at the outside linebacker position. Some college teams have more edge-rushing depth than the Titans right now. 

Team	Cap Space	Top Returning Edge-Rusher
Jaguars	$68.4 million	Chris Clemons (8 sacks)
Raiders	$57.3 million	Justin Tuck (5 sacks)
Jets	$53.3 million	Quinton Coples (6.5 sacks)
Browns	$49.6 million	Paul Kruger (11 sacks)
Titans	$46.3 million	Kamerion Wimbley (2 sacks)
Colts	$41.2 million	Jonathan Newsome (6.5 sacks)
Eagles	$40.3 million	Connor Barwin (14.5 sacks)

Perhaps the most similar situation to Hughes over the past few seasons is the sudden onslaught of Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson. Johnson managed 20.5 sacks over the course of the 2011 and 2012 seasons after only starting four games in his three seasons prior to that. Johnson, you may remember got one of the most ridiculous contracts in NFL history during then-general manager Marty Hurney's Capstravaganza re-signing period. 

Player	Years	Snaps	Sacks	Hurries (PFF)	Contract
Charles Johnson	2010-2011	1,717	20.5	90	6 years, $72 million, $30 million guaranteed
Jerry Hughes	2013-2014	1,428	20	79	??

Hughes probably won't get the contract that Johnson got in free agency. But it shouldn't be too far off the mark for him to ask for it given the rising tide of cap space and the relative lack of questions about his ability to stay in the lineup and produce compared to other edge players in this class. 

However, I could see him getting squeezed by conservative general managers who are worried about what will happen if you take Hughes out of Buffalo's front and plug him in as the lone ranger on the outside. 

Somewhere between those two extremes, the value and the price point will match. I would take the over on Hughes' contract, since it only takes one team to fall in love with him for him to get overpaid. But, as with any player that actually makes it to free agency, there are questions.

Hughes has made a habit of answering those questions since making his way to Buffalo. Will he continue to do so in a new situation? 

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.