Dave Lozo's Bag Skate: The Curious Case of the Dallas Stars' Struggles

This has not been the 2014-15 Dallas Stars season many expected.

“We’re not as good as everybody thought we were going to be and we’re not as bad as we are right now,” Stars general manager Jim Nill said Sunday afternoon in New York.

Following the team’s 3-2 overtime victory against the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, which came one day after a horrendous 3-2 loss in Buffalo, the Stars are 11th in the West with 56 points, five behind the final wild-card spot. After reaching the playoffs in 2014 and adding Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky in the summer, at minimum, another postseason berth seemed to be in the cards.

Three weeks from the deadline, the Stars play 10 games that will decide Nill’s plans for the March 2 trade deadline. Nill said if he feels the playoffs aren’t realistic, he will look to unload pending unrestricted free agents—Shawn Horcoff and Erik Cole fit that bill. If the Stars are in the mix, Nill said he plans to stand pat and treat the pending returns from injury of Valeri Nichushkin and Patrik Nemeth as the team’s deadline improvements. 

Team	Games left	ROW	Points
5. Winnipeg	27	23	64
6. Calgary	28	27	63
7. San Jose	27	26	63
8. Vancouver	31	27	61
9. Minnesota	30	24	58
10. Los Angeles	29	22	58
11. Dallas	29	22	56
12. Colorado	28	15	55

“We’re starting to find our identity,” Nill said. “We dug a hole. We thought we were going to be this high-powered offense—and we are. But we forgot about the other parts of the game. We thought we could get away with it. We’re young and we make a lot of defensive mistakes. We have to learn to manage the game better.”

The frustrating part for the Stars is over the past five or six weeks, they have become a better defensive team, yet pucks are still regularly finding their way into their net.

“That’s a fair assessment,” coach Lindy Ruff said. “The differential has been good. Some of them have been bigger mistakes, maybe.” 

Since Jan. 6, the Stars are allowing an average of 29.6 shots per game; since Dec. 6, it’s 29.0 per game. Those are slightly above middle-of-the-road numbers but a vast improvement over their first 26 games, when they were giving up about 33 shots per game.

Via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, the Stars are 13th in Fenwick differential (51.3 percent) for the season, a number that’s plenty good enough to be a playoff team. Via war-on-ice.com, the Stars are at 51.8 percent since Jan. 6 and 53.6 percent since Dec. 6. The Stars have been coming out ahead in the shot-attempt battle pretty consistently for the past month or two. 

Since Jan. 6, however, the Stars are 6-7-2 and have allowed at least three goals in 11 of 15 games.

Kari Lehtonen has an .897 save percentage over that time; backup Anders Lindback has an .892 save percentage in four appearances in that period.

Season	Save pct.	ES save pct.	Team SA
2010-11	.914	.928	30.5
2011-12	.922	.926	30.8
2013	.916	.924	31.0
2013-14	.919	.925	30.4
2014-15	.905	.914	30.8

It’s not all Lehtonen’s fault, as goals like this one by Carl Hagelin or this one by Zemgus Girgensons or this one by Ryan O’Reilly are the result of defensive lapses that can’t be covered by even the best goaltender in the league.

As a team, though, the Stars’ five-on-five save percentage in this 6-7-2 stretch is .899. 

“If you talk to Kari, he’s disappointed,” Nill said. “He knows he has to be better. He admits he’s struggling. And he’s going to get off of it. We have to do our part too as a team. 

“It’s team defense. It’s not the defense. It’s team defense.”

Maybe Sunday’s win in New York, in which Lehtonen stopped 34 of 36 shots, will be the turning point. The Stars played a tight defensive game for two periods before hopping on the score-effects train in the third period, when they were outshot 20-2 and allowed a tying goal in the final minutes.

“Every game is so different,” Lehtonen said. “You just have to start with a clean slate and go do your best and not think too much. There’s no secrets. Just hard work and be smart out there.” 

A dominant possession team that couldn’t get a save was the song of the Minnesota Wild before they acquired Devan Dubnyk from the Arizona Coyotes. Since arriving, the Wild are 8-1-1, and Dubnyk has four (4!) shutouts. 

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Nill and the Stars are in a similar position, although a trade for goaltender won’t be the answer. They’ll need to acquire the Lehtonen who had a .925 even-strength save percentage last season to replace the one who has a .914 this season.

Trevor Daley believes the Stars are in for a big finish. 

“It’s frustrating for sure,” Daley said of playing well and losing of late. “I think most nights we’ve felt we had chances to win and we were the better team. That’s the frustrating part. We’ve got to not let that sneak in. We have to move on to the next win and keep being the better team because at the end of the day we’re going to get the right results. 

“I think we can very easily pop off 10 in a row. We have that capability. You look at our last 10 or 12 games, we probably should have won all of them.”

Spots 5-12 in the West are separated by nine points, and the Stars are entrenched in the middle of that pack. It may take a 10-game winning streak to rise to the top of the bottom of the West. The Stars qualified for the postseason in 2014 with 91 points, although it may take more than that this season.

“I don’t know if it’s better or not,” Nill said of the West this season compared to last, “but there are more teams in the mix this year. L.A.’s in the mix, Minnesota’s in the mix, Winnipeg’s in the mix, Vancouver’s in the mix, San Jose’s in the mix. There are about six teams in the mix. Colorado’s still there. It might not be as many points to get in this year. We’ve got so many teams battling, it could be 92, 93 points to get in.”

No matter how much blame you want to heap on the goaltending, with Nill’s trade-deadline plans and the way the team is playing of late, the Stars’ playoff fate probably comes down to Lehtonen over the next three weeks and the rest of the season.

Quote of the Week: Jon Cooper vs. Darryl Sutter

Lightning coach Jon Cooper and Kings coach Darryl Sutter are the two most quotable coaches in the NHL. Each week, we will let you decide who had the best quote.

Jon Cooper broke my heart last week. He said, and the context doesn't even matter, "You could see it by his celly."

Celly is what hockey people tend to call a celebration, because hockey people have a sickness for shortening already short words and adding a -y to them. I never pegged Cooper as a guy who may say, "Soupy's sauce and the bar-down half-clapper and celly were sick." It's like finding out your significant other believes in something completely ridiculous that can't be true, like cats are better than dogs.

What about ol' dry-witted Darryl Sutter? What's he got for us this week?

After losing to Florida on Feb. 5, well, here it is, from LA Kings Insider:

"

On what it’ll take to turn things around on the road trip:
Probably win the next game. Logical, isn’t it?

"

It sure is. The Kings won their next game in Tampa.

Piling on Corey Crawford

There was a goal in Sunday's Blackhawks-Blues game that didn't raise too many questions from the broadcast booth and didn't change the outcome of the game, although perhaps it should not have been allowed.

David Backes buried a rebound of a T.J. Oshie shot to tie the game at two midway though the second period. Oshie landed on top of goaltender Corey Crawford after his shot, preventing Crawford from sliding over to find a better position against Backes' shot.

The goal was allowed to stand, and the Blackhawks won, but should that have been considered no-goal?

Former referee and TSN contributor Kerry Fraser would have waved it off.

There's no definitive replay angle that shows Marian Hossa pushing Oshie, although there is contact. Even if this went to review, the call on the ice probably stands, but when is the NHL going to start looking at these types of goals as part of the video review process?

Who Is Connor McDavid-ing This Week?

The tank battle for Connor McDavid will be quite the scene this season as teams stumble over each other to finish last in the standings, thus guaranteeing either McDavid or future American hero Jack Eichel.

30. Buffalo Sabres (16-35-3, 35 points) — Ten shots. That's how many the Sabres had against the Islanders on Sunday. Ten. Ten shots. They had two in the final 25 minutes. The saddest part is this is the second time this season they had 10 shots in a game. Sad? Or a dedication to tanking?

29. Edmonton Oilers (15-30-9, 39 points) — Just as the Sabres begin to show vulnerability with two wins in four games, the Oilers come away with a disappointing 2-1 win in New Jersey on Monday to remain four points ahead. There's plenty of opportunity to lose on the horizon, though, with four straight road games.

28. Carolina Hurricanes (19-26-7, 45 points) — Carolina is 9-3-3 in its past 15 games yet still can't rise in the standings, which is a good thing. The Hurricanes may go into tank mode by trading Eric Staal and Cam Ward before the deadline, which may be the only way they can descend below the Oilers.

Goal of the Week

This is Morgan Rielly's fifth goal of the season and seventh in his 126 career games.

What Rielly does to Andrew Ference is illegal in all 50 states. I'm not as familiar with Canadian law, but since Rielly wasn't taken into custody after the goal, it must be legal in Ontario. 

Questions and Answers

Got a question? Tweet me @davelozo or email me at [e-mail], but please don't call before 9 a.m. I will answer any of your questions about hockey or whatever if it's a good question.

Dave,

Who's the worst player you can suggest as an MVP candidate without getting fat-out laughed at? Like, someone a local media person would write a column about nominating.

Lance Trukyool, Toronto

This question was one of my greatest challenges. It's all about your laugh threshold. I chuckle a bit at Rick Nash MVP talk, but I wouldn't say I ROTFLMAO at the notion. It's a legitimate question, though. Using an average laughter threshold, who is the player that is the absolute last person someone could endorse for the Hart Trophy without having his or her vote taken away?

John Russell/Getty Images

Who is the most unrealistic realistic player for the Hart? Mike Ribeiro.

Here's how I imagine a paragraph from columnist Pepper Flakseed's endorsement of Ribeiro: "Pekka Rinne will get all the headlines, but where would the Predators be without No. 1 center Mike Ribeiro? For years, the Predators have suffered offensively because of a lack of a top-line center, and Ribeiro has filled that role. Sure, he's only 25th in the league in scoring, but he's a big reason why Filip Forsberg is flourishing and the team is among the leaders in goals per game.

