Who Is in Bigger Trouble, the Washington Wizards or Toronto Raptors?
The Eastern Conference has never been in a greater state of flux. After months of occupying two of the top three seeds, the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards are undergoing treacherous slides that have dropped them into murky waters.
That's not to say either team is in grave danger of missing the postseason. The weakened state of the conference power structure won't allow for even the most intense regression to produce such dramatic results.
However, following Toronto's 103-98 loss to the New York Knicks on Saturday night, the Raptors own a minuscule half-game lead on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoff race.
Washington, on the other hand, snapped its six-game losing streak with a 99-95 win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday evening. That said, the Wizards are still three games back of the fourth-seeded Cavaliers with fewer than two games separating them from the sixth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.
So with March upon us and fewer than 50 days remaining until the postseason, it's time to evaluate which team is in greater danger as jockeying for playoff position intensifies.
Why Toronto's in Bigger Trouble
The Raptors will still likely host a first-round playoff series, but this recent stretch has certainly put a damper on the team's status as a title contender.
Toronto hasn't won a game since Feb. 20, got romped by the Golden State Warriors on Friday night and then lost to the Knicks sans Kyle Lowry (although that's not an excuse because they're still the Knicks) on the second night of a back-to-back.
But this five-game losing streak has hardly been an isolated stretch.
Dating back to the start of February, Toronto's been in disarray on the offensive end of the floor. Much like the Wizards, the Raptors haven't had reliable outlets to turn to in times of crisis.
Since Feb. 1, Toronto has been putrid on offense—the end where it has made its hay all year. As the following chart illustrates, the team's offensive rating has been steadily declining since the start of 2015.
The only teams with worse offensive efficiency ratings in February were the Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings, Philadelphia 76ers and—surprise, surprise—Wizards.
At the core of that statistical decline have been struggles from the team's two cornerstones: Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
"Me? I'm trash," Lowry told reporters, according to the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat earlier this week. "I'm trying to figure it out right now, to be honest with you. I don't know (how to fix it), that's why I'm in here, working hard and trying to figure out what to do to get myself back on track."
DeRozan echoed that sentiment, per Wolstat, saying, "Right next to the trash can (that Lowry's) is. Both trash."
At least you can't fault them for masking the truth during their worst month in nearly a year, according to ESPN Stats & Info:
As Lowry and DeRozan suggested, Toronto's primary scorers were positively atrocious in February. The only regular rotational guard to shoot better than 40 percent from the field was backup floor general Greivis Vasquez (40.7 percent).
Lowry, DeRozan and Lou Williams all shot worse than 35 percent from the field and 33 percent from three.
| DeMar DeRozan | 16.7 | 33.9 | 12.5 |
| Lou Williams | 14.0 | 33.3 | 32.3 |
| Kyle Lowry | 11.9 | 34.2 | 24.0 |
While season-long totals purport Toronto owns the Eastern Conference's most potent offense, that mark is hardly indicative of how the team has played over the past four weeks.
If there's a silver lining, it's that Dwane Casey's defense has shown gradual improvement on a month-by month basis. Unfortunately, that trend was bucked when Toronto hemorrhaged 113 points to the Warriors and 103 to the Knicks while failing to break 100 on either occasion.
Care to sum things up, DeMar?
Yeah, that says it all.
Why Washington's in Bigger Trouble
Washington's back in the win column, folks.
Just don't act enthused around Marcin Gortat, who wasn't all that convinced by the team's triumph over the Detroit Pistons, according to Kyle Weidie of Truth About It:
Nor should he have been.
Washington blew a 21-point second-half lead and just barely escaped with its first win since Feb. 9. And the Wizards' losing streak was downright painful compared to Toronto's. Although the Raptors fell to the Knicks on Saturday night, Washington was coming off back-to-back losses against the Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers. You know, two of the league's three worst teams.
On both occasions, Washington failed to score more than 82 points. Sadly, that was to be expected given the team's offensive ineptitude without Bradley Beal, who just returned from a minor stress reaction in his right leg against Detroit.
Over the last month, here's the list of teams with lower offensive ratings than the Wizards, per NBA.com:
- Denver Nuggets
- Sacramento Kings
- Philadelphia 76ers
That's it.
During that span, Washington won a total of three games—the same number as New York, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Lakers.
"I wouldn't say rock bottom. It's a tough stretch," point guard John Wall said following Friday's loss to the Sixers, according to The Washington Post's Jorge Castillo. "We're still above .500, but the main thing is we got to get back to playing the right way."
But if recent history is an appropriate measuring stick, February may very well have been rock bottom, according to ESPN Stats & Info:
That means there may only be room for upward mobility from here on out, but Washington's general downward trajectory is still a cause for concern. The defense has held steady, by and large, but the team's 26th-ranked net rating over the last month suggests the offense may have peaked during a cushy December stretch.
Ultimately, the Wizards likely aren't as bad as a 3-9 February suggests but aren't as good as their 12-4 December originally led us to believe.
There's a middle ground there, but all roads are ominously leading to a first-round departure as the cream of the conference continues rising to the top.
Verdict
Regardless of which way you slice it, Washington is in bigger trouble.
Since Jan. 1, the Wizards are 12-18. They also lost all six of their road games last month. The Raptors aren't much better at 13-14 since the new year, but at least they're pushing .500.
Casey's squad is encountering struggles, without question, but Toronto's skid feels more like a momentary lapse than a steady decline into statistical purgatory.
With the firepower necessary to combat the conference's biggest guns (remember, they went 3-1 against Atlanta this year), Toronto is capable of quickly pivoting if it can string together a few games of elite offensive production.
Considering the Sixers, Cavaliers and Hornets comprise their next three showdowns, March could represent the perfect time for the Raptors to flip the switch and make a statement.
All statistics current as of the beginning of play March 1 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
