Is General Manager Dave Nonis the Real Problem with the Toronto Maple Leafs?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have dismissed their coach, but the question on many minds now is whether general manager Dave Nonis should follow Randy Carlyle out of the organization.  

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As with any coach firing, Carlyle's dismissal earlier this week raised the question of how much blame he should take for the team's failings. Ron Wilson, who was Carlyle's predecessor in Toronto, was one of those who blamed the players. In an interview with TSN radio, he suggested that the only way to improve the team was to make some trades to change out some of the core:

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You have to change some of the players, and eventually they will. I don’t think they will right now because I don’t think there are a lot of trading partners for a lot of these players but they’re going to come to that sooner or later I’m feeling. Some of the core players have failed under two or three different coaches, so it’s got to be the players’ fault.

"

Of course, that sort of criticism of the roster is also tantamount to criticism of the general manager who assembled it. Nonis has been with the Leafs since 2008 but in the top job only since January 2013, so let’s take a brief look at what Toronto looked like when he took over the top job and what it looks like now.

Up front, Nonis and his staff have completely reworked the supporting cast, but they have left the leading lights alone. The following roster is based on ice time and ranks the Leafs’ top 14 forwards both now and when Nonis inherited the team (note: both Daniel Winnik and Mike Santorelli have spent time at centre this season, though they are listed here as wingers):

Rosters via NHL.com

Some of these changes have clearly been positive, such as the decision to dump a trio of enforcers at the end of the roster and replace them with players with the potential to impact a hockey game. Unfortunately, they’re overshadowed by moves higher up the food chain. Moving away from the end of the roster, Nonis has essentially swapped one forward line for another:

• Then: Clarke MacArthur—Mikhail Grabovski—Nikolay Kulemin
• Now: Daniel Winnik—Peter Holland—David Clarkson

Even in a down year for the Grabovski/Kulemin duo, the ex-Leafs are outscoring the current Leafs by a 23-19 ratio, and the other nice thing about the ex-Leafs is keeping them would have avoided blowing money on a Grabovski buyout or signing Clarkson to a long-term buyout-proof contract that runs until his 36th birthday in the year 2020.

The situation is a little better on the back end:

Rosters via NHL.com

Nonis’ big move in Toronto, as it was in Vancouver, was identifying and bringing in a quality No. 1 goalie. For the Canucks it was Roberto Luongo, while for the Leafs it is Jonathan Bernier. The move was criticized at the time as an extravagance given that the Leafs already had James Reimer, but it’s worked out beautifully for the team.

The defence hasn’t seen a lot of change. Jake Gardiner (who was exiled to the AHL in 2012-13) and Morgan Rielly (a 2012 fifth overall pick) were both inherited by Nonis, which means his only real additions have been Roman Polak (acquired in trade for Carl Gunnarsson) and free-agent addition Stephane Robidas.

The early returns on the Polak-Gunnarsson deal are decent, with Polak playing slightly higher on the Leafs' depth chart than Gunnarsson did, but Robidas is a 37-year-old third-pairing defenceman signed for this season and two more at a $3.0 million cap hit.

Graig Abel/Getty Images

On balance, this particular look highlights some positives and some negatives over Nonis’ short time at the helm in Toronto. The biggest positive is the addition of Bernier, a legitimate No. 1 goalie, while the team has also done some good work overhauling its forward depth under Nonis’ watch.

The negatives include a series of ill-judged moves up front (in particular the Clarkson contract), a lack of action on defence and an inability to add impact players at forward, particularly down the middle where the Leafs are weakest. 

As The Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle notes, the situation would be worse if not for some dodged bullets along the way, such as Dave Bolland signing in Florida instead of Toronto and Josh Gorges turning down a trade to the Leafs. 

It’s not easy to make a definitive judgment on a general manager after just two years. What we can say is that based on what he’s done so far, the Leafs are not significantly better, and under his watch the organization has a disturbing tendency to waste money on buyouts and rich contracts for second-tier free agents.  

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com; salary information via NHLNumbers.com. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.