"With a $1.05 million cap hit, Ribeiro is the epitome of 'value,' isn't he?"

It's ridiculous, but part of me is like, "Yeah, you know, maybe."

Ribeiro won't finish in the top 20 in Hart voting, but I wouldn't laugh at Pepper's premise. 

1. No Jackets goals. The cannon is terrifying. The only thing worse is arenas that allow fans to blare horns.

2. My Rotisserie baseball team to have a good draft next month. This has nothing to do with your in-game experience. I just think everyone should be pulling for my team.

3. A Flyers loss. I assume as a Penguins fan that's your thing.

4. A parachuted Red Dawn-esque T-shirt. Nationwide Arena has weird giveaways.

5. Finally, and most importantly, you should hope to avoid a free Papa John's pizza. They launch them into sections the way other arenas launch T-shirts. If you catch it you don't have to eat it, but catching it may ruin your night.

I'd endorse standing pat. The Islanders are nearly a full point better than the second-best Fenwick team. They allow the second-fewest shots (27.0) per game. Maybe they could add a No. 7 guy as an insurance policy for any injuries that may occur between now and the playoffs, but they're fine on the back end. 

"

@DaveLozo people make lists of why hockey is superior to all other sports; I'd like you to flip the switch and write reasons why it's not

— Marty's Fault (@MartysFault) February 9, 2015"

Gotta hear both sides.

1. The regular season is too long. Yes, baseball is 162 games, but 82 NHL games are like 500 MLB games. Watching teams on the second half of back-to-backs after the All-Star Game/Olympics feels like a torture device. Hockey is way too physical a game for it play the same amount of games as the NBA.

2. Video review is too flawed. In the NFL, they can review plays and draw conclusions by looking at different angles of the same play. They don't need the "definitive" view. There's also more logic employed, like if there's an immediate recovery after a fumble, even if there's a whistle, possession still changes.

In Vancouver over the weekend, a Penguins goal was denied because the net was off a millisecond before the puck crossed the line. By the letter of the law, it's the right call, but come on. The puck still crosses the line between the area where the posts would be, no? Offside isn't reviewable, nor is goalie interference on goals. Too many holes for my liking.

3. Fighting. It gets you ejected everywhere else. It gets you five minutes in the NHL. Every time there's a fight after a clean hit in a contact sport, an angel gets his wings ripped off. 

4. The balanced schedule. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm guessing Canucks fans would rather see divisional rivals a few more times a year as opposed to forcing two games against every Eastern team on them. It's hard to imagine why so many teams would prefer extra games against non-rivals. "Canucks-Hurricanes? Twice? Yes!"

It's a little-known fact that Devan Dubnyk is a decent, perhaps even pretty good, goaltender. One dashing hockey analyst thought Dubnyk could be one of the best free-agent bargains last summer, all he needed was a good team.

Dubnyk had a .917 save percentage over three seasons with some bad Oilers teams then fell apart during the 2013-14 season, and suddenly he was this bad goalie no one wanted. Is it because of the "doob" sound in his name? Is that a goofy sound, so somehow his performances don't matter? These are the things I wonder, like how some hockey coaches have their jobs only because they look like hockey coaches.

Dubnyk had a .916 on the tire fire Coyotes while Mike Smith barfed on himself regularly, and now Dubnyk's been excellent on a great possession team in Minnesota. Somehow, I don't think he's getting four shutouts every eight starts the rest of the way, but he's pretty good.

Unlike Dubnyk, there's enough evidence to support the hypothesis that Jonas Gustavsson is not good. Is he better than Cam Talbot? Probably not. But he's probably better than Mackenzie Skapski, who will back up Talbot while Henrik Lundqvist is out at least three weeks, likely longer, with his vascular injury. I don't know who would want Gustavsson.

Do the Rangers want to add a 49th contract to their roster? Do they want to remain more flexible for the trade deadline? Can Skapski do what Gustavsson can in two starts while Talbot does the rest?

Those are a lot of questions, and I expect you to answer them in your mailbag next week.

I like the use of suitor. It's very Glass Menagerie. Please refer to all dates as "gentleman callers," ladies.

My advice: Get it out there before you even leave for the date.

Have him pick you up. Come to the door dressed normally. Invite him in to meet your (roommate, cat, parents, whatever) and play it cool. This is the living room, the dining area, here's where my cat uses the bathroom indoors and it's treated like a normal thing socially when it really shouldn't be, etc. All that stuff.

Then say, "Here, let me show you my bedroom."

Forward? Sure. But here's where you drop the hammer.

Have Canadiens sheets, posters, autographed pictures, bobbleheads, logos, My Little Pony drawings with players' heads on them, a life-sized Carey Price doll. But act like it's totally normal. Just open the door, let him peak in from the hallway. "This is my bedroom, sorta small but I do what I can with decorations. Anyway, there's a coffee place around the corner."

Let him stew on that the rest of the date. If he calls again, you have a winner. If not, you'll always have your Center Ice package.

All statistics via NHL.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. Cap information via Spotrac.

Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.