Odds to Win the Connor McDavid Sweepstakes After the 2015 NHL Trade Deadline

After the 2015 National Hockey League trade deadline passed last Monday, the league's teams have divided into three categories: the playoff contenders, the bubble teams and the draft lottery hopefuls.

This year's lottery is especially intriguing because the spoils include two prospects who are believed to be "generational talents," according to draft experts like TSN's Craig Button. Canada's Connor McDavid is the main attraction, with American Jack Eichel as a high-profile runner-up.

Though no one wants to suggest that a team would deliberately try to lose games to gain a better draft pick, it's for precisely this reason that the NHL draft lottery was introduced back in 1995—to try to level the playing field a bit among non-playoff teams. 

The lottery only impacts the first overall selection. No team will ever move down more than one spot, but the system has been tweaked a few times over the years and will feature new odds in 2015. The 30th-place team's chances of winning the lottery will drop from 25 percent in past years to 20 percent this year, with increased odds of success for teams finishing fifth-last or higher in the league standings.

Until all non-playoff teams get an equal chance at a draft-lottery win, the temptation will remain for rebuilding teams to try to finish as low as they can in the standings. To that end, trading off assets at the deadline not only brings in draft picks and new prospects, but it also increases the bad teams' chances of losing and, perhaps, gives them an even better chance to build for their future on draft day.

Starting from the bottom as Drake would say, here's a look at the NHL's current cellar-dwellers, their personnel moves up to the trade deadline and the odds that they'll find their way to the sweet spot and pick up that coveted No. 1 pick on lottery day in June.

Transactions shown date back nearly a month, when the Evander Kane deal between the Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres on February 9 kicked off this year's trading season.

Buffalo Sabres

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Where They Stand: 30th place in NHL; 64 games played, 43 points

Trade Deadline Moves 

• March 2 - Chris Stewart (F) traded to Minnesota Wild for 2017 second-round pick
• March 2 - Torrey Mitchell (F) traded to Montreal Canadiens for Jack Nevins (F) and 2016 seventh-round pick
• March 2 - Michal Neuvirth (G) traded to New York Islanders for Chad Johnson (G) and 2016 conditional third-round pick
• March 2 - Brian Flynn (F) traded to Montreal Canadiens for 2016 fifth-round pick
• February 11 - Jhonas Enroth (G) traded to Dallas Stars for Anders Lindback (G) and 2016 conditional third-round pick
• February 9 - Tyler Myers (D), Drew Stafford (F), Joel Armia (F), Brendan Lemieux (F) and 2015 first-round pick traded to Winnipeg Jets for Evander Kane (F), Zach Bogosian (D) and Jason Kasdorf (G) 

Position at Draft

The Buffalo Sabres had three first-round picks in the 2015 draft before trading one to the Winnipeg Jets as part of the Evander Kane deal. According to Pro Sports Transactions, the Jets will receive the lowest-ranked of those three picks based on end-of-season standings.

The Sabres will keep their own pick, which currently gives them the best odds of winning the draft lottery, while Winnipeg will receive the first-round pick of either the St. Louis Blues or New York Islanders. Both teams currently have 85 points and are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, in the NHL.

Analysis

After finishing at the bottom of the NHL standings in 2013-14, the Buffalo Sabres had to settle for the second overall pick in the draft when the Florida Panthers won the lottery and selected defenseman Aaron Ekblad.

Buffalo has kept the inside track on last place this season, but a 3-1-2 run in late February has cut the cushion between the Sabres and the Edmonton Oilers and Arizona Coyotes.

If the Sabres can hang on and finish last, they should have a good chance at winning this year's lottery after missing out in 2014.  

Odds of Winning Draft Lottery: 6-1

Edmonton Oilers

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Where They Stand: 29th place in NHL; 64 games played, 46 points, three points ahead of Buffalo

Trade Deadline Moves 

• March 2 - Jeff Petry (D) traded to Montreal Canadiens for a 2015 second-round pick and a conditional 2015 fifth-round pick

Position at Draft

The Edmonton Oilers currently hold the second spot in the NHL draft order. They also hold the 2015 first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins as part of their return from trading winger David Perron back in early January.

Analysis

If you're looking for evidence that winning the draft lottery is not necessarily a golden ticket back to respectability, look no further than the Edmonton Oilers.

With 30th-place finishes in 2009-10 and 2010-11 and a 29th-place finish in 2012, the Oilers defied the long-term odds by winning the lottery twice and earning the first overall pick in three straight years. With their first overall picks, Edmonton chose forwards Taylor Hall in 2010, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011 and Nail Yakupov in 2012.

The Oilers still haven't show signs of breaking through—and haven't made the bold moves that might be necessary for a true culture change that would alter the franchise's path.

Edmonton finished 28th in the standings in 2013-14 and picked center Leon Draisaitl third overall. After they made just one move at this year's trade deadline, expect the Oilers to get passed on the race to the bottom and earn the third or fourth pick again this season.

Odds of Winning Draft Lottery: 10-1

Arizona Coyotes

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Where They Stand: 28th place in NHL; 64 games played, 47 points, four points ahead of Buffalo

Trade Deadline Moves 

• March 2 - Mark Louis (F) traded to New York Islanders for David Leggio (G)
• March 2 - Zbynek Michalek (D) and a conditional draft pick traded to St. Louis Blues for Maxim Letunov (F)
• March 1 - Keith Yandle (D), Chris Summers (D) and a 2015 fourth-round pick traded to New York Rangers for John Moore (D), Anthony Duclair (F), a 2015 second-round pick and a conditional 2016 first-round pick
• February 28 - Antoine Vermette (F) traded to Chicago Blackhawks for Klas Dahlbeck (D) and a 2015 first-round pick

Position at Draft

With a 6-18-3 record since the beginning of 2015, the Arizona Coyotes now sit 28th in the NHL standings. They also now own Chicago's first-round pick thanks to their deadline trade of Antoine Vermette.

Analysis

If the hockey gods enjoy a good headline, the Arizona Coyotes will come out as winners in this year's draft lottery. 

In their first year under their new ownership, the Coyotes have done an impressive job of slithering down the standings since the calendar flipped to 2015, with a 6-18-3 record that now leaves them just four points above the Buffalo Sabres.

A marquee young star like Connor McDavid could be just the ticket to turning around a franchise that has struggled for its 20 years in the desert, and the Coyotes already have the personnel to make McDavid feel right at home.

Arizona drafted McDavid's 2015 World Junior Championship linemate Max Domi in 2013 and just acquired his other linemate from that gold-medal tournament, Anthony Duclair, as part of the Keith Yandle trade.

Watch for Arizona to potentially play the spoiler for Buffalo's draft dreams.

Odds of Winning Draft Lottery: 5-1

Carolina Hurricanes

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Where They Stand: 27th place in NHL; 62 games played, 55 points, 12 points ahead of Buffalo

Trade Deadline Moves 

• February 28 - Tim Gleason (D) traded to Washington Capitals for Jack Hillen (D) and a 2015 fourth-round draft pick
• February 25 - Andrej Sekera (D) traded to Los Angeles Kings for Roland McKeown (D) and a conditional first-round pick
• February 25 - Jiri Tlusty (F) traded to Winnipeg Jets for 2016 third-round pick and conditional 2015 sixth-round pick

Position at Draft

The Carolina Hurricanes currently hold the fourth spot in the draft order in the first round. As part of their return from the Andrej Sekera trade, they'll receive the Kings' 2015 first-round pick if Los Angeles qualifies for the playoffs this season. If the Kings miss out, the first-rounder will bounce back a year to 2016.

Analysis

The Hurricanes changed their head coach and general manager in the offseason, but their on-ice results have stayed basically the same—the 'Canes will miss the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season. Carolina picked seventh in last year's draft but is currently in the fourth position this season.

At the deadline, the Hurricanes were able to secure decent returns for their two biggest pending unrestricted free agents, Sekera and Tlusty, but the 'Canes should be due for a major roster shake-up after so many years of futility.

