Does Taylor Hall Injury Signal a New Front-Runner in Connor McDavid Sweepstakes?

On Tuesday, the Edmonton Oilers announced that star left wing Taylor Hall would be out for up to six weeks after suffering a leg injury in a game against the San Jose Sharks a week prior. Hall had previously missed three games with an injury in the same area, but head coach Todd Nelson explained that this was in fact a new injury that had been revealed via MRI:

While Nelson wasn’t clear on the details, the key item here was the time frame. A six-week absence would keep Hall out of the lineup until the end of March, forcing the Oilers to play without him for nearly 20 games. It is a crippling blow to the capability of a team that already ranked among the worst in the NHL.

Of course, that barely matters for the Oilers; the playoffs have long since been out of the question. Even if the team were to win every single one of the 28 games left on its schedule, it wouldn’t be certain to make the postseason. What’s far more relevant is that this suddenly makes the race for 30th overall and the best position in the draft lottery competitive once again.

Edmonton had been improving steadily under Nelson, posting an 8-8-2 record over his 18 games as the team’s sole head coach. That improvement moved the Oilers out of last place in the NHL standings and allowed them to open up a four-point lead on the Buffalo Sabres. With the Sabres (2-16-0 in their last 18) faltering, it appeared that Buffalo was a virtual lock to finish last and claim the best position in the NHL’s summer draft lottery.

Hall’s injury casts some doubt on that, as the Oilers have won just two of the six games that Hall has missed over the last few weeks.

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But while Hall’s injury casts some doubt on Buffalo’s chances of finishing last overall, it’s not likely to prove decisive because general manager Tim Murray still has cards left to play. The Sabres are already an incredibly bad team, but they are about to get much, much worse.  

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NHL Numbers shows that Buffalo’s roster currently boasts nine players bound for unrestricted free agency this summer. It’s a list that includes both of the Sabres’ goalies, three regular defencemen and three of the team’s top nine forwards.

In January, Murray told Dan Rosen of NHL.com that he is “not going to let pending UFAs leave for nothing,” so it’s not hard to figure out what’s going to happen to that group; anybody that other NHL teams are willing to pay for will be headed out of town. Additionally, No. 1 defenceman Tyler Myers has been frequently mentioned in the rumour mill; he may well be joining the departing UFA’s on a flight out of Buffalo.

Edmonton has pending free agents too but not in those numbers. Defenceman Jeff Petry is likely to be dealt, and it’s possible that centre Derek Roy and backup goalie Viktor Fasth might have enough value to warrant a trade, but for the most part the Oilers aren’t likely to see the kind of exodus that Buffalo almost certainly will.  

What the Hall injury does more than anything is solidify the Oilers’ chances of holding on to 29th overall. Both the Arizona Coyotes and Carolina Hurricanes have a number of rental players to offer to a contender, with the Coyotes having already traded goaltender Devan Dubnyk to Minnesota. Edmonton is six points back of Carolina and eight back of Arizona, but with the Oilers improving a further climb up the standings was entirely plausible.  

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The true drama isn’t in this race to the bottom, which features clear lines among Buffalo, Edmonton and the rest of the pack. Instead, it’s going to come when the NHL holds the lottery. Under new rules, the team finishing in last has only a 20 percent chance of winning the draft lottery, with better teams seeing corresponding increases in their chances of winning.

If anything costs Buffalo Connor McDavid, it’s more likely to be lottery balls than it is the Oilers’ loss of Hall.  

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.