Breaking Down Canadiens and Ducks' Jiri Sekac-Devante Smith-Pelly Trade

On Tuesday, the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens pulled the trigger on a straight-up hockey trade, with 2010 second-round pick Devante Smith-Pelly moving to Quebec and highly touted summer signing Jiri Sekac heading to California.

The two teams announced the trade via their respective Twitter accounts:

One of these teams gets a 22-year-old forward playing 12 minutes per game at even strength, with mediocre underlying numbers but also untapped potential. The other gets a 22-year-old forward playing 12 minutes per game at even strength, with mediocre underlying numbers but also untapped potential.

It’s not that these two players are the same; it’s just that this is obviously a change-of-scenery trade. Both players are young, talented forwards who for one reason or another weren’t clicking in their respective cities, and the hope on both ends of this deal is that a second opinion could make all the difference.

It couldn’t have been easy for Montreal to part with Sekac, a player the club signed a year ago after the young Czech chose the Canadiens over a number of other NHL options. Even as Sekac struggled at times with the adjustment to North American hockey, even though he ended up in coach Michel Therrien’s doghouse, his potential was impossible to miss.

Francois Lacasse/Getty Images

Certainly, other NHLers saw it. Sportsnet’s Eric Engels put a piece out moments before the trade that quoted teammates Brendan Gallagher and Max Pacioretty praising Sekac’s offensive creativity, intelligence and the way he’s transitioned to the smaller rinks.

In the same article, New Jersey’s Martin Havlat talked up Sekac’s skating and his hands. Even without time in the AHL to adjust to the pace of the game on this side of the Atlantic, Sekac’s potential was obvious.

His play, of course, hasn't been perfect. Sekac has 16 points in 50 games, which is modest production, even for someone playing the minutes he was in Montreal; he ranked ninth among regular Habs forwards in terms of even-strength points per hour (1.26). And his underlying numbers in a Habs sweater weren't anything to write home about; in an average hour of five-on-five play, Montreal was outshot 29-25 with Sekac on the ice.

Additionally, while Sekac clearly still has time to improve as a player, both because he’s just 22 and because the adjustment from Europe can be difficult, it’s important not to overstate how incredible his potential is.

His breakthrough KHL season saw him pick up 36 points in 68 contests between the regular season and the playoffs; the year prior, he had managed just one assist in 29 contests. This is a player who in his draft year had 11 points in 38 USHL games. Yes, he’s a late-bloomer, and yes, there’s clearly potential there, but even if all goes well, the most likely scenario is that he emerges as a middle-six forward.  

The player on the other side of the deal isn’t likely to win the Art Ross any time soon, either.

Debora Robinson/Getty Images

Smith-Pelly has been around the NHL game significantly longer than Sekac. The Ontario native went pretty early in a strong 2010 draft after scoring at a point-per-game pace in the OHL, and after one extra season of junior, he graduated to the majors in 2011-12.

Time has shown that the Ducks were overeager to get the big, bullish winger into the NHL. In the two seasons following his first major league campaign, Smith-Pelly played 120 games in the minors, as opposed to just 26 games with Anaheim. His AHL scoring was reasonable but unspectacular (despite a power-play push), and when he returned to the Ducks full time this season, it was to considerably more muted expectations.

From a numbers perspective, Smith-Pelly’s 2014-15 campaign is a dead-ringer for Sekac’s. At the time of the trade, Smith-Pelly had 17 points in 54 games. His 1.25 points per hour at even strength ranked 10th among regular Anaheim forwards and is almost exactly the number posted by his counterpart in this trade.

Further, as with Sekac, Smith-Pelly’s underlying numbers are poor, with Anaheim being outshot by a 30-27 margin when he was on the ice at evens.

Smith-Pelly does have some advantages that Sekac doesn’t, however:

• Size. Sekac is listed at a reasonable 6’2” and 195 pounds. Smith-Pelly is only 6’0", but he tips the scales at 220 pounds.
• Versatility. As a raw rookie, it’s unsurprising that Sekac wasn’t used much on special teams. Smith-Pelly was an integral part of the Ducks’ penalty kill and saw some time on the power play as well (though he wasn’t nearly as productive as he had been in the AHL on the man advantage).
• Cap hit. According to NHL Numbers, both Smith-Pelly and Sekac have a year left on their current deals, but thanks to bonuses and a higher base salary, Smith-Pelly’s cap hit is $550,000 less.  
• Shot volume. Sekac has a 12.5 shooting percentage on 56 shots in the NHL this season, while Smith-Pelly has a 6.6 shooting percentage on 76 shots (south of his career average). For players with a short-term track record, more shots means less risk as shooting percentage can fluctuate wildly. This is particularly true for Sekac, as he is shooting well above the NHL average.
• Playoff experience. Smith-Pelly played 12 games for the Ducks in last year’s playoffs. It’s a small margin, but it can’t hurt.

Superficially, it feels like Montreal is trading a risky player with higher offensive upside for one with a lower ceiling but more likelihood of reaching it. That may be true, but there’s a problem in that Sekac has never really been an overly high scorer at any level, including during his breakthrough KHL campaign.

The Canadiens are also gaining a bigger, cheaper, more versatile and more proven player in exchange. There’s certainly risk, but general manager Marc Bergevin has done a reasonable job of mitigating it.

Statistics courtesy of BehindTheNet.ca and NHL.com. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.