NFL Free Agency 100: Top 6 4-3 Outside Linebackers
We love to rank things in the NFL world, and ranking free agents is no different. But this time they’re being ranked with a scouting emphasis to give a full picture of what type of player each team is getting with a free-agent contract.
The goal of the NFL Free Agency 100 is to look at each player the way an NFL front office will view them. By evaluating on-field play (production), past injuries (durability), off-field and locker room behavior (intangibles), potential as a player (upside) and then the type of contract expected (value), we’re able to get a complete image of the player.
In the case of ties, I have asked myself, "Which player would I rather have on my team?" and set the rankings accordingly.
Subjective? Yes. But ties are no fun.
Each player was scouted by myself and a team of experienced evaluators, with these key criteria in mind. The following scouting reports and grades are the work of months of film study from our team.
All statistics from Pro Football Focus. Players' heights, weights and seasons from NFL.com.
6. Justin Durant, Dallas Cowboys
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Production
A 12-game starter over the last two seasons in Dallas, Justin Durant is a midline starter with the ability to play either strong-side or weak-side linebacker. He’s an able tackler and run defender but doesn’t offer much help as a pass-rusher or cover man.
Durability
A biceps injury kept Durant off the field for 10 games this season. That will be something to monitor moving forward, but it isn’t likely to be an injury that keeps him from playing in 2015.
Intangibles
Durant was arrested during his rookie season (2007) but hasn’t had any issues since then.
Upside
Durant has played for three teams in his eight seasons and enters 2015 as a 29-year-old (almost 30) fringe starter. His best football is what we’ve seen, and while he’s a capable scheme fit in a 4-3 defense, he isn’t a long-term answer at linebacker.
Value
The former second-round-pick isn’t likely to see big money on the open market, especially with the biceps injury hanging over him. Durant could be a nice pickup after the first wave of free agency and offer an impact as a two-down linebacker.
Overall
5. Bruce Carter, Dallas Cowboys
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Production
Bruce Carter left North Carolina as a highly touted outside linebacker prospect, but he struggled to find his footing in Dallas while the Cowboys ran a 3-4 defense. The move to a 4-3 in 2013 saw his stock soar, and during the last two years, he’s been a productive, athletic presence on defense. Carter’s five interceptions in 2014 are evidence of his range and rare athletic skills.
Durability
Carter tore his ACL during his senior season at North Carolina and has been dogged by other injuries throughout his NFL career, like the knee injury suffered in the playoffs. In four seasons, he has not played a full 16 games.
Intangibles
Carter has no issues that need to be addressed either on or off the field.
Upside
If healthy, Carter has big potential. The issue has been long-term health and finding the right role in a defense. He’s definitely at home in a 4-3 scheme and playing off the ball.
Value
Carter may not be a high-profile signing, but he could have a big year one impact as a three-down linebacker for any team interested in his services as a weak-side linebacker.
Overall
4. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos
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Production
Drafted in the fifth round by the Jacksonville Jaguars, Brandon Marshall reinvented himself as a weak-side linebacker for the Denver Broncos in 2014 and became a go-to starter opposite Von Miller. Marshall is a productive tackler who will throw in a few sacks and is capable of making plays on the ball in coverage too.
Durability
In three seasons, Marshall has stayed mostly healthy, only missing time with a foot injury. He was a 13-game starter in 2014 and leaves his rookie contract with a clean bill of health.
Intangibles
Going from Jacksonville to Denver took hard work and patience. Going from the bench to a starting role took perseverance. Marshall hasn’t shown any indication that he’s a risk off the field.
Upside
Have we seen what Marshall is capable of, or was he protected by an all-star defense around him? That’s the big question mark as he heads toward free agency.
Value
Marshall is in a good place to demand a starter’s salary, but he has a small sample size, and you could argue he benefited from the team around him. He could still be a great value, and a starter, for many 4-3 defenses.
Overall
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3. Malcolm Smith, Seattle Seahawks
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Production
The MVP of Super Bowl XLVIII, Malcolm Smith has been a part-time starter in the Seattle Seahawks defense. He’s on the field often as a three-down player, but he does come off the field to allow for Bruce Irvin’s role as a pass-rusher. Smith has the tools to be a starter, though, and has shown ability as a coverage linebacker. He is undersized (6’0”, 226 lbs) and will be a fit for some schemes more than others. Atlanta has to be considered a favorite for his services with Dan Quinn as the head coach.
Durability
Smith comes into free agency with few injury concerns. He had a groin injury affect him midseason, but he looks to have a clean bill of health now.
Intangibles
From seventh-rounder to Super Bowl MVP, Smith has proved himself to be a hard worker and a high-character player. There are no issues or concerns here.
Upside
Smith isn’t a fit for everyone, but he has upside as a starting outside linebacker. In many situations, he could be the ideal weak-side or nickel ‘backer.
Value
Being a part-time starter in Seattle may drive down Smith’s asking price, but he’s a starter-quality player hitting the market as he reaches his prime. Can he succeed outside of Seattle, though?
Overall
2. Akeem Ayers, New England Patriots
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Production
Akeem Ayers was headed for “bust” status until the New England Patriots traded for him during the 2014 season. Once in New England, Ayers took off, showing the three-down skills that made him a second-round pick coming out of UCLA in the 2011 NFL draft. He possesses excellent length, burst and awareness and showed all three while working as a pass-rusher, run-stuffer and coverage linebacker this fall.
Durability
Ayers had two knee surgeries before the 2014 season and looked like a new player once he was back on the field. He has a clean bill of health leading into the offseason.
Intangibles
A hard worker who has gone from top-tier draft prospect to backup in Tennessee and now back to being a star for the Patriots, Ayers has no issues off the field.
Upside
The best move for Ayers is staying in New England, where he’s been a huge boost to its scheme, but he does have upside to other teams willing to utilize his talents. He’s a fit in a 3-4 edge scheme or as a 4-3 weak-side linebacker.
Value
Ayers can step in and be a starter in 2015, that much is a given. He’s also likely to be a bargain as a signing due to limited time as a starter.
Overall
1. Sean Weatherspoon, Atlanta Falcons
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Production
Injuries have kept Sean Weatherspoon off the field for much of the last two seasons (just seven games played), but when he was healthy, he showed the talents to be a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Weatherspoon is an athletic, active outside linebacker in the mold of the highly athletic, three-down outside linebackers currently in high demand.
Durability
A knee injury kept Weatherspoon out of nine games in 2013, and an Achilles injury cost him the entire 2014 season. Signing Weatherspoon means you’re comfortable with his rehab and potential.
Intangibles
Weatherspoon is a clean player both on and off the field. There are no character concerns to address.
Upside
A healthy Weatherspoon has a ton of upside, especially given the limited wear and tear on his shoulders and joints over the last two seasons. But there is the downside of never getting back to his pre-injury form.
Value
Injuries will no doubt drive down Weatherspoon’s value on the open market, but he has starter value if healthy and is the best outside linebacker on the free-agent market.
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