Strikeforce: Carano Vs. Cyborg Analysis and Predictions

From www.mmagroundnpound.com:

Fabricio Werdum vs. Mike Kyle: This will be Werdum’s first fight since a KO loss to Junior Dos Santos ended his UFC career. He’s 11-4-1 overall and has beaten fighters such as Gabriel Gonzaga (twice), Alistair Overeem and Brandon Vera during his career. Werdum is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though his striking is still a work in progress. Kyle has a 12-6 MMA record, but hasn’t fought the competition that Werdum has. He’s lost most of his notable fights to guys like Paul Buentello and Justin Eilers, but is coming off an upset victory over Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante at Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields. Kyle is basically a brawler, with impressive KO power in his hands. However, the rest of his game isn’t up to par with the top of the heavyweight division. Werdum should be able to get a takedown early, and once he does, he’ll submit Kyle rather easily. Werdum via submission in the 1st.

Jay Hieron vs. Jesse Taylor: Hieron was originally a replacement for Joe Riggs and was scheduled to fight Nick Diaz for the Strikeforce welterweight title. However Diaz never took the CSAC mandated drug test, and was taken out of the fight. Diaz’s replacement is former The Ultimate Fighter cast member Jesse Taylor. Hieron is on a five-fight winning streak, and brings a 17-4 overall record to the cage for this contest. He fought in the UFC in 2004-2005, and had a record of 0-2, losing to Georges St. Pierre and Jonathan Goulet.  He has a strong wrestling background and is a decent striker. Taylor is on a seven-fight winning streak since he was released by the UFC. Like Hieron, Taylor also brings a solid wrestling background to this fight, though he’s far less well rounded than Hieron. He’s very big for the welterweight class, and uses his strength advantage to basically bully his opponents. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor control much of the fight early. I think his strength advantage will be tough for Hieron to handle early on, but eventually taking the fight on such short notice may hurt Taylor. I think late in the 2nd and into the 3rd round, Hieron will take over, eventually wearing down Taylor. Hieron via TKO in the 3rd.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida: This fight is for the Strikeforce interim lightweight title and is a rematch from a 2007 fight between the two in Japan. In that contest, Ishida won a decision victory after taking down Melendez almost at will. It was Melendez’s first MMA loss. Melendez was originally slated to face Strikeforce lightweight champion Josh Thomson, but Thomson was unable to recover quickly enough from an ankle injury to be able to compete. Strikeforce created an interim title and picked Ishida to replace Thomson. Ishida is 18-5 overall, and has a great wrestling base. Melendez is a better boxer than Ishida, but had trouble implementing it the last time they fought. This time should be different. The fact that this is a five round fight should play to Melendez’s advantage. Ishida hasn’t had as much time to train, and that could make a huge difference in a five round fight. Ishida may get some early takedowns, but eventually those shots will be slower and less powerful. That’s when Melendez will be able to take over en route to a decision win. Melendez via unanimous decision.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral: This fight is for Sobral’s Strikeforce light heavyweight championship. It was originally slated for the cancelled Affliction show from earlier this month. Sobral won the title by beating Bobby Southworth in November of 2008. He fought previously in the UFC and had a record of 5-4. He’s a very well-rounded fighter. He’ll be at a disadvantage in the striking department against the silled Mousasi, but will have a huge edge in wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Mousasi is 24 years old and comes from a kickboxing background. He’s 25-2 in his MMA career with wins over Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. His striking is phenominal, but he is still very green in the other aspects of his game. Sobral will try to exploit that with takedowns and submission attempts, but I’ve always thought “Babalu” was a little overrated. Mousasi will catch him when the fight is standing and knock him out. Mousasi via TKO in the 2nd.

Gina Carano vs. Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos: This fight is for the Strikeforce 145lb women’s title and is the biggest fight in women’s MMA history. Carano is 7-0 in her MMA career and comes from a Muay Thai background. She has powerful kicks and is a polished and very technical striker. Santos comes in with a 7-1 record, with her lone loss coming in her first professional fight. She’s only gone to a decision twice in her career, with the rest of her wins coming via TKO. She’s a very powerful striker, and has good wrestling skills as well. I’m expecting the majority of this fight to take place standing. Cyborg will try to load up on power shots, while Carano will use more movement and precision in her striking. People are talking like Cyborg has a huge power advantage on her feet, and she may have a slight one, but Carano is a very powerful fighter herself. Her kicks in particular are very strong. Gina will use her kicks and her angles along with her superior clinch game to beat Santos. Carano via TKO in the 3rd.