It's unlikely that Carolina will finish low enough to grab McDavid or Jack Eichel, so we could see the team do some wheeling and dealing at the draft to set its rebuild in motion.

Odds of Winning Draft Lottery: 15-1

Columbus Blue Jackets

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Where They Stand: 26th place in NHL; 63 games played, 56 points, 13 points ahead of Buffalo

Trade Deadline Moves

• March 2 - Jordan Leopold (D) traded to Minnesota Wild for Justin Falk (D) and a 2015 fifth-round draft pick
• March 2 - James Wisniewski (D) and a 2015 third-round draft pick traded to Anaheim Ducks for Rene Bourque (F), William Karlsson (F) and a 2015 second-round pick
• February 26 - Nathan Horton (F) traded to Toronto Maple Leafs for David Clarkson (F) 

Position at Draft

The Columbus Blue Jackets own their first-round pick, which would currently net them the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. No other first-round picks are in play for Columbus.

Analysis

If the Blue Jackets didn't have bad luck, they'd have no luck at all. After hitting a high-water mark with a rousing first-round playoff performance against the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013-14, the Jackets have been decimated by injuries to key players ever since.

Columbus leads the NHL with 399 man games lost, nearly 15 percent higher than the second-place Colorado Avalanche and more than twice as many as mid-tier teams like the Detroit Red Wings and Winnipeg Jets.

The Blue Jackets went out on a limb at the deadline to acquire the much-maligned David Clarkson in exchange for Nathan Horton, whose back issues have kept him sidelined for nearly a year. Given the year the Blue Jackets have had, it seems oddly fitting that Clarkson would suffer a torn oblique muscle in just his third game with Columbus.

Depending on the speed of his recovery, Clarkson could be sidelined for the rest of the season, according to Luke Fox of Sportsnet.

The snakebitten Blue Jackets are 10-17-1 since the beginning of 2015 and currently sit just one point ahead of 27th-place Carolina. They probably won't win the draft lottery, but they could still drop one more spot before the end of the 2014-15 season.

Odds of Winning Draft Lottery: 12-1

Toronto Maple Leafs

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Where They Stand: 25th place in NHL; 64 games played, 57 points, 14 points ahead of Buffalo

Trade Deadline Moves

• March 2 - Olli Jokinen (F) traded to St. Louis Blues for Joakim Lindstrom (F) and a conditional 2016 sixth-round draft pick
• February 26 - David Clarkson (F) traded to Columbus Blue Jackets for Nathan Horton (F)
• February 26 - Spencer Abbott (F) traded to Chicago Blackhawks for T.J. Brennan (D)
• February 26 - Daniel Winnik (F) traded to Pittsburgh Penguins for Zach Sill (F), 2015 sixth-round pick and 2016 fourth-round pick
• February 15 - Cody Franson (D) and Mike Santorelli (F) traded to Nashville Predators for Olli Jokinen (F), Brendan Leipsic (F) and 2015 first-round pick

Position at Draft

The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently positioned to pick sixth in the draft but are just one point ahead of Columbus and two points ahead of Carolina, so their position could drop before the end of the season. Toronto also owns Nashville's first-round pick from the Cody Franson trade, which will come near the end of the round.

Analysis

With the highest ticket prices in the NHL and just one playoff appearance in 10 seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs might finally change their business model.

New team president Brendan Shanahan and incumbent general manager Dave Nonis didn't execute any big deals for marquee players at this year's trade deadline, but they moved out nearly every one of their impending unrestricted free agents and even got David Clarkson's smothering seven-year contract off their books. 

Connor McDavid is a native of Newmarket, Ontario—a bedroom community less than an hour's drive from Toronto. It's unlikely that the Leafs will be in position to win the draft lottery in June, but if they do, the acquisition of a generational talent like McDavid would do wonders to restore the luster to a tarnished franchise.

Odds of Winning Draft Lottery: 8-1

Trade details from NHL.com. Draft order details from Pro Sports Transactions.