The Free-Agency Case for (And Against) Pernell McPhee

Let's talk about an impending unrestricted free agent who is almost certain to hit the open market in March. 

This man is only 26 years old with a ton of tread on his tires and no major injury concerns as he reaches his prime. Pro Football Focus graded him as the best player on a defense that it graded second in the NFL and ranked him second among all 3-4 outside linebackers last season. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller ranked him third among 2015 free agents at that position, and NFL.com has him ranked 14th overall. 

And yet Pernell McPhee's free-agent case is a curious one because he was a mere fifth-round pick in 2011, he has officially started only six career games, and he's never been to a Pro Bowl. 

When referring to McPhee and fellow Baltimore Ravens free agent Torrey Smith, Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome stated that his team probably doesn't have the salary-cap space to pay "market value" for either player, concluding that "it would hurt our roster overall in trying to retain other guys," according to ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley.

So McPhee is likely to cash in elsewhere. Should your team take a shot? Let's examine the pros and cons. 

The case for a blockbuster deal

While he isn't an every-down player, McPhee is an advanced-stats superstar and a favorite at PFF. Part of that has to do with his versatility. He left Mississippi State a defensive lineman and spent most of his first two years in Baltimore subbing as a defensive end and nose tackle, but he's since become a regular in the rotation at outside linebacker. 

His PFF grades have been extremely strong in all of those spots.

Year	PFF grade	Primary position	Positional rank
2011	20.5	DT	3rd
2012	0.1	DE	13th
2013	4.3	OLB	19th
2014	26.0	OLB	2nd

He's big and strong enough to hold it down in the trenches and has emerged as somewhat of a wild card within the Baltimore front seven due to his ability to crash the middle and collapse the pocket from wherever he lines up. 

"[He] will need a creative coordinator to get the best out of him," reads the PFF blurb on McPhee's free-agent outlook, "but his ability to win from various techniques is invaluable."

Bingo. 

That's why Baltimore was such an ideal home for McPhee. He was in good hands from the start with Chuck Pagano and has only flourished while changing positions slightly under Pagano's former colleague and replacement, Dean Pees. 

Chances are, if a team tries to sign him and lets him rush the passer within a static scheme from one spot as a regular starter, it'll be sorely disappointed. But if a team brings him in as a jack-of-all-trades who can play 5-technique, work as an edge-rusher and even move inside while performing a wide variety of rushing and non-rushing tasks, it'll reap the benefits. 

The case against a blockbuster deal

Was McPhee in the right place at the right time the last four years? It's not crazy to wonder if he benefited greatly from his circumstances. The Baltimore front seven is loaded with just enough talent to keep opposing offenses from being able to lock in on a guy such as him, and it suffered just enough injuries and dealt with just enough turnover to give him a chance to pad his numbers. 

The Ravens have fallen victim to free-agent vultures for years, mainly because they've been so productive defensively. And in the very recent past, those losses have looked like blessings in disguise for the Ravens' salary-cap department. 

They lost Arthur Jones to the Indianapolis Colts last offseason, but Jones failed to live up to expectations while dealing with a balky ankle in 2014. The jury's still out there, but with only 1.5 sacks and an abysmal PFF grade of minus-10.2, the defensive tackle has yet to give the Colts much return on their five-year, $33 million investment. 

One year earlier, lost Ravens free-agent pass-rusher Paul Kruger had just 4.5 sacks (down from 9.5 in his final season in Baltimore) in the first year of a five-year, $40.5 million deal with the Cleveland Browns, while PFF graded lost linebacker Dannell Ellerbe as the sixth-worst qualified inside 'backer in football during his maiden season with the Miami Dolphins. Ellerbe, who jumped ship for a five-year, $35 million deal that offseason, missed virtually the entire 2014 season due to a hip injury, and ESPN.com's James Walker now lists him as a candidate to be released. 

Like McPhee, Jones, Kruger and Ellerbe were never really the top guns in Baltimore. At the very least, they should serve as cautionary tales. 

So there's really no guarantee that McPhee will continue to be as effective in a new environment, presumably with less support and with a bigger role. 

Let's keep in mind that the man has never been on the field for more than 60 percent of his team's defensive snaps. Anytime you give starter money to a guy who has never consistently started, you're gambling. Throw in those examples, and you've got a risky situation. 

McPhee's never had an eight-sack or a 30-tackle season. Can he hold up in a full-time role and prorate the results he posted as a part-timer in Baltimore?

It's a question not just of performance but also of durability. 

I mentioned above that McPhee had no major injury concerns, but even minor ones have to be considered when you're contemplating monster contracts. McPhee had two arthroscopic knee procedures in 2012 and also dealt with thigh and groin injuries that year and in 2013. He's missed only four games in his career and none since 2012, but it's also possible his extremely healthy 2014 season was a slight aberration. 

Not an easy valuation

That's become obvious. His case truly is unique, but the consensus among those purportedly in the know is McPhee will strike it rich somewhere.

Sources recently told Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun he's in line for a deal that would pay him between $8 million and $10 million per year. That's a little hollow without having a total contract value or a guaranteed dollar figure, but it still gives you an indication of what the market might be for a player such as McPhee. 

Free agents are constantly overpaid, especially coming off breakout seasons on quality teams. The salary cap continues to rise steadily, and there are plenty of teams that can simply afford to pay beyond what many would perceive to be McPhee's value. 

And when front offices think they're on to something with free-agent role players whom they believe can amount to a lot more within their system, they often pay premiums without batting an eye.

How else do you explain Laurent Robinson getting a five-year, $32.5 million deal from the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2012 despite the fact he started only four games the previous season for the Dallas Cowboys and had gone over 400 yards only once in five NFL seasons? 

Or James Casey getting a three-year, $12 million deal from the Philadelphia Eagles in 2013 despite the fact he'd never gone over 400 yards or posted more than three touchdowns in four seasons with the Houston Texans?

Or offensive tackle Anthony Collins getting a four-year, $30 million deal from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2014 despite the fact he'd started just 12 games in the previous four seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals? 

By the way, Robinson is out of football, the Eagles have already released Casey, and Collins is coming off a terrible first season with the Bucs. 

Cautionary tales, all of them. But the Cleveland Browns run a similar defense, are desperate and have over $50 million in salary-cap space, per Over the Cap. The Colts now employ Pagano as their head coach and have more than $40 million to spend. Dick LeBeau would probably love to get his hands on a guy such as McPhee in Tennessee, and the Titans have nearly $45 million worth of cap room. 

Someone will bite, bidding war or not, and give McPhee something within the same range of what the market gave 20-something-year-old pass-rushers Michael Johnson and Lamarr Houston last year and Kruger, Ellerbe and Connor Barwin one year prior. 

Player	Year	Age	Deal
Justin Houston	2015	26	TBD
Jerry Hughes	2015	26	TBD
Michael Johnson	2014	28	5-YR, $44M ($18M guaranteed)
Lamarr Houston	2014	27	5-YR, $35M ($15M guaranteed)
Paul Kruger	2013	29	5-YR, $41M ($13M guaranteed)
Dannell Ellerbe	2013	28	5-YR, $35M ($14M guaranteed)
Connor Barwin	2013	29	6-YR, $36M ($8M guaranteed)

These things aren't totally predictable, which is what makes free agency so fun and winning so hard. It's safe to conclude that McPhee's versatility and trajectory will seduce someone, but there's a strong chance that team will eventually suffer buyer's remorse. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon