2015 NFL Free Agents: Overview of Top Buzz and Predictions

Although the NFL postseason is reaching its pinnacle with four teams remaining, offseason preparations are well underway for the other 28 organizations.  With the start of free agency roughly two months away, the roster-building portion of the NFL calendar will kick into gear imminently.

For now, most of the free-agent buzz is internal, as teams are trying to assess the likelihood that they can keep their most important stars.  There haven't been too many clues connecting free agents to other teams, though those rumors should pick up once front offices get their salary-cap outlook in order.

So while it's early in the process, teams have already given hints surrounding some of the biggest names on the market.  Here's the latest news surrounding a trio of potentially season-changing free agents, with early predictions on where they may ultimately sign in the spring.

Julius Thomas to Hit Open Market?

The pain from the stunning end to the Denver Broncos' season could extend to the offseason, as John Elway and the front office face some tough decisions this spring.  While most of the attention has centered around a certain quarterback, two of Peyton Manning's most prolific weapons, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas, are both hitting free agency in March.

Demaryius figures to remain Denver's top priority, and the franchise tag looms as a fail-safe that the Broncos are likely to use if a long-term extension doesn't come to fruition.  However, as ESPN's Field Yates notes, that could leave the Pro Bowl tight end out in the cold (subscription required):

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There's another touchdown-catching Thomas in Denver who is headed to free agency, but it may not be quite as clear what path the Broncos should take with tight end Julius Thomas. That's not because he isn't a very good player, but rather due to financial management and cap planning for the Broncos. If the team is unable to reach a long-term deal with Demaryius Thomas, he's an easy choice for the franchise tag. In that scenario, Julius Thomas would have a shot to reach the open market. With a roster that has other young players eventually in line for an extension, there's probably a dollar value for Julius Thomas at which the team must draw the line.

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For Denver, committing so many financial resources to the receiving corps could leave them thin elsewhere, as the Broncos' free-agent class is dizzying.  Denver has nine starters hitting free agency, and that doesn't include niche contributors like Paul Cornick, Quinton Carter or Jacob Tamme.  As such, many believe that the Broncos simply won't have the budget to fit Thomas into their plans: 

Ultimately, perhaps Thomas follows offensive coordinator Adam Gase, though Gase himself may wind up returning as Denver's head coach.  There's speculation that Gase could actually remain an offensive coordinator for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have oodles of cap space and a need at the position.  It would be an out-of-nowhere splash signing, but we'll make Gase's potential employer the tentative favorite for now.

Prediction: Thomas signs with Jaguars

Sanchez-Ryan Reunion?

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With Rex Ryan surprisingly moving north to upstate New York, buzz has quickly built about a possible reunion with Mark Sanchez, Ryan's first draft pick for the New York Jets.  As CSNPhilly.com's Geoff Mosher relays, Ryan acknowledged the possibility of inking Sanchez this spring:

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New Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan said Tuesday in his introductory press conference that he would ponder reuniting with Mark Sanchez in the AFC East next season.

'Certainly he’ll be a guy under consideration,' Ryan said, according to numerous reports coming from the press conference.

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Beleaguered first-rounder EJ Manuel was benched under Doug Marrone's watch, and Sanchez outperformed Manuel in virtually every per-pass rate stat.  However, Manuel's 2.7 percent career interception rate is well below Sanchez's 3.7 percent pick rate, a trait that some suggest could give him the upper hand in Ryan's view:

However, those who were close to the Jets during Ryan's tenure believe that his tepid praise of Manuel during his press conference was mostly coachspeak, comparing it to his attitude toward the maddening Geno Smith:

Neither Sanchez nor Manuel has ever finished as a top-20 quarterback based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, an opponent-adjusted measure of success rate.  Even remotely competent quarterback play figures to vault the 9-7 Buffalo Bills into the postseason.  Despite being saddled with a poor passing game, the Bills were still an advanced metrics darling, finishing ninth in DVOA and 10th in Gross Winning Percentage (GWP).

The free-agent quarterback market is completely barren, and with no first-round pick, the Bills would likely need to settle for a project like Brett Hundley.  Buffalo doesn't seem like a logical trading partner for someone like Jay Cutler, so without much of a lifeline in any avenue, signing Sanchez simply looks like the most palatable of several unappetizing options.

Prediction: Sanchez signs with Bills

JPP Sticking Around?

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The New York Giants are in the midst of a rebuild, having missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since their Super Bowl-winning 2011 campaign.  As such, those close to the organization believe that it's a no-brainer for Big Blue to keep Jason Pierre-Paul, one of the few big draft hits they've procured in recent years:

Pierre-Paul accrued 12.5 sacks in his fifth year, his highest total since his 16.5-sack breakout back in 2011.  However, that number alone doesn't do justice to his strong rebound season after a debilitating back injury derailed him in 2013.  According to Pro Football Focus' grades (subscription required), Pierre-Paul's plus-11.9 grade against the run ranked sixth-best among all 4-3 defensive ends.  

Consequently, his plus-16.9 overall grade ranked seventh at the position.  Though the sack numbers are a little lower, a lot of JPP's peripheral stats from this past season were quite comparable to his 2011 campaign: 

Season	Run Grade	Rush Grade	Pressures	Stops
2014	+11.9	+5.6	60	49
2011 (reg. season only)	+6.4	+12.8	56	43

The market is pretty thin on pure 4-3 ends, with the embattled Greg Hardy and Jerry Hughes serving as the other top names, though a few 3-4 outside linebackers like Dwight Freeney and Brandon Graham have skill sets that make them appealing 4-3 options.  Regardless, the position scarcity could actually work against Pierre-Paul's return to Gotham, as he'll arguably be the top edge-rusher on the market (assuming Justin Houston doesn't flee Kansas City).

Some reports suggest the Giants are unlikely to franchise Pierre-Paul, though owner John Mara hasn't ruled out using the $15 million tag that would make Pierre-Paul the second-highest-paid 4-3 defensive end in the league.  The Giants have traditionally done a nice job of retaining their home-grown talent, though, so look for the front office to employ whatever means necessary to keep the promising edge-rusher.

Prediction: Pierre-Paul franchised by Giants