Dave Lozo's Bag Skate: Las Vegas Expansion, Igor Larionov and System Hockey

Let's talk about three of my favorite things: Las Vegas, hockey and Igor Larionov.

Nearly two weeks after the potential ownership group in Las Vegas announced it had 5,000 season-ticket commitments in 36 hours, they released an update late Monday saying they are "near" 7,000, which is to say they have less than 7,000 commitments—which is to say they added less than 2,000 commitments in 12 days.

To prove to the NHL that Las Vegas is a viable market, hopeful owner Bill Foley set a goal of 10,000.

Is that worrisome?

Probably. To get 5,000 in 36 hours then less than 2,000 more in the next 300 hours or so isn't good. 

There isn't the obvious passion for a team in Vegas the way there was in Winnipeg when they reached 13,000 commitments in seven minutes for the oncoming Atlanta Thrashers. The counter-argument tends to be, "Well, they knew they had an actual team coming, not an expansion team with no players on it."

If Winnipeg was getting an expansion team, how long would it have taken to get to 13,000? Eleven minutes? Twelve?

This isn't about whether hockey can work in Vegas. At least, not entirely.

It's about expansion in general. If the NHL wants to add two teams in Las Vegas and Seattle or Quebec City and Hamilton, is it really a good idea?

GENE J. PUSKAR/Associated Press

Back to Larionov. He wrote an interesting piece for The Players Tribune this week, citing a lack of creativity in the NHL and how system hockey stomps out that creativity. He talked about Russian players mostly, but it could apply to any highly skilled young player coming into the league. 

Larionov's notion was that coaches play it safe, and that stifles potentially special players. There's truth to that. Then again, how many players does this effect? How many potential superstar, jaw-dropping talents aren't getting their day in the league because young, skilled players make defensive mistakes and too many get them relegated into ill-fitting roles?

It's impossible to answer, of course, but I'd like to posit another theory for Larionov to ignore because he's not reading this.

Maybe there's no choice but to play suffocating system hockey because there aren't enough skilled players to go around. Things have to be simplified because while Potential Pavel Datsyuk and Theoretical Tyler Seguin may be able to see the game four steps ahead, seven other guys, no matter how they are encouraged, can't.

There are 30 teams in the NHL—how many have viable, not overly skilled, decent, usable fourth lines?

Five? Four?

Is it easier to play a freer, more-skilled game when there are fewer less-skilled players around?

Let's say five teams have usable fourth lines. That means 25 teams do not. This doesn't even include a handful of teams with dubious third lines, but for the sake of argument, let's say there 25 teams with nothing to offer with forwards 10, 11 and 12.

That's about 75 unskilled players that aren't really necessary in the NHL.

What if we include defensemen? How many teams have a quality No. 6 guy? Again, maybe five? Heck, some teams even have questionable bottom pairings. 

Let's wipe out all No. 6 defensemen. That's another 30 players the NHL can live without.

That's, give or take, 105 players that aren't exactly making you get out of your seat, close to 15 percent of players. That's about five teams worth of players in a 30-team league. With a salary cap and parity, they get sprinkled throughout teams pretty evenly, save for a few teams.

Denis Brodeur/Getty Images

When Larionov was at his peak in the NHL, it was between 1989 and 1999. There were 21 teams in the league during his rookie season, and during his first nine seasons there were never more than 26 teams. If you dilute the talent pool, the game can't be played the same way.

Is scoring down from Larionov's days because coaches choke the life out of the game, or is this how the game has to be played to compensate for an overall decline in talent?

The Blackhawks can play a fun, free-wheeling game because they are loaded with talent from top to bottom in all areas. Can we really ask the Oilers, Coyotes and Sabres of the world to do the same?

If Larionov doesn't like today's NHL with 30 teams, what's he going to think if and when the league expands to 32 teams? What are games going to look like when teams are scraping the AHL and Europe to bring another 40-plus players into the league? 

The game may not be as fun as it once was, but it's certainly more profitable. One look at TV contracts and player contracts and expansion fees say that.

Perhaps boring hockey is the cost of doing business. 

More Larionov on Russian hockey

Unlike most of the stuff over at The Players Tribune, Larionov's piece on creativity and Russian hockey in the NHL was pretty good. It was far more insightful than, say, a player listing a bunch of really good centers.

