NFL Free Agents 2015: Latest Rumors and Predictions for Pro Bowl Stars

With the opening of NFL free agency just eight days away, front offices are well underway in constructing their roster outlook for 2015.  While no contract for a pending free agent can be finalized until March 10, scouting combine press conferences coupled with insider leaks have already revealed potential plans for some of the biggest names on the market.

However, the more intriguing stage of free agency has always been projecting the players who will change teams and have the most impact on the upcoming season.  From superstars like Darrelle Revis and Michael Bennett to role players like Brandon LaFell and Jacoby Jones, new free-agent signings have become core contributors to recent Super Bowl champions.

It's impossible to predict precisely who will affect the championship race next season, but it's not hard to see which players could create the biggest swings.  With that in mind, here's a look at the latest rumors surrounding a few former Pro Bowlers who could be changing teams in 2015.

Hardy Done in Carolina

Two seasons removed from a 15-sack campaign, All-Pro defensive end Greg Hardy is both one of the biggest talents and unknown quantities in free agency this season.  No one may be exactly sure of what to expect from Hardy after he missed all but one game last season amid a domestic violence charge, but Bill Voth of the Black and Blue Review reports that the Carolina Panthers are unlikely to retain the player they franchise-tagged before 2014:

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After his domestic violence case was dismissed earlier this month, a number of Hardy’s teammates went to bat for him, asking owner Jerry Richardson to give him another chance. According to multiple league sources, some momentum did build for a Hardy return in the days after his legal situation was cleared up. But, sources say, that slim possibility quickly cooled and eventually ended last week.

With Hardy facing a possible suspension from the NFL, and with Richardson’s difficulty in getting past the situation Hardy put himself and the Panthers in, the team will watch him go elsewhere in 2015.

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The Hardy-Carolina split is hardly a surprising one, given that the Panthers dealt with plenty of negative PR for initially letting Hardy play while the defensive end dealt with his off-field issues throughout training camp and into the regular season.  Though not as acrimonious as the well-publicized spat between Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings, it's understandable that the Panthers would want to separate themselves from the Hardy camp.

Setting aside off-field issues for a moment, Greg Hardy the player will likely be an excellent coup for whichever team he signs with.  Hardy's 26 sacks between 2012-13 were fifth-most in the league and second-most among 4-3 defensive ends, behind only St. Louis' Robert Quinn.  

It's unclear what kind of discipline Hardy may still receive from the NFL, which doesn't consider his aborted 2014 season as punishment, since he was paid while on the exempt list.  Still, with Peterson winning immediate reinstatement after his own domestic violence issues, league observers believe that any punishment for Hardy will be minimal:

Consequently, look for pressure-hungry 4-3 teams to leap at his services.  The most logical candidate would be the Cincinnati Bengals, who don't traditionally spend big in free agency but have a significant sense of urgency after their fourth consecutive first-round exit.  

The Bengals finished last in sack percentage in 2014, per TeamRankings.com, so look for Cincy to shell out good money to pair Hardy with fellow edge-rusher Carlos Dunlap and add more speed to a front seven that lagged behind at times in 2014.

Prediction: Hardy signs with Bengals (5 years/$35 million, $10 million guaranteed)

Iupati's Suitors

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Coaching changes often result in personnel overhauls, which could lead one of the offensive stalwarts of the Jim Harbaugh era to depart the Bay Area.  Mike Iupati has been a critical cog in the San Francisco 49ers' road-grading offensive system, but with Frisco willing to let Iupati test free agency, suitors have already emerged for the 27-year-old:

Washington and Tampa Bay are logical fits for Iupati, as both were among the worst running teams in the league last season.  Based on Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards metric, D.C. finished 19th in run blocking, while the Buccaneers were dead last.  

It's important to highlight run blocking specifically, for while Iupati has reached the Pro Bowl in each of the past three seasons, he's traditionally been one of the league's most lopsided linemen between pass- and run-blocking.  Using Pro Football Focus' grading metrics over that three-year run, Iupati was one of the league's best run-blockers each season, but graded out negatively in pass protection:

Season	Run Blocking Grade	Pass Blocking Grade
2014	+18.5	-7.5
2013	+10.7	-7.9
2012	+24.7	-3.4

Iupati struggles with lateral agility and anchoring at times, meaning that he's also probably better suited for a power-blocking scheme than a zone-running team.  These restrictions naturally limit his market, as there's enough film on the five-year veteran to highlight his very particular skill set.

That should probably eliminate Washington, though teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts have both the scheme, finances and need to lure Iupati.  Though there should be a strong market for the top guard in free agency, the safest bet is that Iupati stays with the team that knows him best.

Prediction: Iupati signs with 49ers (4 years/$30 million, $15 million guaranteed)

Phins Seeking CB Help?

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Since reaching the postseason in 2008, the Miami Dolphins have won between six and eight games in each of the six subsequent seasons.  Miami's attempts to break out of this sustained mediocrity will ultimately boil down to the long-term viability of the Joe Philbin-Ryan Tannehill pairing, but according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, the Phins are seeking to buttress their core with an upgrade at cornerback: 

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The Dolphins want to add at least one quality corner to upgrade over Cortland Finnegan, and free agents Kareem Jackson and Brandon Flowers are among those who have been discussed internally, according to a person with knowledge of Miami's discussions. (I'm sure there are other cornerbacks also of interest to Miami; these were merely two of the names we know have been talked about.)

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An important consideration is the Dolphins' lack of financial flexibility, as Miami ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of cap space based on OverTheCap.com's calculations.  When considering that the Phins will need to shell out a decent amount of money to retain free-agent starters like Jared Odrick, Jimmy Wilson, Charles Clay and Jason Trusnik, splurging on a corner to pair with All-Pro Brent Grimes could cost them valuable depth.

Nevertheless, it's clear that Miami does need an upgrade from Cortland Finnegan.  The 31-year-old struggled with injuries and performance during his first season in South Beach.  According to PFF, Finnegan allowed 1.43 yards per coverage snap, a mark that ranked worst on the team and in the bottom third among qualified corners. 

Of the names alluded to in Jackson's report, Houston's Kareem Jackson is probably the most realistic target.  That's not to suggest that he'll come cheap, for Texans general manager Rick Smith has expressed a desire to retain Jonathan Joseph's understudy:

At the same time, though, Houston has suggested that it will not stretch itself too far for Jackson, leaving them potentially vulnerable to a cornerback market that could see some inflation this free-agency period.  Consequently, look for Miami to let someone like Odrick walk while reallocating dollars toward beefing up their secondary.

Prediction: Dolphins sign Kareem Jackson (4 years/$36 million, $15 million guaranteed)