NCAA Basketball Recruiting: Odds for Each Contender to Land 5-Star F Harry Giles

Congratulations to Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Ohio State and UNLV—you have made the elite eight. 

No, they did not make the Elite Eight in the NCAA tournament, although there are certainly a few contenders in that list for that distinction this season. Rather, these are the finalists for 5-star prospect and No. 1 player in the class of 2016 (per 247Sports’ composite rankings), Harry Giles.

He announced as much on Twitter Monday night:

So, who is it going to be?

First off, it is no surprise that these schools want him. The North Carolina native checks in as a 6’10” and 210-pound power forward who brings explosive athleticism on both ends of the floor. He will swat plenty of shots as a rim protector, get out in transition, dominate the offensive and defensive boards and score at will on the low blocks and even from mid-range.

ESPN national recruiting analyst Paul Biancardi discussed Giles’ game, via Langston Wertz Jr. of the Charlotte Observer:

"

He’s got such great physical attributes. The body is strong. He’s tall and athletic and explosive. Some guys have those attributes, but he utilizes them. His physical gifts open your eyes, but combine that with his developing skill – he’s a great passer with a good feel for the game – and he almost has the whole package already. 

"

Clint Jackson of Rivals threw out another possibility that could make Giles’ recruitment all the more intriguing:

Here is a look at my projected odds for each of the contenders. Factors such as distance from his North Carolina home, program prestige and 247Sports’ crystal ball predictions were all considered in formulating this list.

UNLV: 25-1

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

UNLV comes in as the dark horse in this race for a number of reasons. For one, it is the furthest school from North Carolina, which seems to be a factor considering Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest are the top three schools on 247Sports’ crystal ball predictions. 

What’s more, it is the one school on this list that is not in a traditional power conference. That may not be completely fair, but UNLV gets less television exposure and media coverage than the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten.

Ohio State: 20-1

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Thad Matta and the Ohio State coaching staff have their work cut out for them if they hope to steal Giles from the North Carolina schools.

To Matta’s credit, he is an excellent recruiter (and the recent momentum the Buckeyes football program has could even help in this process in terms of keeping the Ohio State brand on the forefront of high schoolers’ minds), but most of the top-notch players he has brought to Columbus are from the Midwest area. 

Jared Sullinger, D’Angelo Russell, Evan Turner, Deshaun Thomas, Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr., just to name a few, were all from the Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Kentucky clustering. There may just be too much ground to make up against the ACC powerhouses to land someone like Giles.

Kansas: 15-1

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The same geographical disadvantages facing UNLV and Ohio State certainly apply to Kansas as well, but it gets a boost for prestige alone.

The Jayhawks are one of the most storied programs in the history of the sport, and it could make a lasting impression if they can get Giles to take an official visit to Allen Fieldhouse to hear the “Rock Chalk, Jayhawk” chants echoing off the walls. There is something to be said for the goosebumps that experience brings.

Syracuse: 15-1

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Syracuse has a grand total of zero official predictions on the 247Sports’ crystal ball page, but it does have one thing going for it—it is in the ACC.

Half of the schools on this list are ACC programs, and Giles clearly has an affinity for the conference. He will get to see the Orange battle the likes of Duke, North Carolina and Louisville in the coming couple of years, and they will be a factor as long as Jim Boeheim gets his program through this self-imposed postseason ban. 

Given his history and the history of the program, he almost certainly will.

Wake Forest: 10-1

Lance King/Getty Images

Wake Forest is the one school outside of North Carolina and Duke that has any crystal ball predictions at the moment. It is very close to home and has a better chance than many would expect by simply looking at the list of eight schools.

Sure, the Demon Deacons have fallen on tough times recently, but this is still a program with a proud history of winning and superstars. It wasn’t that long ago that Chris Paul and Tim Duncan were lacing it up and winning games in the ACC against the Dukes and North Carolinas of the world. 

Perhaps Giles can become Wake Forest’s next star.

Kentucky: 8-1

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Kentucky may not have any crystal ball predictions at the moment, but it would be foolish to discount the Wildcats as a serious suitor.

After all, they are the marquee program in college basketball right now, and nobody stacks up top-rated recruiting classes like John Calipari. It has to make some type of impression to watch this team challenge for an undefeated record this year as well. 

The sheer number of professional stars Calipari has coached, including Anthony Davis, John Wall, Derrick Rose and DeMarcus Cousins, just to name a few, means something to the nation’s top prospects too. Giles will certainly consider Kentucky during the rest of the recruiting process.

North Carolina: 4-1

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

It is hard to argue with the North Carolina brand for any prospect across the country, let alone the top ones inside the state.

The Tar Heels will be there until the end in this process because they have everything working for them—location, prestige and excellent coaching. The Tar Heels are in second place for the time being on 247Sports’ crystal ball predictions, and they will likely go all-in on trying to land Giles and keep him out of Durham.

The problem for North Carolina is that may be easier said than done.

Duke: 3-1

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Duke has a narrow edge on North Carolina in the 247Sports’ crystal ball predictions (46 percent to 38 percent), but that gap could widen if and when Mike Krzyzewski devotes even more recruiting attention toward Giles.

We are talking about the only Division I men’s coach to reach 1,000 wins and someone who has extensive experience with some of the best players in the NBA because of his time with USA basketball. If anyone can help Giles get to the pros, Krzyzewski would be on that short list. 

Between the historical relevance of Duke, the power of Krzyzewski and the location of the school, Duke is the team to beat.

Follow me on Twitter:

Follow @ScottPolacek