About a year ago, I was trying to put together a KHL-related piece that never happened, mostly because I'm bad at my job. But I talked to Larionov about why fewer Russians were coming to the NHL and choosing the KHL instead. Some of the reasons were financially related, but Larionov also touched on the creativity/patience issue.

"

You’re looking for skill as a team, as a coach, as management, as a franchise. So you have to go for skill. You need the players who can bring the fun to the game. With certain players, Russian players get sent ot the minors for a long time for development. Obviously it’s an all-round game, you’ve got to play defense, this and that, but sometimes skill has to be a priority.

It's easy to play defense if you don’t take any chances. If it’s boring, you have to have some results. You have a right to survive. But if you’re playing offensive hockey, you have to have the balance on the team. You watch the Chicago Blackhawks, that’s the style you want to have. That’s the style people want to come and see. People want to come out and watch that show for 41 games plus the playoffs.

There are what, 750 people in the NHL? And every year, one or two spots are available. Sometimes, for players to go through that 3 or 4 years of playing in the minors…it’s good hockey, too…but if you have the skill, you have to let that develop.

"

Related: Larionov is the agent for the very creative, slow-developing Nail Yakupov.

To goal not to goal

In third period of Canucks-Rangers on Thursday, the Canucks appeared to score a tying goal off a net-mouth scramble. Rangers defenseman Marc Staal was sprawled on the ice, about half his body in the net, when the puck may or may not have been placed into the net and under Staal.

The call on the ice was no-goal. Review angles—especially the overhead—were inconclusive. But if the puck was under the part of Staal's body that was inside the net, how could it be seen?

The Canucks tied the game late and won in overtime, so it didn't affect the outcome, but what if it had?

"I hate it if it happened in the playoffs or a big Game 7 if something like that happens," Vancouver's Alex Burrows said. "It would be so bad if that happened. Maybe if there’s a technology. Put some cameras in the post or underneath the ice. If that happens in a Game 7, there could be jobs on the line, management jobs, millions of dollars."

There's no good answer. Cameras in posts are just as vulnerable to human traffic as the overhead cameras. A camera in the ice is good, but is there a way to get it deep enough so it can see the puck in relation to the goal line? Net cams require battery changes every period or so. How would the NHL change batteries inside cameras encased in ice?

Until chip technology comes along that lets officials see where a puck is, this will continue to happen. But with player tracking technology on the way, that change could be close.

Who Is Connor McDavid-ing This Week?

Bill Wippert/Getty Images

The tank battle for Connor McDavid will be quite the scene this season as teams stumble over each other to finish last in the standings, thus guaranteeing either McDavid or future American hero Jack Eichel.

30. Buffalo Sabres (17-38-5, 39 points) — Since the Evander Kane tank trade, the Sabres are 1-2-2. Four losses in five games but points in three of five games. The hard part of tanking is teams tend to start their backups against you. That's no obstacle for the Sabres, who are 3-5-2 this month despite facing just three No. 1s (Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak, Cory Schneider).

29. Edmonton Oilers (17-34-10, 44 points) — If the Oilers have any hope of closing the gap on Buffalo, they'll need to do it over the next four games: They face Minnesota, St. Louis, Chicago and Los Angeles. After a stop in Carolina, it's on to Pittsburgh and Detroit. It's a stretch where the Oilers can realistically get two of 14 points. Get excited, Edmonton.

28. Arizona Coyotes (20-33-7, 47 points) — Eight points back, it's a daunting hill to fall down. With six straight losses, the Coyotes are showing signs of being a dark horse in the tank battle. They still have a slew of pending UFAs to deal so the worst may be yet to come. 

Goal of the Week

It seemed like there were way more goals like this from Nathan MacKinnon last season.

He had a hat trick Saturday against Colorado, increasing his season total from nine to 12. You just don't see a skater split two defenders like that, at least not when there's that much space between the defenders and the puck carrier. The shot was decent too.  

One note on "enhanced" stats

The NHL unveiled its "new" statistical metrics last week, doing away with the Fenwick and Corsi monikers that have been in existence for close to a decade. There were Twitter arguments about the merits of changing the names to shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts, that dropping Fenwick and Corsi makes the stats easier to understand.

There were some "dad" arguments about making this change. "My dad doesn't know what Fenwick and Corsi are." Deadspin played the dad card, and Travis Hughes of SB Nation also referenced his dad.

I'm sure your dads are nice people but what do I care if they know the definitions of Corsi and Fenwick? Do your dads know the William H. Jennings Award? Or the Calder Trophy? Or any other goofily named NHL trophy that always has to come with an explanation for a lot of people, including dads? Corsi and Fenwick have been around for a while, were marginalized for just about all that time, and now that they've been accepted by the powers that be, we are erasing those names forever?

If your dad can tell me the names of the teams that played in the Norris Division in 1992, he can take a minute and learn Corsi/Fenwick.

It's like the NHL barged into a party that's been raging for five hours and threw out the hosts.

Questions and Answers

Got a question? Tweet me @davelozo or email me at [e-mail], but please don't call before 9 a.m. I will answer any of your questions about hockey or whatever if it's a good question.

1. Montreal vs. Washington: The Habs are a mediocre possession team that lacks depth and leans on Carey Price. The Caps are deeper, stronger at 5-on-5 and with Braden Holtby in net, they would be a problem.

2. N.Y. Islanders vs. Pittsburgh: I don't know if there's a bad first-round matchup for the Islanders, but having to face the team that beat them in 2013 wouldn't be good. There's a lot of experience on the Pens.

3. Tampa Bay vs. N.Y. Rangers: Again, not a lot for Tampa to worry about in the first round, but the Rangers have much more experience as a group and a better goaltender. The Lightning have the depth, but the Rangers may be a problem.

4. N.Y. Rangers vs. N.Y. Islanders: Unless Henrik Lundqvist is stealing games, the Islanders have looked like the far superior team in their four matchups.

5. Pittsburgh vs. Washington: The Caps are deeper in every area and have a more reliable goaltender. 

6. Detroit vs. Boston: Finesse vs. power. Power usually wins.

7. Washington vs. N.Y. Rangers: They still have three more matchups to change my mind. 

1. I'm not there anymore.

2. I left.

3. Si Senor, a sandwich place on E. Lynn

4. Char Bar

5. The airport had departing flights to my home.

Two people asked separate Lightning D questions. I don't get it.

Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Matt Carle, Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr and Radko Gudas are a pretty good sixsome when healthy. Carle is back soon, and Gudas could be back by the end of the season. 

Maybe they could use a depth guy? Think of being a fan of a really good team like being in a relationship; don't go looking for problems when they're not there and just enjoy it.

They're going to get buried is what. 

The only hope is the Ducks' John Gibson emerges between now and 2016, which is possible. There's potential there. But that's asking a lot of him 18 months from now. The young guns team is going to be so overmatched against Canada and the U.S. teams that no goalie will stand much of a chance. 

"

@DaveLozo why do we continue to fall in love when we know we're only going to end up getting hurt in the end?

— Ezequiel Romero (@King_Trip3) February 23, 2015"

Finally, a question about TV shows.

The ending to The Sopranos broke me. I have friends who invested years in Lost. They still get roped into TV dramas while I have committed my life and heart to Game of Thrones and that's it. Someone says, "Dave, you have to watch Justified." No, I say. No, I do not.

So why do people continue to invest their time in TV shows despite years of rejection? Probably because there isn't much love in their life so they...OHHHHHH. Now, I get it.

He's 31 years old. He's signed through 2018 at $5.75 million per season. He makes $6.75 million in actual dollars next season, $5.25 million next season and just $3.75 million in the final year of the deal.

He's injury-prone, yeah, but he's almost a lock for 20 goals a season, and there are far worse contracts. The problem with trading a guy with term on his deal beyond the current year is he's more than a rental. You need to find a team willing to take him for now and later, and that's hard.

Would Boston love him at the deadline? Sure. Would they love him for three more years? Doubtful.

I don't know exactly what he's worth, but he's good enough and his contract is OK enough where the return should be decent and they shouldn't have to retain salary.

I drop Seattle and Vegas in the Pacific (and since I have this power I rename it the Fenwick Division) and move Arizona to the Central (which is now the Corsi Division). That gives Arizona the roughest travel for anyone in the Corsi Division, but there's no other good way to do it.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, X-Men, NBA Jam, Double Play Baseball, Punch-Out!!

All statistics via NHL.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. Cap information via Spotrac.

Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.